With less than a month to go before the 2019 presidential election, campaigning by the main contenders is at full swing albeit rife with chaos and disconnections. It is undoubtedly chaotic in the campaigns of the two main frontrunners – United National Party (UNP)-led New Democratic Front (NDF) presidential candidate Sajith Premadasa and Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)-backed Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Given the contradictory statements being made by members of both camps regarding their respective campaigns, it is evident that both Premadasa and Rajapaksa have several ongoing campaigns with the lack of co-ordination within. The NDF campaign for starters seems disjointed on many fronts. Although the initial plan was to have two campaigns – one operated by the UNP and another by the candidate – so far, both seem to have failed to create an impact. A similar situation has affected the Rajapaksa campaign with SLPP theoretician and National Organiser Basil Rajapaksa steering the main campaign and the Viyathmaga organisation carrying out a separate campaign. However, looking at past presidential election campaigns, it takes around two weeks for the campaign mechanism to fall into place. The downside is the time constraint involved with the campaign work with a few more weeks to go for the election. Interestingly, as of now, neither Premadasa nor Rajapaksa seem to have mustered 50% of the voter base and both campaigns are still in the process of getting more political parties and organisations to back their respective campaigns. Rajapaksa has so far managed to solidify his campaign with the signing of memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with the SLFP and the Ceylon Workers’ Congress (CWC). Although the Rajapaksa campaign expected a great boost with the official announcement of the SLFP extending its support to the SLPP candidate, it was dampened by a group of hardcore SLFPers refusing to put their weight behind the SLPP at the election. Be that as it may, Premadasa has not been able to streamline the support of the dissident SLFPers and so far seems disjointed like most of the NDF campaign. Rishad-Kabir clash Last week saw several United National Front (UNF) party leaders convening several party leaders meetings to iron out the issues faced by the Premadasa campaign. The first party leaders meeting, convened at Temple Trees last Monday (14) morning, turned out to be quite explosive due to a clash between Minister Rishad Bathiudeen and Minister Kabir Hashim. The argument that ended in near fisticuffs had to be controlled with the intervention of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. The meeting commenced with Wickremesinghe inquiring about the progress made thus far in the election campaign. While the leaders started to gradually explain the issues faced by the campaigns and the funding restraints too, Bathiudeen had turned to Hashim with a question about organisers in the Vavuniya District. Bathiudeen had accused Hashim of preventing his party members from being appointed as organisers for the NDF campaign in the Vavuniya District. Hashim had responded saying that Bathiudeen’s members have already been appointed as organisers and that he needed to understand the UNP also had appointed its own organisers. However, Hashim had noted that it was the Party Secretary who was responsible for appointing the organisers and not him (the UNP Chairman). All hell had broken lose at this point with Bathiudeen shouting at Hashim, saying he was trying to sideline him and his party members. Hashim had denied the allegations but Bathiudeen had continued saying that Hashim and several others were trying to sideline him in the campaign. Hashim had then shouted back and when the argument reached a level of almost extending blows, the Prime Minister had intervened and stopped the fracas. It was later learnt that Bathiudeen had been disgruntled that the UNP was trying to sideline him in the NDF campaign due to the belief that he would have a negative impact on the Sinhala-Buddhist vote base. Delving deeper into the matter, The Black Box learnt that Bathiudeen was in fact informed that he would not be giving a speech at Premadasa’s 10 October inaugural election rally that was held at Galle Face. Bathiudeen had then said that the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) Leader Minister Rauff Hakeem should also not be giving a speech if he was not giving one. The organisers had agreed. Then, hearing that both Bathiudeen and Hakeem were not being assigned speeches at the rally, Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA) Leader Minister Mano Ganesan had also refused to speak at the rally. This was the reason none of the minority party leaders were seen addressing Premadasa’s 10 October rally. RW takes control Given the ad hoc manner in which the UNF was carrying out the NDF presidential candidate’s campaign, Wickremesinghe, who remained silent since the announcement of the UNP’s presidential candidate, decided to take control of the situation. Wickremesinghe’s first move was to look at the reasons for the failure in the discussion with the SLFP in securing the party’s support for the NDF candidate. The clash between Bathiudeen and Hashim at the Monday meeting also rang warning bells to Wickremesinghe, who through experience, understood that all was not well in