The last week brought with it a tectonic shift in the political calculus of the upcoming presidential election. On Thursday (26), a fever-pitched and months-long debate in the United National Party (UNP) culminated in the party lining up unanimously and unconditionally behind the presidential candidacy of Deputy Leader Minister Sajith Premadasa. Premadasa, who began his push for the candidacy last month, was widely expected to be shunned by Party Leader Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe who controls the all-powerful Working Committee (WC) of the party – its decision-making body. As Premadasa gradually and publicly eschewed core party policies such as abolishing the executive presidency and meaningfully devolving power to the provinces, civil society groups and minority parties such as the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) had begun gravitating towards Speaker Karu Jayasuriya as a potential moderate compromise candidate. Jayasuriya did not refuse the overtures but eventually saw the writing on the wall. Any overt push by him for the presidential candidacy was bound to lead to a sharp and divisive split within the UNP’s ranks. Thus, from Friday (20) last week, the Speaker made it clear to Party Leader Wickremesinghe and Premadasa that he was out of the running and engaged directly with the two party leaders to unite the UNP behind Premadasa. Over a series of high-stakes meetings hosted at the Speaker’s Residence, Wickremesinghe and Premadasa thrashed out a number of issues. With Jayasuriya’s assent, the young Deputy Leader challenged Wickremesinghe to appreciate the democratic stance taken by elected party representatives of every level. Wickremesinghe retorted that rabid support within the UNP alone would not bring about a UNP victory and that all minority parties and civil society movements would need to join the platform if the Rajapaksas were to be convincingly defeated. More than a dozen meetings took place at Jayasuriya’s residence, which became the hub for resolving the UNP dispute. Most of the meetings were tri-partite between the Speaker, Wickremesinghe, and Premadasa. Some were one-on-one with either Wickremesinghe or Premadasa, and others included loyalists of the Leader or Deputy Leader such as Ministers Ravi Karunanayake or Mangala Samaraweera, respectively. As the dialogue pressed on, both Premadasa and Wickremesinghe softened their positions. Behind the scenes, pressure was brought on Wickremesinghe by many in Jayasuriya’s circle and other party loyalists, not to resort to the tricks of the past, such as increasing the size of the UNP WC by packing it with loyalists. United National Front (UNF) representative Minister Dr. Rajitha Senaratne, who has been co-ordinating the formation of a broad political alliance, also played a key role in uniting the Wickremesinghe and Premadasa factions. At the same time, Premadasa was pushed to not rest on his laurels but to take seriously the policy compromises that would be necessary to build an unstoppable alliance and govern after the election. By last Tuesday (24), a tentative agreement was reached, as Wickremesinghe signalled he was ready to give the candidacy to Premadasa, and the Deputy Leader, on his own initiative, began exploring a policy platform that could bring together civil society groups, the SLFP, and the TNA. Gradually, more and more Wickremesinghe loyalists, from Senaratne and Advisor Dinesh Weerakkody to National Organiser Navin Dissanayake began signalling that a Premadasa candidacy was the way forward. Reaching a consensus After a meeting of UNP leadership held at Temple Trees last Thursday (26) morning, Dissanayake emerged and declared to reporters that the UNP WC would meet that afternoon to unanimously adopt a proposal put forward by Wickremesinghe that Premadasa be made the unconditional presidential nominee of the UNP and its alliance partners. Dissanayake’s comments were echoed by UNP Spokesman Harin Fernando shortly thereafter, and sure enough, on Thursday afternoon, the WC met and threw the party’s weight behind Premadasa without any conditions. Congratulatory messages began to stream in from minority parties and civil society groups relieved that the crisis was over. The role played by Dr. Senaratne in bringing about an end to the months-long feud within the UNP is commendable. On Thursday morning, Premadasa telephoned Dr. Senaratne and asked him to reason everything out with Wickremesinghe, especially about the abolition of the executive presidency. Premadasa invited Dr. Senaratne for the discussion scheduled at 9 a.m. that day at Temple Trees. Dr. Senaratne, after listening to Premadasa, understood the former’s concerns, but declined to accept the invitation to attend the meeting as a member of Premadasa’s delegation as it would give the wrong impression to Wickremesinghe. A few minutes later, Dr. Senaratne