The intra-party clamour for nomination has reached fever pitch, at least within the United National Party (UNP). As a result of the cut-throat attempts to secure nomination for the coveted presidential race, the unity within the party seems to be in shambles notwithstanding the public posture that all is well within. Only time will tell how united the UNP will be. As things stand, the division of loyalties will be hugely detrimental to the electoral fortunes of the grand old party and the ultimate beneficiary of the infighting will no doubt be the main Opposition party. In the absence of a clear announcement with regard to the candidate, the party faithful have lined up behind their man, rooting for nomination. The field has now narrowed down to two, between the Leader and his Deputy. The showdown was not unexpected and was a long time coming. The Party Leader in his charismatic style waited until things came to a head to make his move, by which time much damage had been done to party unity. Sajith Premadasa's “my way or the highway” strategy has put him and his supporters in a make-or-break situation with very little room to manoeuvre within the party. Ranil Wickremesinghe has played his cards well as he is wont to do, and is marking time to checkmate the ambitious Premadasa which no doubt would be suicidal for his political ambitions. Wickremesinghe, who first ran for the presidency against Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2005 only, failed by a whisker largely due to a boycott of the northeastern Tamil votes engineered by the very same individuals who are now piloting the Premadasa campaign. Wickremesinghe lost in 2005 by a measly 180,000-odd votes and interestingly enough, it was the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) that played a prominent role by default against Wickremesinghe back then. The fact of the matter is that it was the Tamil people who through their boycott, paved the way for Mahinda Rajapaksa to win that election. Now it seems the wheel has turned full circle and this time around, it is the votes of the Tamil people that will finally decide who rules Sri Lanka. The TNA is well aware of the clout it wields in choosing the next candidate and they are unlikely to barter that power easily. Which is why the comments made by MP M.A. Sumanthiran last week were noteworthy in that he draws attention to the kingmaker role of the TNA back in 2005 by default and now in 2019, by design. The fact is that they have now gone a step further, for not only will they now decide which party to support but also play a leading role in choosing the candidate of that party as well. This is where Wickremesinghe seems to have masterfully outmanoeuvred Premadasa, who is consistently proving himself to be an amateur in the game of crafty politics. Wickremesinghe seems all but set to win the TNA's support as their candidate of choice, which despite the perceived support for Premadasa in the South, will be the ultimate decider as it was in 2005. If and when things come to a head, which is not a long way off, the macro level dynamics will have to be absorbed by the Premadasa camp and it is not going to be to their liking. To make matters worse, various opinion polls are beginning to surface that point in the same direction. Given the length to which Premadasa and his supporters have ventured, there is no turning back now and a showdown seems a very real prospect. The much-anticipated Wickremesinghe-Premadasa meeting which finally took place last week ended how it was supposed to, with both sides sticking to their guns. This matter will now have to be referred to a third umpire, which is beginning to take the form and shape of the TNA. Even during the infamous presidential coup in October last year, it was the TNA’s support that saved the day for the UNP. Had they caved in to the immense pressure brought upon them at the time by the powers that be, the political environment today would be very different. The reality of the electoral numbers game is that support of the Sinhalese Buddhist majority alone will not help a candidate to cross the 50% plus one mark that is required to win a presidential election. Wickremesinghe for his part seems to have read the stats well and unlike his Deputy, has occupied himself with the task of wooing the TNA, the Muslim Congress, and other constituent parties of the United National Front (UNF). It is no secret that Sri Lankan politics is a dirty game and our prediction is that the coming presidential election will be the dirtiest of them all for the simple reason that both the main parties are fragmented from within and the likelihood of a first-off, outright winner is an unlikely prospect, which leaves the door wide open for chaos and confusion. It seems the President is well aware of what could be and is already making pre-emptive moves to establish control should there be such an eventuality. Notwithstanding the excuse given for last week's takeover of the Rupavahini Corporation by the Defence Ministry which comes under the President, what is clear is that the battle lines are being drawn, one line at a time. For all intents and purposes, the Rupavahini takeover was not only arbitrary and bereft of ethics, but is also a dangerous precedent where the President can continue to act with impunity even on the eve of an election. What is even more dangerous in this particular instance is that all television stations are registered and governed by the Rupavahini Act. By this one action, all TV stations will now, at least by extension, come under the purview of the Defence Ministry. In the event Sirisena seeks re-election on the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) ticket or decides to support the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), this blatant move is likely to have far-reaching ramifications for the other parties in the fray. Media watchdogs have already lambasted the move which has cast yet another black mark on Sirisena, who last October took the liberty of sacking the Prime Minister and the entire Government. Although the Supreme Court ruled in favour of Wickremesinghe, President Sirisena is yet to be held accountable for it. The Rupavahini takeover has only attracted a whimper of protest from the incumbent UNP Government, which seems a repeat of the 2003 manoeuvre of President Chandrika Kumaratunga who took over the entire Media Ministry from the then Ranil Wickremesinghe Government before proceeding to call for elections. The UNP under Wickremesinghe is clearly a party that does not wish to learn from the past. Be that as it may, only time will tell whether the ultimate kingmaker will once again be the people of the North and East or their proxy in Colombo. History certainly has a way of repeating itself.