Black Box by Capt. Vasabha

• Sajith to meet UNP LG and PC members today
• UNF coalition partners threaten to move out
• UNP’s new Working Committee appointment tomorrow
• SLFP-SLPP alliance on hold pending Basil’s return

The discussions between United National Party (UNP) Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, Speaker Karu Jayasuriya, and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa to resolve the ongoing leadership crisis in the party have ended inconclusively. Neither Wickremesinghe nor Premadasa seem ready to come to a middle ground on the UNP leadership issue. A majority of the UNP is also looking at ways to form an alliance with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The fact was revealed in public by UNP MP Ajith P. Perera, who stated that the best way forward for the country was a coalition government between President Rajapaksa and Premadasa in the post of Prime Minister. The campaign at the next general election therefore would likely take the look of “President Gotabaya and Prime Minister Sajith”. The President has managed to stay away from the unwanted limelight in the form of the #Ranjangate phone call recordings and now wants the Premadasa group to form a government with him. President Rajapaksa is however continuing with his networking programme where he personally meets and greets people as he hosted a dinner on Friday (24) night at the President’s House in Fort for members of the country’s business community. However, the statements by members of the Premadasa group seem premature given that the UNP’s internal crisis is yet to be resolved. Several rounds of discussions took place last weekend on the UNP’s leadership issue. The first was between Premadasa and Jayasuriya last Saturday (18). The discussion had ended on a positive note with both Premadasa and Jayasuriya agreeing to work together to bring victory to the party, but had not reached a final decision on the leadership issue. The following day, Sunday (19), saw Jayasuriya and Wickremesinghe having a discussion, but once again, the meeting ended without reaching a decision. However, Wickremesinghe has sent a clear message to all party members that he had no intention of resigning from the party leadership. The options that are currently open for discussion are 1) Jayasuriya to be named alliance leader and Premadasa to be made party leader, 2) Jayasuriya to be named party leader and Premadasa to be made alliance leader, 3) Wickremesinghe to remain in party leadership while Jayasuriya is named alliance leader and Premadasa named prime ministerial candidate. Interestingly, Wickremesinghe is keen on naming Premadasa as the party’s prime ministerial candidate at the general election in a similar manner in which Premadasa was nominated as the party’s candidate at the last presidential election. One of Wickremesinghe’s main concerns is Premadasa’s failure to have an open discussion with him on the party leadership issue. “Sajith does not want to come for a one-on-one discussion on these issues. He comes with a group to force me out. He always claims it is the request of the group. This is an issue that could be resolved through discussion. It cannot be resolved by dividing the party,” Wickremesinghe had said last week to former UNP General Secretary Tissa Attanayake when the latter had visited him at his residence on 5th Lane, Colombo 3. Attanayake had also proposed that a meeting be held immediately between Wickremesinghe, Jayasuriya, and Premadasa to reach a consensus on the party leadership issue. Until all parties decide to reach a common ground in resolving the party leadership issue, the UNP’s internal crisis is likely to continue. Therefore, Premadasa so far has had to be satisfied with the post of Opposition Leader and leader of the UNP-led alliance at the upcoming general election, a post which has not yet been officially bestowed on him. Whether the UNP-led electoral alliance would be the United National Front (UNF) is yet to be finalised, but it seems like the Premadasa faction has managed to ensure that leadership of the alliance was vested with Premadasa, at least for the time being. It is in this backdrop that several rounds of discussions were held between backbench MPs of the UNP and senior parliamentarians in the Premadasa faction. Several members of the Premadasa faction like MPs Ranjith Madduma Bandara and Thalatha Atukorale argued that those supportive of a leadership change should move out of the party and contest separately at the general election if Wickremesinghe was not prepared to resign from the party leadership. A backbench MP had then objected to the proposal, saying: “Although the party might split, the chances of party supporters splitting are highly unlikely. Therefore, we should not look at moving out of the party; we have to a look at a way to stay within the party as a united force and face the election.” Afterwards, the backbench MPs had proposed that Jayasuriya be appointed as the leader of the proposed alliance while Premadasa would contest as the prime ministerial candidate. They have pointed out that Wickremesinghe remaining as the UNP Leader would not have a great bearing on the general election. However, members of the Premadasa faction had not responded well to the proposal while members of the Wickremesinghe faction had agreed to the proposal, claiming it was a solution that would bring all parties concerned to a middle ground. RW’s shot to Sajith Amidst all these discussions and arguments, last Thursday (23) saw Wickremesinghe firing a salvo at Premadasa. Wickremesinghe had said that Premadasa would be re-appointed as the UNP’s Deputy Leader, the post held by Premadasa until his defeat at the last presidential election. It is, however, interesting to note that the announcement of Premadasa’s re-appointment as the party’s deputy leader was prominently announced in the state-owned English newspaper. The report in the Daily News stated: “Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa has once again been given the deputy leader’s post