received a telephone call from Dinesh Weerakkody. Dr. Senaratne explained to him the conversation with Premadasa and his invitation for him (Senaratne) to attend the morning meeting. Weerakkody immediately informed Prime Minister Wickremesinghe about Premadasa’s request for Dr. Senaratne to attend the meeting. Wickremesinghe informed Dr. Senaratne through Weerakkody that he was welcome and the only reason he was not invited for the meeting was the possible objections that could have been raised by the Premadasa loyalists. However, since Premadasa had himself invited Dr. Senaratne, there would not be any issue. As soon as Dr. Senaratne entered the room at Temple Trees where the meeting was to take place, Premadasa asked him to sit beside him. Dr. Senaratne explained to Wickremesinghe that while the abolition of the executive presidency was a priority to him, it should be carried out in a practical manner. “It is not fair to expect a young leader to abolish the executive presidency a few months after assuming office. There should then be a guarantee that he would be the Prime Minister. Otherwise, he is reduced to a parliamentarian. I think we should abolish the executive presidency without rushing it through and with the support of all parliamentarians,” Dr. Senaratne said at the meeting, adding: “We must go for a win-win situation for all.” After listening intently, Wickremesinghe said he understood the issue, but expressed concerns on whether the TNA would agree to Dr. Senaratne’s explanation. Several telephone calls were then exchanged between the TNA hierarchy and it was agreed to reach a middle path on the time frame to abolish the executive presidency while giving it top priority status. In the absence of formal statements from UNF party leaders, a photograph circulated on social media with Premadasa at the Finance Ministry flanked by several UNP heavyweights and UNF leaders Champika Ranawaka, Rauff Hakeem, Rishad Bathiudeen, and Mano Ganesan, all smiling and making the “thumbs up” sign. The following day at the Finance Ministry, Premadasa met with several civil society leaders to thrash out a platform that unified their positions on key policy issues such as the fate of the executive presidency, a new constitution with power sharing to the provinces, the death penalty, and governance principles. Meanwhile, a committee was appointed yesterday (28) to formulate Premadasa’s election manifesto. The committee includes Ministers Samaraweera, Dr. Senaratne, Ranawaka, Kariyawasam, Kabir Hashim, and MP Chathura Senaratne. Those who attended a meeting held last morning between Premadasa and UNF representatives also agreed to follow the campaign structure proposed by Prime Minister Wickremesinghe. It was unanimously decided to follow Wickremesinghe’s model as it was considered simple and easy to monitor. Premadasa shocks SLPP Off to a roaring start, the Premadasa campaign hit the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) like an earthquake, as fears heightened of a unified UNF campaign’s prospects for poaching disgruntled members from the party’s ranks, and further diminished the odds of a Premadasa-friendly President Maithripala Sirisena endorsing an alliance between his party and the SLPP. Even as the SLPP began to grasp the potential reality of the UNP, Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC), TNA, and other minority parties rallying the electorate against them, more and more details began to seep into public view from the ongoing investigation into the citizenship status of SLPP presidential hopeful Gotabaya Rajapaksa, as investigators have filed three “B Reports” with the Colombo Chief Magistrate's Court over the past week. According to the reports seen by The Black Box, the investigation is wide ranging and based on separate complaints lodged with the Inspector General of Police (IGP) in August by good governance activists Gamini Viyangoda and Prof. Chandraguptha Thenuwara. One aspect of the investigation, whether Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s dual citizenship had been legally obtained, has become a cause for mounting concern. The Criminal Investigation Department (CID) had told court that there is no evidence of a dual citizenship application file for Rajapaksa at the Ministry of Defence, Immigration Department, or the Home Affairs Ministry. Investigators also said that in Immigration Department systems, two different people had been registered under the certificate number issued to Rajapaksa – 15305. However, Rajapaksa had met with the Election Commission (EC) and showed them his dual citizenship certificate, assuring them that it was an authentic document and that everything was in order. Meanwhile, the CID revelations are widely expected to give rise to legal challenges next week on whether or not Gotabaya Rajapaksa is a Sri Lankan citizen qualified to be