With less than two weeks to go for nomination day, the disunited United National Party (UNP) managed to show a united face at least superficially and nominate the Party's Deputy Leader Sajith Premadasa as its presidential nominee.
No doubt the manner in which the UNP hierarchy closed ranks and agreed on Premadasa at the eleventh hour with little or no fuss has raised more than a few eyebrows as to whether the whole thing was a well orchestrated drama by the bigwigs at Sirikotha to hog the media limelight.
If in fact there was such a plan in motion, it certainly worked with Premadasa hogging the headlines all week. What is feeding the speculation is the fact that in the end, it was none other than Party Leader Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe who proposed Premadasa for the presidency and both the Working Committee (WC) as well as the parliamentary group unanimously endorsed Premadasa with no sign of any conditions. Given the perceived animosity between the two camps, how things turned out to be this smooth for Premadasa is a matter for contemplation.
In fact, the opposing camp which had fallen hook, line, and sinker for the bait was authoritatively predicting a break-up of the party in to three or four factions. Now, with none of that materialising, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) has well and truly been caught off guard.
As a matter of fact, the breakaway groups and factions of the UNP that had an axe to grind with Wickremesinghe have shown an inclination to join the Premadasa bandwagon, with the likes of former UNP General Secretary Tissa Attanayake and former Puttalam District MP Neomal Perera leading the way.
Chances are that many of the other UNP deserters who are now getting a raw deal in the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and have been waiting for an excuse to jump ship, may accept Premadasa's open invitation to rejoin the party which no doubt will cause more than a few headaches for the SLPP.
The SLFP's decision on the presidential election is to be finalised tomorrow (30) while the campaign is currently geared for a two-horse race with the other 16 or 17 candidates providing entertainment value.
Although Premadasa has been waxing eloquent on not being anybody's puppet, it is an open secret that those days are far from over, for Premadasa himself has proven to be pliable in the hands of a few individuals who continue to call the shots.
We have long speculated in these very columns that the infamous last supper of hoppers between Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena just before the latter's announcement as the common candidate back in November 2014 was a well -lanned ploy to sterilise him from being sounded out as a Rajapaksa proxy. Five years down the road, it is looking increasingly clear that Sirisena in fact was a hedge that was put in case of a Rajapaksa loss in the 2015 election.
There is nothing to show in the past five years that he has not acted in the interest of the former President, going so far as to illegally appoint him as Prime Minister last year.
The fact that the SLFP Leader has turned a blind eye to Rajapaksa even forming a new party and taking its membership while still retaining his SLFP parliamentary seat for Kurunegala, if nothing else, goes to show the extent of the deception.
The Premadasa nomination saga has taken on a similar flavour with the question remaining as to who he is hedging. For all intents and purposes, Sirikotha seems to have not only learnt the fine art of the Medamulana magic but gone one step ahead, beating the Rajapaksas at their own game.
The bottom line is that just as much as the Rajapaksa family continues to have a stranglehold on the SLPP and SLFP by extension, the Premadasa nomination will ensure job security for the UNP hierarchy as well. As they say, the more things change, the more they remain the same.
Be that as it may, if Premadasa was to prevail on 17 November, then he has his hands full dealing with the trade unions in multiple sectors who are on a collision course with the Government. There is a fair degree of suspicion that the hand behind the trade union action is the SLPP and a Cabinet-appointed subcommittee is now in place to look in to this. However, trade union action will be a thing of the past should Rajapaksa win the presidency, simply going by past experiences.
With everything to lose, a no-holds-barred campaign is on the cards. The famous “files” that were waved around to prevent crossovers will be dusted and put to use for the same purpose in the next few weeks as more and more MPs indulge in the crossover game and cash in on the opportunity. However, the “file threat” didn't prevent S.B. Nawinne from pledging support to Premadasa yesterday.
Premadasa has played his cards well in mobilising the masses and has called for public submissions to be included in his manifesto. None of the other main candidates have spoken of a manifesto as yet, although a maverick lawyer contesting for the post has spoken of one, where the majority of his proposals cannot be implemented without parliamentary approval.
In the absence of a single MP to support him in Parliament, how he plans to implement his plan remains to be seen. The danger is that the ordinary voter may not look at the practicality of implementing the promises being made and fall for the rhetoric, only to be disappointed once again.
The past four-plus years have shown the limits of presidential power in the absence of majority backing in Parliament. With further pruning of powers in accordance with the 19th Amendment coming into full force with the appointment of the next president, it is Parliament that will wield real power. In that sense, the real battle for power may not be the election ahead.