in the United National Party (UNP) by Party Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. Wickremesinghe’s decision comes at a time when a sizable group in the UNP parliamentary group is calling for the party leadership to appoint Premadasa as the UNP Leader.” The report further stated: “After his defeat at the last presidential election, Premadasa stepped down as the UNP Deputy Leader noting he was respecting the mandate given by the people. UNP sources said the Party Leader has taken measures to appoint members to all key positions in the party. The party will also complete appointing members to the Working Committee (WC) by next Monday.” Premadasa’s re-appointment as Party Deputy Leader is a clear indication of Wickremesinghe cracking the whip and showing Premadasa and co. as to who is calling the shots. Wickremesinghe has also asked Premadasa to submit a detailed list of the party's campaign expenditure at the last presidential election. Organisers get tough Meanwhile last week, Premadasa convened a meeting of the UNP electoral organisers in his capacity as Opposition Leader. The meeting was held at a committee room in the parliamentary complex and MPs Kabir Hashim, Ajith P. Perera, Sujeewa Senasinghe, Sarath Fonseka, Ranjith Madduma Bandara, and Lakshman Kiriella had also attended the meeting. Around 75 party organisers had attended the meeting. At the outset of the meeting, Premadasa had highlighted the need for the UNP to win at the upcoming general election. After him, several other senior party members had expressed their views. However, the most interesting statement was made by former Minister and former Speaker Joseph Michael Perera. Making a lengthy statement, Perera had detailed the issues faced by the UNP organisers during the past few years under a government led by the party. He had charged that the party had failed to look into the welfare of the party organisers and had completely sidelined them without even allocating an appointment for a meeting. “The party organisers were completely ignored. Regardless of whatever positions are shared between a few members, it is the party organisers who take the party forward and also keep the UNP supporters with the party,” he had charged. He had added that the UNP ministers, deputy ministers in the former Government, and party leaders were responsible for the UNP’s defeat at the last presidential election. “The ministers shared all the perks and even the job vacancies were filled by them. There was no chance given to the electoral organisers. We were unable to step out of our houses. How can we ask people to cast a vote given what has happened? There was talk about working according to a plan before assuming office. But after assuming office, everything changed.” Perera had continued with his statement for about half an hour amidst the occasional cheer and support from fellow organisers. Meanwhile, a Muslim electoral organiser had noted that the UNP, without paving the way for the growth of Muslim political figures from within the party, had instead opted to empower Muslim politicians from other parties. “This has prevented the UNP from creating any new Muslim political figures,” the organiser had said. Another organiser named Anuradha had said that his party membership was suspended for the last two years without even conducting an investigation. He had noted that he had arrived at the meeting since he was asked to come for it. Several other party organisers had also lambasted the UNP’s conduct after it ascended to power in 2015. After listening to the statements made by the party organisers, Premadasa had acknowledged that there were shortcomings during the past few years and emphasised the need to have a united force to face the upcoming general election. UNF split While the UNP continues to dilly dally with its internal crisis, the UNF is on the verge of splitting up. If the UNP does not get its act together within the next few days, the UNF will see a split at the upcoming general election with minority alliance members likely to contest under their own symbols due to the ongoing leadership battle between UNP Leader Wickremesinghe and Opposition Leader Premadasa. Already, the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA), which is a coalition partner of the UNF, has said that it would hold a meeting tomorrow (27) to discuss contesting under its own symbol. TPA Leader MP Mano Ganesan said: “The politburo of the TPA will meet on Monday (27) in Nuwara Eliya to discuss contesting under our own symbol outside the UNF in all 22 electoral districts in coalition with like-minded progressive and patriotic parties.” Ganesan had last week told the media that the main reason for the TPA to consider the alternative of contesting outside the UNF was the infighting in the UNP, which is the main coalition partner of the UNF. The TPA Leader had also alleged that some sections in the UNP were behaving as if they were carrying out the bidding of the Government. According to Ganesan, a strong UNP is a necessity to strengthen the UNF alliance and the failure of the main constituent partner to resolve its internal crisis had become a great problem to the coalition partners. He had further noted that while coalition partners of the UNF are unable to interfere in the UNP's internal crisis, there was a dire need for reforms to be carried out in the UNP with Premadasa and Speaker Jayasuriya being allocated lead roles in the party. The TPA consists of the Democratic People’s Front, National Union of Workers, and the Up-Country People’s Front. As for the other coalition partners of the UNF, like the All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) led by Rishad Bathiudeen, Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) led by Rauff Hakeem, and Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) led by Champika Ranawaka, they had also expressed their dissatisfaction at the prolonged internal crisis of the UNP and the delay in resolving the issue. Recently, on 17 January, UNF alliance partners, SLMC, JHU, and even the