nominated as a presidential candidate, and to take oaths as President. The SLPP had already filed a deposit signalling the party’s intention to nominate Rajapaksa as their candidate, but these new developments have raised the question of whether the party would take the risk of a last-minute disqualification, which would result in the disenfranchisement of their estimated voter base of up to six million Sri Lankans, unless the party was to nominate a less technically vulnerable candidate. The former Defence Secretary had taken an extraordinary leap of faith and demonstrated his bona fides to the party and commitment to the election by renouncing his American citizenship earlier this year, and remaining focused on the campaign even while recovering from open heart surgery and fending off criminal investigations and trials in multiple courts in Sri Lanka and California. Many SLPP seniors loyal to Gotabaya Rajapaksa say that for the party to abandon their candidate when the going gets tough would amount to a betrayal that the electorate would not soon forgive. SLPP alliance The primary goal of the SLPP in the coming week is to strike an agreement to contest with the SLPP under an alliance, with neither party budging on the symbol under which the presidential election will be contested. The SLPP is insisting on using their “flower bud” symbol, while the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) has insisted on a common symbol. Talks between the two parties are expected to continue tomorrow, but the close relationship between SLFP Leader President Sirisena and UNF presidential candidate Premadasa has blown open a can of worms for the SLPP, raising the spectre of the UNF striking an agreement to support Premadasa’s victory. Any decision by the SLFP other than backing the SLPP would place the Rajapaksa candidacy in peril. Were the SLFP to join the UNP’s Premadasa alliance under the swan symbol, the party’s one million-plus votes would gravitate in the direction of the UNP. Instead, if the SLFP fielded its own candidate and vied to split the left-wing vote, such an effort too could eat deeply into the SLPP vote base. Last week, SLFP General Secretary MP Dayasiri Jayasekara revealed that the party was considering forming a leftist alliance and contesting separately. While he said the party candidate was likely to be President Sirisena, it is learnt that the President is extremely unlikely to deviate from his 2015 promise to the electorate that he would not seek a second term. Jayasekara insisted that as long as the SLPP was not prepared to agree to a symbol acceptable to the SLFP, it was not possible for the SLFP to enter into an alliance with the SLPP. “We must listen to our grassroots-level SLFP organisers, voters, and pradeshiya sabha members. We cannot betray the trust placed in us by our voters. If we join the SLPP, we must do it with dignity and self-respect. We cannot do so simply because it has a bigger vote base. But what the SLPP must keep in mind is that no candidate will be able to win without the support of the SLFP. That is definite,” Jayasekara said. Vying for the candidacy is one-time SLPP Badulla Organiser and senior SLFP MP Kumar Welgama, who has made it clear that he would be ready to contest as the SLFP’s candidate. He claims an uninterrupted 38-year stint in the party during which he has remained loyal to the party. However, the General Secretary sees the prospect differently. “It is true that Welgama is back at the SLFP. That is after a long journey with the SLPP against the SLFP and becoming the SLPP District Organiser of Badulla. Besides, I cannot understand how he opposes Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s candidacy while worshipping Mahinda Rajapaksa. Therefore, I assure you that Welgama will not be the SLFP presidential candidate. We still maintain that President Sirisena will most likely be the SLFP candidate,” the SLFP General Secretary said. Rajapaksas meet Sirisena In an attempt to break the deadlock, a delegation comprising former President and incumbent Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa, candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and Basil Rajapaksa held a meeting yesterday (28) with President Sirisena in a last-ditch effort to win the SLFP’s support for the presidential campaign. While details of the meeting were not known at the time of going to print, it is learnt that the Rajapaksa brothers were prepared to offer the premiership to Sirisena in exchange for him bringing the SLPP into their camp. Meanwhile, SLPP Founder and National Organiser Basil had rushed to assemble an alliance between the Podujana Peramuna and the “Joint Opposition” (JO) parties that supported it, fearing the prospect of disgruntled parties drifting towards the populist-friendly Premadasa camp, following the nomination of Premadasa as the presidential candidate. The