Premadasa’s campaign. Losing his cool, Wickremesinghe had also told the party leaders meeting that the Premadasa campaign had kept him out of all discussions and negotiations intentionally and he decided to stand aside and allow the campaign to proceed. However, the Premier had said that the campaign seemed to be falling apart without any proper co-ordination and all the infighting. Wickremesinghe had then ordered a party leaders meeting to be called the following day, Tuesday (15), at Temple Trees. He had demanded that all committees related to the campaign attend the meeting with their operational plans and progress reports. Accordingly, Tuesday’s party leaders meeting saw a semblance of order and unity. Wickremesinghe, after looking at all the plans, had said that the UNP headquarters, Sirikotha, needed to be reactivated as the party’s campaign hub. Teams were also appointed to negotiate with political parties and organisations to get their support for Premadasa’s campaign. JVP in demand However, JVP Propaganda Secretary MP Vijitha Herath told the media last week that Party Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who is contesting as the presidential candidate of the National People’s Power (NPP), will not withdraw his candidacy under any circumstance. Herath made this statement in response to a question posed by the media on whether Dissanayake and the JVP would consider the option of withdrawing his candidacy if the UNF made such a request in order to ensure Premadasa’s victory at the upcoming presidential election. The JVP in fact had gone a step further, saying the party would not under any circumstance adhere to the requests being made for the NPP supporters to cast a second preferential vote in favour of the NDF candidate. According to Herath, the JVP could not view any difference between SLPP candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa and UNP candidate Sajith Premadasa. “If anyone expected Anura to withdraw to ensure Gotabaya’s defeat, all we can say is for them to withdraw from the election as it would ensure Gotabaya’s defeat,” Herath said. It is in this backdrop that the JVP also revealed that SLPP National Organiser Basil Rajapaksa had sought the JVP’s support to get the party’s second preferential vote cast in favour of the SLPP presidential candidate. JVP politburo member MP Bimal Rathnayake said that Basil had approached the JVP leadership and requested the party to push for the second preference to be cast in favour of the SLPP candidate, since it was difficult to secure 50% of the votes at the election. “Basil said that they can get a maximum of 44% and asked whether the JVP could get them the second preferential vote,” Ratnayake said at a public gathering, adding that the JVP leaders have responded by saying that they were unable to do so, since the party members do not have a tradition of casting preferential votes, but only vote for the party. However, Ratnayake said that if party members wish to cast a second preference for a candidate, the party did not have objections, as it was the democratic right of the voters. “They (Basil) know(s) that it is difficult to get 50% of the votes,” he added. With the JVP adopting a “leave us out of your mess” attitude, the UNF and SLPP are now engaged in lobbying the civil society members engaged with the NPP to push for the second preferential vote. Early jumpers in a mess Amidst all this chaos, a group of SLFP MPs were also facing a dilemma, given the current political scenario and the forming of an alliance between the SLFP and SLPP. SLFP parliamentarians who had extended their support to the SLPP before the SLFP Central Committee (CC) officially decided to support the SLPP’s presidential candidate, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, face the risk of being sidelined when forming a government in the event Gotabaya wins the 16 November presidential election. The agreement between the SLFP and SLPP ensures that the SLFP receives a 30% quota of every benefit. Hence, the SLFP will receive 30% of the ministerial slots in a Gotabaya Rajapaksa government. The decision on the 30% of the SLFP MPs who will receive ministerial portfolios is to be decided by the SLFP leadership, and the SLFP MPs who have extended support to the SLPP prior to the SLFP’s official decision will not be considered when allocating those ministerial posts. SLFP General Secretary MP Dayasiri Jayasekara and SLFP National Organiser MP Duminda Dissanayake had explained to SLPP National Organiser Basil Rajapaksa that if the early pole vaulters demand portfolios, it should be addressed by the SLPP and not the SLFP, since the party will not take responsibility for them. They have also informed Basil that if portfolios are offered to them, they will have to be included in the SLPP quota and not that of the SLFP. The agreement between the SLFP and SLPP was signed after Basil had agreed to this condition. Accordingly, in the event Gotabaya wins the election and turns towards forming a government, SLFP MPs like S.B. Dissanayake, Dilan Perera, Sarath Amunugama, and Chandima Weerakkody will not be assigned portfolios from the SLFP quota. Hearing this agreement, several SLFP MPs, it is learnt, had telephoned President Sirisena and other senior SLFPers making their case to be included in the SLFP group, requesting not to treat them unfairly when forming a government. Separate campaign