Despite the multitude of mitigatory efforts over the past few months, Covid-19 is once again playing havoc in the country. Last week’s explosion of cases stemming from a private apparel manufacturing facility in Minuwangoda is continuing to cause ripples with cases being detected on a daily basis in at least 16 places across the country so far. It seems the worst-case scenario is now upon us and history has taught us that it is better for the authorities to admit the fact at the outset and get down to implementing the required action, rather than live in denial and present a brave face.
For Covid-19 to be tackled, it is essential that the authorities take the people into their confidence and obtain their co-operation to minimise the impact of what is now effectively a second wave. At the end of the day, despite all the regulations in place, if the people don’t co-operate in protecting themselves as well as each other from this raging pandemic, the mitigatory efforts now being rolled out are not likely to have their desired effect. Therefore, it is essential that all stakeholders act in concert so as to mobilise the people to act as the virus guard against this deadly virus.
Sri Lanka was lucky to get off lightly in the first wave, considering the magnitude and scale of the Covid-19 epidemic in neighbouring India, which even last Friday (9) recorded 70,000-plus cases within 24 hours. India is second only to the worst affected country, the US, and currently has nearly seven million cases and 107,000 known deaths. Therefore, it goes without saying that every precaution needs to be taken on the interaction of people between the two countries. The recent proposal of the Minister of Tourism to open up a travel bubble between the two countries for tourism will be like, in the current context, jumping from the frying pan into the fire.
The private enterprise that operates the Minuwangoda apparel manufacturing facility has come under fire, especially on social media, as being responsible for causing the second wave by bringing down a group of people from its production facility in Vishakapatnam, India via a charter flight that arrived at the Mattala Airport on 22 September. However, the criticism seems unfounded based on what the Head of the Covid-19 Task Force has been saying on the likely origins of the source. For all intents and purposes, no one up to now knows how and when Covid-19 manifested in Minuwangoda. Needless to say, it is a worrisome scenario, given Sri Lanka’s proximity to the virus hotbed next door.
Sri Lanka can ill-afford to fall victim to a similar predicament, given the limited healthcare resources and economic repercussions. It is safe to say that the vast majority of private businesses are still reeling from the impact of the first wave, and key sectors like tourism, hospitality, and retail continue to be in the doldrums. As a result, government revenue has been hit hard and making ends meet will be even more challenging in the days ahead. With the situation being what it is, the authorities have no option but to be proactive and nip this latest outbreak in the bud, if that is even possible, given the fact that the cases are already widespread.
It seems the Government is well aware of the need to keep the economy ticking, which is why it has so far desisted from imposing a blanket lockdown like it did in March, restricting such action to specific areas in the Gampaha District. The Government now has to walk a fine line in ensuring the health system does not overheat, while at the same time ensuring that people are able to safely engage in their day-to-day activities without spreading or falling victim to the virus which has also made inroads into the commercial capital with multiple cases being detected over the week.
Since the Government has outlined its strategy, the way forward is by aggressively expanding testing capacity. Rather than waiting for sick people to turn up at hospitals where spreading of the virus may already have happened, it is far more advisable for the health authorities to go to the people instead and carry out random testing at least in the high-risk areas and mitigate possible community spread by identifying and isolating virus carriers. The fact that nearly 90% of positive cases identified at the Minuwangoda facility have been asymptomatic is another challenge that has to be overcome through aggressive testing across vulnerable cities and towns. There is simply no other way than testing, testing, and more testing.
It was pointed out by the Government Medical Officers’ Association (GMOA) last week that ongoing testing is still well below capacity. According to the GMOA, the current testing capacity is around 4,000 tests per day, but only about 2,000 are being carried out at present. If Sri Lanka is to avoid being another India, testing has to be increased rapidly, covering the entire island. It is pointless to bolt the stable door after the horse has bolted, and this is the challenge the health authorities must embrace without delay.
Already many sectors have been adversely affected, even though a general lockdown has not been imposed. Schools, universities, tuition classes, bars, pubs, and nightclubs have been ordered to be shut while a ban has been imposed on any events being held. Many daily wage earners are once again without employment. While restrictions are certainly the need of the hour, these steps must be complemented with health measures in order to stop the spread of the virus. There is no point in keeping state and private sector offices open while cutting down on bus and train services, as the available services are bound to be congested. One way out is for the state sector to embrace smart technology and work remotely.
However, this is easier said than done, as it is akin to letting the fox guard the chicken coop. The million-rupee question is: How do you get the notoriously lethargic and inefficient public sector to work remotely when they don’t even work in their appointed offices? This certainly is a poser for the authorities, but one that needs to be figured out sooner than later since Covid-19 will be around for some time, at least until a vaccine is discovered.
Meanwhile, on the economic front, the Opposition has been complaining that the economic data for the second quarter has not been forthcoming even though it is well past the due date. It does not take Einstein to predict that the full impact of the first lockdown was felt in the second and third quarters of financial year 2020 and the numbers cannot be anything but dire, with the first quarter even before the Covid impact registering a 1.6% contraction. With a second wave now on the horizon, the same is expected to befall the fourth quarter, making 2020 an unprecedented disaster in economic terms.
The World Bank last week gave an indication of what was to be anticipated, forecasting a 6.7% contraction of the economy for the year. To put it into perspective, Sri Lanka’s highest growth rate of 7% was achieved in 2012 and has been on the decline ever since. Now, just eight years later, the economy has shrunk by as much.