SLPP Founder had banked on Wickremesinghe seizing the UNP presidential nomination, as under such a situation there would be no risk of parties such as Dinesh Gunawardena’s Mahajana Ekshath Peramuna (MEP) seeking an arrangement with the UNP. They would have been forced to work with the SLPP with no negotiating power. But now, that dynamic has turned on its head. While Wimal Weerawansa’s National Freedom Front (NFF) and Udaya Gammanpila’s Pivithuru Hela Urumaya are firmly in the Gotabaya Rajapaksa camp, Gunawardena’s MEP and Vasudeva Nanayakkara’s Democratic Left Front (DLF) are not certain to support the SLPP without some concessions. Basil had earlier informed all the “JO” leaders including Gunawardena, Weerawansa, Gammanpila, and Nanayakkara through Mahinda Rajapaksa, that Gotabaya would be put forward as the candidate under the symbol of the “Pohottuwa” after the SLPP forms an alliance with them, calling it the Sri Lanka Podujana Alliance. However, on 20 September, the deposit for Gotabaya Rajapaksa was not paid by an alliance and the promise appeared to have been forgotten. New entrant The coming week marks the last seven days before the deadline for nominations on 7 October and is expected to be packed with last-minute negotiations and political horse trading. The JVP decision to field its Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake is a firm one. The UNP candidate has received a “thumbs up” from the UNF minority parties including the SLMC and Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU). While the TNA has yet to take a formal stance, the chances that they would field a candidate appear remote and the odds of the party supporting Gotabaya Rajapaksa stand at zero. Especially with Premadasa now enjoying the blessings and policymaking support of both Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and Speaker Jayasuriya, the party’s eventual support for the Premadasa candidacy appears inevitable. Several MPs and other former MPs who had left the UNP have begun responding to an open invitation by Premadasa to rejoin the party and work towards prevailing over the SLPP. Former General Secretary Tissa Attanayake was the first to accept the invitation, pledging his unconditional support to Premadasa. Former UNP heavyweight Imthiaz Bakeer Markar is soon expected to follow suit. Yesterday, at a press conference hosted at Minister Samaraweera’s residence, UNP MP S.B. Nawinne, who had previously crossed over to support Mahinda Rajapaksa during the 2018 coup, appeared and pledged his support to Premadasa. Former Minister Neomal Perera also came forward to say he would work towards a Premadasa victory. Meanwhile, a wildcard has entered the race, with former Army Commander Mahesh Senanayake slated to announce his own entrée into the presidential sweepstakes. Senanayake has assembled the backing of several groups of academics, professionals, and civil society activists who have grown disgusted with the major parties and are seeking to advocate “true” good governance in the country, as opposed to business as usual. The platform is expected to be one similar to the JVP’s and may have the effect of eating into that party’s anti-establishment voter base more so than taking votes away from either the UNP or SLPP candidates. The candidacy could otherwise damage both UNP and SLPP platforms. As a former military officer, Senanayake is well-placed to detail evidence he saw with his own eyes pertaining to the alleged involvement of military intelligence officers in the murders of journalists including Lasantha Wickrematunge during the Rajapaksa regime. He is similarly in a position as Army Commander under the Yahapalanaya Government to expose the steps taken by the incumbent Government to cover up these crimes. It is this kind of political wheeler-dealing, Senanayake’s supporters say, that has led a movement to shun the main parties and seek truly accountable and disciplined governance. Senanayake’s platform is supported by the influential Sarvodaya organisation as well as former senior public servants such as former Additional Solicitor General Srinath Perera. Meanwhile, several trade unions associated with the SLPP, from teachers to railway workers and disabled soldiers, have launched co-ordinated strikes across the country, purportedly on the basis of salary anomalies, but with the expected end result of portraying the Government as weak and inept, in a move to strengthen calls for a “strong” Gotabaya Rajapaksa presidency. The strikes culminated on Friday with an emergency Cabinet meeting chaired by President Sirisena, to decide on how the Government should respond. The occasion marked the warmest and most cordial exchange between the President and the UNF Cabinet since the end of the 26 October 2018 constitutional coup. The President was in high spirits and could barely contain his glee at Premadasa’s nomination