TPA stated after a meeting of UNF party leaders that they would form an alliance led by Premadasa to contest at the upcoming election in the event Party Leader Wickremesinghe refused to step down from the leadership. The meeting was held at the Opposition Leader’s office at the parliamentary complex. Be that as it may, Wickremesinghe seems unlikely to step down from the leadership to make way for another leader and although he might consider Jayasuriya for a senior party post as a unifying factor, is hell-bent on not making way for Premadasa. It is evident that the strong push by the Premadasa faction for Wickremesinghe to step down from the UNP leadership has made the latter more stubborn and determined than ever to hang on to the post. Meanwhile, SLMC Leader Hakeem had reportedly said that the SLMC had informed Premadasa that the party would contest under an alliance with the UNP only if Premadasa led this alliance. Meanwhile, the ACMC led by Bathiudeen is yet to make a final decision on the Premadasa-led alliance as the party is still weighing the pros and cons of contesting as an alliance at the general election. New Working Committee It is in this backdrop that Wickremesinghe had announced the reconstitution of the party WC that has been defunct since 31 December 2019. The term of the WC ended on 31 December and the constitution of a new committee had been delayed due to the ongoing internal conflict in the UNP. The UNP WC consists of 96 members out of which the party leader appoints 20 members. However, the last WC consisted only of 69 members. The five office bearers – chairman, deputy leader, general secretary, assistant leader, and national organiser – are included in the WC. Apart from the 20 members appointed by the party leader, the remaining 71 members are appointed by the five office bearers. Therefore, the office bearers are to meet with the Party Leader to decide on the members to the UNP WC. Wickremesinghe had said that the new WC would be constituted tomorrow (27) and a meeting of the committee would also be held tomorrow. Interestingly, the appointment of a new WC has paved the way for another battle between the Wickremesinghe and Premadasa factions. Each group is trying to wrest power within the WC. But, given previous experiences, Wickremesinghe is likely to manoeuvre matters in a manner that he ends up with a controlling stake of the party’s WC. Alliance plans continue However, the Premadasa faction said that the formation of the proposed alliance under Premadasa’s leadership would continue as planned. Although members of the Premadasa group are looking at the option of continuing with the Democratic National Alliance (DNA) that was formed in the run-up to the presidential election last November, a final decision has not yet been reached on the matter. Given last week’s statement by TPA’s Ganesan of the possibility of contesting separately under its own symbol as a mark of protest against the UNP’s failure to resolve its issues, the Premadasa group has its work cut out for it since the coalition members will have to be convinced to continue with its alliance with the UNP and agree to contest under Premadasa’s leadership. As a first step in taking forward the proposed electoral alliance, the Premadasa group had organised a meeting under Premadasa’s patronage today (26) with UNP local government and provincial council members at the Sri Lanka Exhibition and Convention Centre (SLECC) in Colombo to discuss plans of the alliance and the way forward. It is learnt that an open invitation had also been extended to members of the UNF coalition parties to attend the meeting. Governing pains Apart from the UNP, the governing party is also straddled with its own problems – mainly the delay in finalising the proposed alliance under which the political parties of the Government were expected to contest at the next general election. The formation of the alliance between the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), and other political parties has been delayed until the return of SLPP National Organiser Basil Rajapaksa, who is currently in the US on a private visit. Basil left for the US last month and is expected to return to the country by the end of this month. The SLFP and SLPP reached an agreement in the run-up to the presidential election last November to form an alliance – Sri Lanka Freedom People’s Alliance – to contest the next general election. The proposed alliance was to include the other political parties currently affiliated with the SLPP. However, the final formation of the alliance has been put on hold till Basil’s return. The initial agreement between the SLFP and SLPP was to contest the upcoming general election as an alliance under the “chair” symbol, which was the symbol of the People’s Alliance (PA). Nevertheless, problems in forming the alliance started to surface with some senior members of the SLPP claiming that the symbol of the proposed alliance between the SLFP and SLPP should be the “flower bud”. The flower bud is the symbol of the SLPP. The SLFP had objected to the proposal by the SLPP saying it was a violation of the agreement reached between the two parties last year. While the issue was taken up for discussion at the last SLFP Central Committee and politburo meetings a few weeks back along with other violations of the agreements signed between the two parties last November, several rounds of discussions have also been held between SLFP Leader Maithripala Sirisena, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and SLPP Leader and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa about the matter. However, a final decision on the alliance and its symbol is expected to be taken following Basil’s return. The current Parliament will complete four-and-a-half years on 1 March and according to the powers vested with the President under the 19th Amendment to the Constitution, Parliament could be dissolved by the President a day after 1 March.Therefore, the next general election is likely to take place between mid to end April this year.