Despite the protests marked with hooting at SLFP MPs by SLPP loyalists, the SLPP leadership had explicitly maintained that the SLPP candidate would require the SLFP’s support to ensure victory at the presidential polls. The SLPP secured 44% of the votes at the 2018 local government elections and it would not be sufficient for the party to win the presidential election. The 14% of the votes polled in 2018 by the SLFP is essential for the SLPP come 16 November. The SLFP’s importance was further consolidated at the recent Elpitiya local government election that saw the SLFP securing 12% of the votes. Therefore, the SLPP decided to get activated against the SLPPers who continued to hoot at SLFP MPs, which commenced with Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s inaugural election rally held in Anuradhapura on the 9th of this month. The SLPPers have so far hooted at MPs Duminda Dissanayake, Tharanath Basnayake, T.B. Ekanayake, and John Seneviratne at different rallies. The SLFP parliamentary group had decided not to attend rallies organised by the SLPP under the “pohottuwa” symbol. The SLFP MPs meanwhile have discussed the need to carry out a separate campaign under the SLFP banner in support of Rajapaksa’s candidature. However, the SLFPers had also decided to attend the key SLPP rallies attended by Rajapaksa in the districts on his assurance that the SLPP loyalists would not jeer at the SLFP leaders on stage. SLFP National Organiser MP Dissanayake had told the media that the SLFP would only participate in some of the rallies organised by the SLPP and that the SLFP would carry out a separate campaign. He had explained that it was vital to address the SLFP and SLPP party members separately. Dissanayake had made these comments in response to a question posed to him on the crowds that hooted at him at Rajapaksa’s rally in Anuradhapura. He had said that a few supporters under the influence of alcohol had jeered at him. According to Dissanayake, some party members were unaware of the importance of these two parties joining forces and that SLPP leaders could also face a similar situation in front of SLFP party members. Acting Leader of the SLFP Rohana Lakshman Piyadasa last week said that hooting is a national custom in Sri Lanka. Referring to the hooting at SLFP MPs by SLPP supporters at SLPP election rallies, Piyadasa had told the media that Sri Lankans hooted as a method of communication from ancient times. “We hoot at someone to insult or ridicule him. We hoot in joy at musical shows and we hoot at singers and musicians to encourage them. Therefore, we must take hooting in its stride,” he had said. Piyadasa had further stated however, it was not decent to hoot at politicians at political rallies. “It’s simply abusive and will not augur well for the unity of the SLFP and the SLPP,” he had added. Meanwhile, Jayasekara had said hooting at SLFP politicians by certain sections of the crowd at SLPP rallies would have an impact on the SLFP-SLPP alliance. Jayasekara had cast doubts on whether any of the SLPP politicians of the area could prevail upon their supporters and stop them from jeering at SLFP politicians when they address SLPP election propaganda rallies. “Drunkards, hooligans, and rowdies are hooting at SLFP politicians and it will not mean well for SLFP-SLPP unity,” he has said. The MP said he would not believe that the SLPP leadership like Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa, the party’s presidential candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa, or SLPP National Organiser Basil Rajapaksa would endorse this ill-treatment by uneducated and irresponsible hooligans and they might not even be SLFP or SLPP supporters. Jayasekara had told the media that Mahinda Rajapaksa and Basil had promised to identify the miscreants and take action at a party level. Accordingly, the SLFP-SLPP strategic committee had met last week to discuss how to overcome the issue of continuous protests by SLPP members towards the SLFPers. SLPP candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa has pointed out that while about four or five individuals were involved in misbehaving in such a manner at the rallies, the same faces had jeered at the Anuradhapura as well as the Eheliyagoda rallies. He had noted that it seemed to be an action of some force working against the SLFP-SLPP alliance. It was also noted at the meeting that some of the SLPP organisers were displeased with the alliance as they believed their posts in the party would be affected by the SLFP’s decision to join forces with the SLPP. It was finally decided that the SLFP would hold separate rallies in support of Rajapaksa to prevent any further incidents where SLPP supporters would jeer SLFPers. SLFP-SLPP alliance On a positive note, the proposed alliance between the SLFP and SLPP – the Sri Lanka Nidahas Podujana Sandanaya – is to be formed on the 31st of this month. The event to launch the alliance is to be held at the Sri Lanka Foundation Institute at 10 a.m. President Sirisena and SLPP Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa will be co-leaders of the proposed alliance. The proposed alliance will contest under the “chair” symbol at the next general election. The alliance will consist of 15 political parties out of which nine political parties are already represented in Parliament. Apart from the SLFP and SLPP, the alliance will consist of the