as a presidential candidate. He was friendly with the UNF ministers and offered his congratulations. The Cabinet resolved to appoint a five-member subcommittee to report on options for resolving the strikes. Their report and recommendations are expected to be available for discussion at this Tuesday’s regular Cabinet meeting. The tenor at the Cabinet meeting left little room for suspicion that Sirisena would lead his SLFP into the Rajapaksa camp, but the party’s ultimate decision on the matter is expected to be announced tomorrow (30) after the SLFP Central Committee (CC) meeting scheduled for 7 p.m. at the President’s official residence. However, the CC would discuss the outcome of the Sirisena-Rajapaksa discussions on Saturday (28) and Premadasa’s candidacy before making a final call on the SLFP’s stance at the upcoming presidential polls. Campaign trail Be that as it may, the UNP’s annual party convention is all set to be held at the Sugathadasa Stadium on Thursday, 3 October. Three resolutions are expected to be passed by the party in connection with Premadasa’s nomination, the formation of the electoral alliance, and demonstrating party unity. Meanwhile, preparations are underway for the parties to formally launch their campaigns following the handing over of nominations. The JVP will be the first, set to launch their campaign on 8 October with a series of district meetings. On the 9th, the SLPP campaign is to kick off with a rally in Anuradhapura. The next day, Premadasa and the UNF will launch their campaign at the Galle Face Green in Colombo. In the meantime, all eyes will remain on President Sirisena and the SLFP, whose decision tomorrow could tip the scales of the election and make or break an electoral majority for the SLPP in the final analysis. Should the SLFP break with the SLPP and choose to either go it alone or team up with the Premadasa alliance, the SLPP’s prospects of breaking the elusive 50% barrier will be vested in an effort to unify the Sinhala vote and secure well over 60% of it in the party’s favour, a feat not even achieved by President Mahinda Rajapaksa in the aftermath of the war victory. For Premadasa, the challenge before him will be to combine the re-energising of the UNP base, which has been electrified by his candidacy, with the backing of minority voters and civil society movements in a configuration similar to the coalition that brought Sirisena to victory in 2015. Return of the ‘swan’ The UNP-led Democratic National Front (DNF) that was in the making is now on hold due to the inability to register its symbol due to the holding of the Elpitiya local government election that has prevented the registration of new parties and symbols. The DNF was to be registered as a political party as a replacement for “Ape Jathika Peramuna” under the “telephone” symbol. The party was formerly headed by former Army Commander MP Sarath Fonseka’s loyalist, former military man, Senaka de Silva. Premadasa has two options – to contest under the UNP’s “elephant” symbol or the “swan” symbol of the New Democratic Front (NDF) that was used by common candidates in 2010 and 2015. The NDF is a party consisting Minister Karunanayake’s loyalists and he has agreed to lend the “swan” symbol to Premadasa as well. However, the condition is that the existing party office bearers cannot be changed. On 16 November, the country will learn where the electorate stands. With the exception of the JVP fighting their own campaign, an otherwise intact 2015 coalition will go up against the Rajapaksa juggernaut. The primary difference is that this time, unlike the last, the Rajapaksa coalition does not have the burden of defending an incumbent and unpopular government. In today’s context, that shoe is squarely on the other foot. 2019 will mark the first time since 1994 that two first-time candidates have faced off against each other. Then, it was Gamini Dissanayake, and later his widow Srima Dissanayake, who went up against Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, with none having contested for the presidency before. At least one incumbent has fought every race since. Once again, it is up to the people to decide which of the two first time candidates, Gotabaya Rajapaksa or Sajith Premadasa, will determine their destinies.

Wigneswaran warns Tamils

