- Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction Project to bite
- No transmission lines from power plants
The main impediment, as explained by a senior engineer attached to the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) who wished to remain anonymous, is the halting of the Greater Colombo Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction Project Phase II. According to him, the project was already finalised and at the implementation level.
The Sunday Morning learnt that following the cancellation of the Japanese-funded transmission project, the CEB was seeking funding from local banks in order to proceed with the project, but had not yet been successful in finalising funding partners.
It is also learnt that even opting to find another prospective investor by following the required procurement processes could take another three years, and until which time, additional power cannot be added to the national grid.
This is a very serious situation where there will be no other solution than to go for intermittent power cuts, especially from 2023.
It is expected that 200 MW would be added to the national grid by 2022 via the 300 MW Lakdhanavi LNG (liquefied natural gas) Power Plant which is to be built in Kerawalapitiya, and that the remaining 100 MW would be added by 2023.
Furthermore, CEB engineers have sought US investors to assess opportunities to fill the power shortage gap by providing 300 MW in the form of a short-term solution for five years, thus giving the CEB time to evaluate the possibilities of connecting the national grid to the Galle Grid Substation as an alternative, due to the lack of the necessary infrastructure in Kerawalapitiya.
“We need another 220 kV transmission line from Kerawalapitiya to Colombo. We only have one such line at present,” the senior engineer explained.
As explained in the CEB’s Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan (LTGEP 2015-2034), natural gas-fired combined cycle power plants and associated LNG import infrastructure, along with two 300 MW dual-fuel combined cycle power plants are to be commissioned in the western region by 2022.
The associated LNG importing infrastructure is to be developed on a fast-track basis with sufficient capacity to cater to both the new power plants and the conversion of other oil-fired combined cycle power plants in the western region.
Furthermore, an additional three 300 MW natural gas combined cycle power plants are expected to be commissioned by 2026 in either Kerawalapitiya or Hambantota. Accordingly, the incorporation of LNG-fired power plants to the Sri Lankan power system was considered in the LTGEP 2015-2034.
Repercussions of LRT withdrawal?
Japan withdrew from the Greater Colombo Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction Project Phase II in May this year, in what is likely a reaction to the suspension of the Colombo LRT Project.
In a letter written to the Director General of the Department of External Resources (ERD) of the Ministry of Finance, and Economic and Policy Development on 7 May 2020, seen by The Sunday Morning, Japan International Co-operation Agency (JICA) has said the Government of Japan would temporarily put on hold the formulation process regarding the Greater Colombo Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction Project Phase II, preventing progress to the appraisal stage.
The letter, which was signed by JICA South Asia Department Division 3 Director Naoaki Miyata, stated: “We regret to say that the Government of Japan will not give a clearance for preceding (sic) the project to appraisal stage until the above-mentioned situations are improved.”
Meanwhile, in an earlier occasion, ERD Director General Ajith Abeysekera said the Government had gone for an open tender process for the Greater Colombo Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction Project Phase II.
Speaking to The Sunday Morning, Power Minister Dullas Alahapperuma denied the allegations levelled by the engineers saying that there would be a severe power shortage due to the lack of transmission infrastructure.
Instead, he said the major issue was the non-commissioning of power plants for seven years since the commissioning of Norochcholai.
He said: "We have a serious issue due to the lack of base power."
However, he accepted that there were issues regarding the transmission infrastructure too, yet stressed that the lack of new power plants to meet the power demand was the major issue the country was facing at present.
Power purchases next year?
In the meantime, when contacted by The Sunday Morning, CEB Chairman Eng. Vijitha Herath stressed that the board would have to go for emergency power purchases next February if the necessity arises.
Accordingly, the energy requirement is expected to reach its peak during February and March 2021. In 2019, it was around 50 GWh.
Whilst due to the Easter attacks in 2019 and the Covid-19 situation this year, the requirement reduced, the engineers still expect the energy requirement to increase to around 55 GWh by next year.
As per the CEB’s estimations, the country would face a power shortage of around 300 MW by February next year.
Speaking to The Sunday Morning, CEB Chairman Eng. Herath said the CEB would purchase 100 MW of emergency power early next year if necessary, to meet the power shortage after assessing the situation.
“This year, due to the Covid situation, we did not have a shortage, as the demand dropped with most of the factories and offices in Colombo closed for nearly three months,” he said, adding that next year, especially during the dry season starting from February, a shortage of nearly 300 MW is expected.
When asked how the emergency power would be purchased, Eng. Herath said there were two contracts which have already received Cabinet approval, which would be signed early next year, if there is a necessity.