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Among 14 national banking systems in Asia Pacific (APAC), Sri Lanka will see the worst core capital decline due to the severity of economic shocks to the country, its banks’ weaker starting solvency metrics, and historically weak underwriting, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report released yesterday (6).
TCE (tangible common equity) ratios at the majority of rated banks in Sri Lanka will plunge by more than 200 basis points by 2022, while in other economies, except India and Thailand, the proportion of such weak performers will range from 10-30% of rated banks, Moody’s said. In Malaysia, no bank will lose more than 100 basis points of TCE.
Core capital, which is measured by TCE as a percentage of risk-weighted assets (RWAs), will decline at 78% of the 218 banks in
APAC by the end of 2022 from the end of 2019, Moody’s said. However, declines in capital at most of these banks will not be significant enough to prompt Moody’s to change its views on their fundamental creditworthiness, which also take into account other factors of solvency and liquidity.
Indonesia, as a result of its banks' strong profitability, is the only national banking system which is forecast to see capitalisation strengthen in this period.
TCE ratios will fall by up to 100 basis points at 31% of banks in the APAC sample and by 100 basis points to 200 basis points at 25%. A further 22% of banks will see drops of more than 200 basis points, moderately higher than 18% in Europe, the US, the UK, Mexico, and Brazil.