By Easwaran Rutnam Former Northern Province Chief Minister C.V. Wigneswaran warned Tamils of the consequences they may face no matter which of the two main candidates wins the upcoming presidential election. While the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) has been having talks with the main candidates contesting the November presidential election, mostly with United National Front (UNF) candidate Sajith Premadasa, Wigneswaran has stopped short of supporting anyone. Asked by The Sunday Morning if the Tamil People’s Council (TPC) headed by Wigneswaran had decided on who it will support at the election, Wigneswaran said that the TPC was trying to work out a common strategy ahead of the election. He warned that the Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) will be an integral part of the outfit which heads the next government. Recent actions by the BBS had threatened to stir emotions not only between Buddhists and Muslims, but now Buddhists and Hindus as well. A tense situation arose in Mullaitivu last week over the final rites of a monk being performed. The Mullaitivu Magistrate’s Court had ordered that the final rites of the Chief Incumbent of the Nayaru Rajamaha Vihara be carried out on the beach opposite the temple. Tamil residents in the area had objected to the final rites being conducted in the temple premises as there is a Hindu kovil in the same area. However, several people including the BBS led by Ven. Galagoda Aththe Gnanasara Thera performed the final rites on the temple property. This led to a huge outcry in the North with Tamil lawyers and the general public staging multiple protests last week against the BBS. The BBS was accused of contempt of court and of attempting to instigate violence between Buddhists and Hindus, an allegation the BBS denied. “This is not an accident. It is a well-planned activity. A group of such conspirators wait for a chance to strike just like they did in 1983. When the opportunity arises, they go into action. Such transformation of Hindu temples or areas of Hindu worship into Sinhala-Buddhist areas has been taking place now for a long time. Recently, a similar activity took place at the Kanniya hot water springs. Hot tea was poured on the resident Hindu priest there. Some Tamil persons were attacked by goondas,” Wigneswaran told The Sunday Morning. He alleged that the purpose of these well-planned activities seem to be to alter the demography of the area. “These are traditionally Tamil-speaking areas from pre-Buddhist times. In the very early days, there were Buddhists in these areas over 17 or 18 centuries ago, but they were 'Demala Bauddhayo', to quote Prof. Sunil Ariyaratne. Devanampiya Tissa was a Tamil. After a few centuries, the Tamil Buddhists went back to Hinduism, their original religion. The Sinhala language came into being only in the Sixth or Seventh Century AD and until then, there were no Sinhala-speaking people anywhere in the world. But the BBS and others are of the distorted view that the traditional Tamil-speaking areas were Sinhala-Buddhist, whereas they were Tamil-Buddhist in the earlier years. The Kantharodai remains are from the time of the Demala Bauddhayo,” he said. He said that the idea seems to be to plant Buddhist places of worship in areas where there are no Buddhists in recent centuries and convert the Hindus on one side and to plant Sinhala dayakayas to support the Buddhist monks who take residence at these “illegal places of worship”. “No permission is taken from official institutions to build such Buddhist places of worship. Of course, overall security and cover is given by the forces. Archaeological remains favourable to Tamil or Hindu habitation are surreptitiously removed or destroyed. All this amounts to genocide. Genocide does not only mean killing of a particular group of people; to make their continued residence in their traditional homelands threatened and dangerous also comes under genocide,” the former Supreme Court judge said. Picking up from where it left off Wigneswaran feared that what was taking place now is a continuation of the activities which commenced in the 70s under the Mahaweli Development Authority. “They promised to bring Mahaweli water to the North but up to date, not a drop has come. But Sinhala colonists who were to benefit from such Mahaweli waters have been settled in large numbers in traditionally Tamil areas. They have changed the name of the Tamil village Manalaru into the Sinhala Weli Oya in very recent times. There was no Weli Oya in the map during my student days,” he said. Wigneswaran also called for the withdrawal of the military from the North, accusing them of stage-managing some of the recent tensions. “We do not need them and there is no security risk at all. The Police are well equipped to deal with any situation. No incidents of violent activity for political purposes happened within the past 10 years except those which were stage-managed by the forces to ensure their continued stay here. People soon realised the falsity of such so-called terrorist acts. Not a single case has come up before courts showing political violence that erupted within the last 10 years. Of course, many Tamil persons were taken into custody but there had been no indictments filed against them. They are simply languishing in jail,” he alleged. The Government refused to fully withdraw the Army from the North but has reduced it in numbers, giving priority to national security.