By Uwin Lugoda The Covid-19 pandemic, and its domino effect on markets across every industry, is continuing to constantly change annual economic traditions. This is especially the case when it comes to the Christmas season, one of the most lucrative holidays for retailers all over the world. December is annually earmarked by both consumers and retailers, for the higher frequency in the buying and selling of nonessential goods during that period. This year, however, with the impact of the current pandemic, the sales targets of many retailers for the season are unpredictable. Even the international markets, which celebrate the holiday the most, have all seen varying levels of success when it comes to pre-Christmas sales. Countries like Australia have actually forecasted a positive retail climate ahead, as the country is showing greater control of the pandemic, with zero cases in major cities like Melbourne as of 3 December. An annual Christmas retail sales forecast conducted by the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) indicated a forecast of retail spending this Christmas season to be over $ 54.3 billion, an increase of 2.8% from the $ 52.9 billion in retail expenditure during the 2019 Christmas trading period. This was something the ARA initially thought impossible due to the virus causing multiple lockdowns for varying periods in different states, and several cities having second waves, as well as the country closing its borders on 20 March. However, other international markets have not fared so well, as countries like France and the UK, currently facing their respective second waves, reported the closure of several retail stores and big franchise outlets in several cities. As of 28 November, French media reported that while most retail outlets are open for seasonal sales, with discount campaigns, consumers are not showing a lot of interest in nonessentials. Similar to the countries above, Sri Lanka too is currently experiencing its second wave, which has created an unpredictable season for local retailers. The country’s retail sector accounts for nearly one-third of Sri Lanka’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product), with sales value exceeding $ 30 billion, which can be directly attributed to retail. The sector also plays a vital role in the country’s employment, with nearly 14% of the employment population engaged in some form of retail activity, according to Sri Lanka’s labour force statistics. This makes December a crucial period for local retailers, as whilst Christians celebrate the holiday, almost all other religious groups enjoy the Christmas festivities. This period also attracts large groups of tourists and expats to the country, leading retailers to higher profits. In 2018, Sri Lanka Retailers’ Association (SLRA) Founder/Chairman Hussain Sadique stated that the seasonal sales for the sector were better than expected. During that period, he told The Sunday Morning Business that despite a near-16% depreciation in the value of the rupee in 2018 and the political turmoil of October that year, the sector’s December sales were satisfactory and displayed similar sales performance to that of the year prior. The SLRA currently represents nine retail sectors, namely FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods); clothing, fashion and jewellery; shelter and housing; household and consumer durables; footwear and accessories; e-commerce; mobility; entertainment and restaurants; and healthcare and wellness, and comprises 30-plus leading local retailers. “This December’s figures are similar to last year’s figures. Some days, the sales are more than last year. Overall, we have done well, and it is around last year’s figures,” said Sadique, back in 2018. However, the current disruption of the market, by the restriction of movement for locals and the inability of international tourists to enter Sri Lanka, has left many questioning the fate of the sector this season.  

What to expect

Speaking to The Sunday Morning Business more recently, Sadique stated that despite the outcome, local retailers have prepared themselves for the season the same way they did last year. He explained that consumption among consumers has dropped due to movement restrictions and functional restrictions, due to which they expect less sales this December compared to last year. “We are prepared just like we were last year, but we are not over-prepared. So we are ready to face the situation and make last year’s sales, or at least come close to that number.” He explained that all SLRA members have stocked up for the season, and if the products do not sell by the end of the year, they will purchase less in January 2021. He went on to state that they might not have to resort to this, since there are a few more days till the holiday begins, leaving some room for things to get better. According to Sadique, despite low sales numbers, the local industry has grown accustomed to using e-commerce platforms to make sales in the last few months since the initial outbreak. He stated this is a plus point in their eyes, as the sector has seen the purchase of goods via online platforms rising by 25% over 2019. “These e-commerce platforms are giving companies here an opportunity to do their best to capture the seasonal market. The last few months of surviving Covid has given our members e-commerce experience, and this will hopefully mitigate the impact on seasonal sales.” Sadique has carried this belief since the start of November, when he told us that local retailers were optimistic about the road ahead, as the current outbreak will have less of a negative impact, unlike the previous outbreak that caused a seven-week lockdown. In his opinion, the Government is better equipped to handle the new outbreak, and retailers started recovering after the two-week curfew imposed on the Western Province. Sharing Sadique’s sentiments, Hameedia Group Managing Director Fouzul Hameed stated that his group was prepared for the Christmas season. While stating he understood that people are currently not going out and buying clothes, he added that the group has still carried out heavy advertising for the month of December to help bring in sales. In the months leading up to December, the group reported a sales drop of almost 50%. Despite this, he noted, their e-commerce platform has grown, with an increasing number of sales being attributed to it. This has prompted the group to relaunch its website this coming week with Christmas-oriented features, while another relaunch is set to take place in January 2021 with even more features. “We have no chance of matching the sales numbers from 2019, but we are hopeful that consumers will still buy our products since it is the Christmas season.”