Mahajana Eksatha Peramuna, National Freedom Front, Pivithuru Hela Urumaya, Lanka Sama Samaja Party, Sri Lanka Communist Party, Democratic Left Front, CWC, Eelam People’s Democratic Party, and several others. MR to the fore Meanwhile, SLPP Founder and National Organiser Basil Rajapaksa said Party Leader and incumbent Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa will be the head of the government regardless of who became the next president. Basil had made this statement in an interview with The Hindu newspaper. “No matter who our candidate or President is, our Leader (Mahinda Rajapaksa) will be the head of the government [as PM]. So, this arrangement suits us well. He is our Leader, and he is the spiritual leader of our country,” Basil has said. Asked how the numbers looked, Basil has said: “We are addressing human beings, it is important to connect with people on the ground. Numbers are only for targets.” Sri Lanka has some 15.99 million registered voters. If about 80% poll like last time, it would translate to approximately 12 million valid votes, in his reading. “Our target is 6.5 million votes,” he has said, confident of getting past the 50 % mark that is necessary to win. He knows that is not easy. “40 % was enough for a local poll but won’t do for a national election.” That is why the SLFP’s support – recently declared – is crucial, in his view; as are the votes of minority communities. Sections remain averse to the SLPP candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa, a former Defence Secretary linked to several war-time killings, enforced disappearances and later, to groups behind anti-Muslim violence. But their vote is “very important”, Basil had admitted. Tamils “cannot forget what happened” but people of both communities “should forgive each other.” However, Basil seemed wary of committing to a constitutional settlement to the national question. The Sri Lankan Parliament, including MPs aligned to Mahinda Rajapaksa, unanimously voted for a new Constitution in 2015, but he deemed a referendum necessary. “Let people decide if we need a new Constitution,” he had said, adding that the party was “committed to maximum devolution” – a failed promise familiar to the Tamil electorate. Basil had also said that no international actor would try to interfere in Sri Lanka’s approaching presidential election. “Ethically, that is how it should be,” he has said in the interview, alluding to a shift in the international community’s “role” in Sri Lanka’s national politics. After being unseated from office in 2015, his other brother Mahinda Rajapaksa accused India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), among others, of backing regime change, because of his perceived “China-tilt”. Taking a different line, Basil had said: “Personally, I have no evidence that India or any other country supported them (the opposition coalition).” But now “we have very well understood” what went wrong, he had said, adding: “If they had worked to change our government earlier, we have corrected the situation (now).” “India is our number one friend and neighbour so we have to always go with India, in political and security matters, but in economic and other matters you can’t forget China,” he had said. Basil faces charges of large-scale corruption. After he was briefly arrested in 2015 and later released on bail, he wasted no time in beginning the ground work for their fight back after the 2015 defeat. He had not only set up the SLPP in 2016 as their new vehicle, but also crafted a sharp campaign ahead of the 2018 local authority elections. The SLPP won over 40 % of the vote, pushing the ruling UNP to second spot, and the SLFP to third place. Their big win signalled the electoral resurgence of the Rajapaksa camp, even as it heralded the fall of the SLFP, where the Rajapaksas built their political careers. The SLPP headquarters located near the Parliament was teeming with young volunteers on Friday. At Basil’s office was a huge digital monitor facing him. It displayed a big map of Sri Lanka, with many red dots flashing. “This is an app that we have developed especially for this election, to monitor canvassing activity at each district in real time,” he has said. Basil-Wimal clash Following the statements made by Basil in his interview with The Hindu, the NFF led by Wimal Weerawansa had expressed its displeasure. The NFF had directed its objections towards Basil’s statement that he would strive to ensure the decentralisation of powers. The party, reporting on the matter on their website Lanka Lead News, is attempting to shape public opinion against Basil Rajapaksa's stance by presenting the opinion held by veteran author Gunadasa Amarasekara. “We must talk about what Basil Rajapaksa told The Hindu. Mahinda Rajapaksa had given a good answer on that matter to Sumanthiran. We agree with Mahinda's stance. We don't know if Basil actually said this, but we don't have anything to say in this regard. All we have to say is the same as we have been saying for a number of years. We have already devolved power in this country; even more so than India. Saying we will try to do it more is going beyond that. That is what the separatist elements have been wanting. This Government was appointed to cater to those elements. We must change the government to change this stance and not to just merely change the people in power,” Amarasekara was quoted as saying.