Given the status quo, the administration has a Herculean task to get the indicators back in the black, hopefully at some point next year. The World Bank at least is confident of such a prospect as per its forecast released last week. But much needs to be done to get there and every measure taken now to mitigate the second wave of Covid-19 will certainly help the cause.
For Covid-19 to be tackled, it is essential that the authorities take the people into their confidence and obtain their co-operation to minimise the impact of what is now effectively a second wave. At the end of the day, despite all the regulations in place, if the people don’t co-operate in protecting themselves as well as each other from this raging pandemic, the mitigatory efforts now being rolled out are not likely to have their desired effect. Therefore, it is essential that all stakeholders act in concert so as to mobilise the people to act as the virus guard against this deadly virus.
Sri Lanka was lucky to get off lightly in the first wave, considering the magnitude and scale of the Covid-19 epidemic in neighbouring India, which even last Friday (9) recorded 70,000-plus cases within 24 hours. India is second only to the worst affected country, the US, and currently has nearly seven million cases and 107,000 known deaths. Therefore, it goes without saying that every precaution needs to be taken on the interaction of people between the two countries. The recent proposal of the Minister of Tourism to open up a travel bubble between the two countries for tourism will be like, in the current context, jumping from the frying pan into the fire.
The private enterprise that operates the Minuwangoda apparel manufacturing facility has come under fire, especially on social media, as being responsible for causing the second wave by bringing down a group of people from its production facility in Vishakapatnam, India via a charter flight that arrived at the Mattala Airport on 22 September. However, the criticism seems unfounded based on what the Head of the Covid-19 Task Force has been saying on the likely origins of the source. For all intents and purposes, no one up to now knows how and when Covid-19 manifested in Minuwangoda. Needless to say, it is a worrisome scenario, given Sri Lanka’s proximity to the virus hotbed next door.
Sri Lanka can ill-afford to fall victim to a similar predicament, given the limited healthcare resources and economic repercussions. It is safe to say that the vast majority of private businesses are still reeling from the impact of the first wave, and key sectors like tourism, hospitality, and retail continue to be in the doldrums. As a result, government revenue has been hit hard and making ends meet will be even more challenging in the days ahead. With the situation being what it is, the authorities have no option but to be proactive and nip this latest outbreak in the bud, if that is even possible, given the fact that the cases are already widespread.
It seems the Government is well aware of the need to keep the economy ticking, which is why it has so far desisted from imposing a blanket lockdown like it did in March, restricting such action to specific areas in the Gampaha District. The Government now has to walk a fine line in ensuring the health system does not overheat, while at the same time ensuring that people are able to safely engage in their day-to-day activities without spreading or falling victim to the virus which has also made inroads into the commercial capital with multiple cases being detected over the week.
Since the Government has outlined its strategy, the way forward is by aggressively expanding testing capacity. Rather than waiting for sick people to turn up at hospitals where spreading of the virus may already have happened, it is far more advisable for the health authorities to go to the people instead and carry out random testing at least in the high-risk areas and mitigate possible community spread by identifying and isolating virus carriers. The fact that nearly 90% of positive cases identified at the Minuwangoda facility have been asymptomatic is another challenge that has to be overcome through aggressive testing across vulnerable cities and towns. There is simply no other way than testing, testing, and more testing.
It was pointed out by the Government Medical Officers’ Association (GMOA) last week that ongoing testing is still well below capacity. According to the GMOA, the current testing capacity is around 4,000 tests per day, but only about 2,000 are being carried out at present. If Sri Lanka is to avoid being another India, testing has to be increased rapidly, covering the entire island. It is pointless to bolt the stable door after the horse has bolted, and this is the challenge the health authorities must embrace without delay.
Already many sectors have been adversely affected, even though a general lockdown has not been imposed. Schools, universities, tuition classes, bars, pubs, and nightclubs have been ordered to be shut while a ban has been imposed on any events being held. Many daily wage earners are once again without employment. While restrictions are certainly the need of the hour, these steps must be complemented with health measures in order to stop the spread of the virus. There is no point in keeping state and private sector offices open while cutting down on bus and train services, as the available services are bound to be congested. One way out is for the state sector to embrace smart technology and work remotely.
However, this is easier said than done, as it is akin to letting the fox guard the chicken coop. The million-rupee question is: How do you get the notoriously lethargic and inefficient public sector to work remotely when they don’t even work in their appointed offices? This certainly is a poser for the authorities, but one that needs to be figured out sooner than later since Covid-19 will be around for some time, at least until a vaccine is discovered.
Meanwhile, on the economic front, the Opposition has been complaining that the economic data for the second quarter has not been forthcoming even though it is well past the due date. It does not take Einstein to predict that the full impact of the first lockdown was felt in the second and third quarters of financial year 2020 and the numbers cannot be anything but dire, with the first quarter even before the Covid impact registering a 1.6% contraction. With a second wave now on the horizon, the same is expected to befall the fourth quarter, making 2020 an unprecedented disaster in economic terms.
The World Bank last week gave an indication of what was to be anticipated, forecasting a 6.7% contraction of the economy for the year. To put it into perspective, Sri Lanka’s highest growth rate of 7% was achieved in 2012 and has been on the decline ever since. Now, just eight years later, the economy has shrunk by as much.
Given the status quo, the administration has a Herculean task to get the indicators back in the black, hopefully at some point next year. The World Bank at least is confident of such a prospect as per its forecast released last week. But much needs to be done to get there and every measure taken now to mitigate the second wave of Covid-19 will certainly help the cause.