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Out with the old, in with the new

19 Jan 2020

The grapevine has it that the presidential proclamation calling for the general election will be issued on 2 March – six weeks from now. Ideally, the main political actors, namely the two most prominent parties, should by now be well primed to face the poll. However, the reality is the opposite. The two parties that have alternatively ruled this country since Independence are effectively in tatters, struggling for survival, thanks to the tectonic shift brought about by the arrival of the new kid on the block, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In a period spanning little over a year, the SLPP has been able to successfully get its nominee elected as the seventh executive president of the country and acquire a vote base of 6.9 million people. As a result, the United National Party (UNP) and Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) have been in free fall, with nothing and no one to stop their collective slide to oblivion. What is ironic is that the duo that ruled over the land as President and Prime Minister just a couple of months ago are the main architects of this free fall. SLFP Leader former President Maithripala Sirisena seems determined to wreak the same havoc he caused in the country during his tenure as President, now within the party he heads. Last week's unceremonious sacking of Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga as the party's organiser for the Bandaranaike bastion of Attanagalla is probably the last nail in the coffin of the old SLFP of S.W.R.D. and Sirimavo Bandaranaike. The move puts an abrupt end to the Bandaranaike legacy that founded and moulded the SLFP to be what it was at the best of times. What would be hard for Kumaratunga to stomach is the fact that her sacking was under the watch of the man who she, more than anyone else in the SLFP at the time, helped to elect as president and then by default become the Leader of the SLFP. It is no secret that Chandrika Kumaratunga was the prime mover in nominating Sirisena as the common candidate in the 2015 presidential election and thereafter went all out to get him elected. It seems the wheel has now turned full circle and Sirisena has returned the favour by sacking Kumaratunga as a party organiser. That surely must hurt and it is unlikely that Kumaratunga will take the hit lying down. With infighting being the order of the day, the SLFP's fate is now effectively in the hands of its offspring, the SLPP which in effect is the domain of the Rajapaksa family. If ever there was a perfect plan to legally transfer the vote base of one party to another on a permanent basis, then this is it. What seemed like an ambitious operation at first has turned out to be an unprecedented success with the timid capitulation of the former. What is equally distressing is the fact that what Sirisena seems to be doing to the SLFP, Ranil Wickremesinghe seems to be doing to the UNP, much to the chagrin and frustration of die-hard party supporters. Sirisena and Wickremesinghe, who never really saw eye to eye while in office, seem to be operating on cue to outdo each other in the destruction game. Wickremesinghe's obstinate stance of clinging on to the UNP leadership even after proving beyond all doubt his inability to get his act together after nearly five years in office, is taking the UNP on the same path as the SLFP, by destroying the party from within. His detractors who now seem to have a majority among the parliamentary group have threatened to go their own way by forming a new alliance to face the upcoming general election. If that were to happen, then Wickremesinghe's fate is all but sealed. His journey to political oblivion is now only a few stubborn steps away and history may not be too kind to him in the event of forced retirement. One is at a loss to understand Wickremesinghe's reluctance to hand over the reins to someone else given his mediocre track record as Party Leader over the last two-and-a-half decades with the party's vote base continuing to erode under his watch. As much as the SLFP's fate now lies in the hands of the SLPP, the UNP's fate will lie in the new alliance of UNP-affiliated parties now in the making. Just as much as the SLFP's vote base shifted wholesale to the SLPP, there is every likelihood that the traditional UNP vote base may also shift to the yet unnamed alliance that will be led by presidential candidate Sajith Premadasa. This transition is likely to take place if nothing else due to the sheer frustration of party supporters fed up with the ridiculous infighting, first during government and now in opposition. Given the political dynamics at play, one can assume two new parties to be in the fray come March – one of those of course being the SLPP. With nationalistic fervour now a global phenomenon, it is unlikely that Sri Lanka will be spared. The SLPP, having identified this trend, was quick to capitalise on it and is now reaping the dividends. In all probability, the new alliance of UNP-affiliated parties will also capitalise on this phenomenon and project a hawkish nationalistic outlook which the old UNP is ill-equipped to do. In the end, it could well be a blessing in disguise for the grand old party. What this means is that the two parties that have dominated local politics for the past 70 years seem destined to head backstage while the limelight will shine on the newcomers. There is no preventing the senior parties from becoming “also rans”. No doubt it will open a new chapter in local politics thanks largely to the obstinacy and greed of two individuals whose claim to fame has been consistent deceit and discord. There is nothing wrong with the old giving way to the new as long as the ultimate outcome is better than what was. After all, as the famous saying goes, there is nothing permanent in politics, only interests!


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