Tamil parties unite for common cause

By Easwaran Rutnam A group of Tamil political parties based in the North have united for a common cause ahead of the presidential election despite the political differences between some of them. Five Tamil political parties last week signed a memorandum highlighting the key demands of the Tamils. The memorandum was prepared by Tamil university students of the Jaffna and Eastern Universities after talks with the Tamil political parties, and is to be presented to the two main presidential candidates, Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Sajith Premadasa. The memorandum contains 13 demands including a demand for a political solution and abolishing the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). The Illangai Thamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), People’s Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE), Eelam People’s Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF), Tamil People’s Council (TPC), and Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO) signed the memorandum. “As far as the presidential election is concerned, the demands are what the five parties agreed on. Now we will look to meet the two main candidates as well as the JVP Leader and put forward our demands,” EPRLF Leader Suresh Premachandran told The Sunday Morning. Premachandran said that the decision by the five parties to meet the candidates as one group and press on the demands of the Tamils is seen as a positive move by the Tamils. “It is after a very long time that we are coming together as one voice on some key issues,” Premachandran added. The former Parliamentarian said that the five party leaders will meet among themselves before meeting the presidential candidates to put forward their demands and take the next step. No compromise Last week, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) member Wimal Weerawansa said SLPP presidential candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa would reject the conditions put forward by the five Tamil political parties. He said that the Tamil parties are attempting to merge the North and East and push for self-determination. “Our presidential candidate will not even look at the conditions in the memorandum,” Weerawansa said. Premachandran said that the five Tamil parties are anyway reconsidering meeting Rajapaksa following the comments he made at a media briefing last week. Rajapaksa had made controversial comments related to wartime disappearances and other Tamil concerns. “We have decided to meet him, but we may need to think twice after some of the comments he made at the press conference,” Premachandran said. United National Front (UNF) Leader Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was in Jaffna last week, had met with Premachandran and members of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). He had assured that he would arrange a meeting between Premadasa and the five Tamil parties to discuss the proposal and demands they have made. Premadasa had already publicly said he will not sign an agreement with any political party to obtain their support at the election. There have been calls for the TNA and other Tamil political parties to boycott the election on the basis that none of the candidates can be trusted. However, TNA Parliamentarian Seeniththamby Yogeswaran said that boycotting the election cannot be an option. He said the only democratic weapon in the hands of the Tamils is the right to vote and that must be used. “We are firm on that,” he said. Yogeswaran said that most Tamils in the North and East will back the candidate the TNA decides to support at the presidential election “As a result, the TNA will speak with the two main candidates and put forward its demands,” he said. He said that the candidate who assures a durable solution for the Tamils will be the one who will secure the support of the TNA at the election. ‘Not a new alliance’ Meanwhile, the Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) is of the opinion that the new union between the five Tamil political parties is merely an attempt to deceive the Tamils. EPDP Leader Douglas Devananda, who has extended support to SLPP presidential candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa, said that what is important is to protect what is already there and look to address outstanding issues. He said that some of the Tamil parties gave several assurances to secure votes at the last election and those assurances were not met. Now, he says those parties are creating new alliances to divert the attention from their failure to deliver on past assurances. “This is not really a new alliance. These are all parties that worked together earlier. They are just coming back together to safeguard their own interests and not in the best interest of the public,” he said. Devananda said that his party was focused on securing political rights for the Tamils in the North, ensuring their daily needs were met, and developing the North. He said these issues could be addressed only by aligning with the party which had a majority support in the country and according to him, that was the SLPP. Former Northern Province Chief Minister C.V. Wigneswaran, who was among those who signed the agreement, told The Sunday Morning that electorally there was no agreement to work together. "It is a memo setting out our urgent political and social needs. There are immediate needs and long-term needs identified. There is no agreement on working electorally together," he said. photos pradeep dambarage