- 50% public transport targets by 2030, 2040, 2050
- EV demand: 4,751 GWh (2040), 12,485 GWh (2050)
- Charging timed to vehicle idle periods
- Thermal generation could rise after 2040
- $ 15 b base case scenario cost
Sri Lanka’s ambitious drive to electrify its transport sector could come at a steep cost, with the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) revealing that the transition may add $ 1 billion in operational expenses to the country’s power system by 2044, as revealed in the CEB’s Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan (LTGEP) 2025-2044.
This projection is linked to the anticipated rise in electricity demand driven by aggressive Electric Vehicle (EV) penetration, as analysed in the plan.
According to the LTGEP, the growing need to decarbonise the transport sector has made the replacement of fuel-based vehicles with EVs a significant policy objective.
The CEB stated that this shift would directly influence electricity demand, stressing the importance of evaluating the implications of EV adoption on the base case scenario.
The plan has highlighted that an aggressive EV penetration scenario was analysed in detail in Sections 3.6 and 3.7 of Chapter 3 of the LTGEP.
It referenced the ongoing development of a national e-mobility policy by the Ministry of Transport and Highways, with support from the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), aimed at accelerating EV adoption.
Speaking to The Sunday Morning, Ministry of Energy Secretary Prof. Udayanga Hemapala said: “We are planning to develop a policy on electric transportation, which will be jointly formulated by the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Energy.”
Meanwhile, Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) Director General Damitha Kumarasinghe stated that the PUCSL was closely monitoring the increase in EV registrations.
However, he noted that at present, the impact on the electricity system was minimal due to the low number of EVs on the road. He also confirmed that the PUCSL has not requested the CEB to conduct any survey related to electric vehicles at this time.
A 2023 report has proposed three EV transition scenarios – Business-as-Usual (BAU), moderate, and aggressive – with goals of achieving a 50% public transport share by 2050, 2040, and 2030, respectively.
EV-related electricity demand is expected to remain relatively low until 2028 and is already factored into current forecasts. However, by 2040, demand could rise to 3,223 GWh under the moderate scenario and 4,751 GWh under the aggressive scenario, increasing further to 10,407 GWh and 12,485 GWh by 2050.
The LTGEP incorporates the aggressive scenario as a worst-case projection to guide long-term generation planning.
To estimate hourly EV electricity demand, the CEB has stated that it has analysed the inverse activity pattern of the EV fleet, identifying periods when vehicles are typically idle and thus available for charging. This approach allowed planners to pinpoint optimal low-activity periods for charging, helping to minimise stress on the grid and improve system efficiency.
The CEB has further reported that the analysis incorporated flexible demand potential, suggesting that charging behaviours could shift based on economic incentives such as time-of-use tariffs. These mechanisms, it noted, could help reduce grid load during peak periods and promote more efficient use of renewable energy sources.
The LTGEP analysis has concluded that the base case scenario could accommodate the additional demand from EVs while maintaining a 70% renewable energy share until 2040. However, the CEB has cautioned that beyond 2040, the system would likely require a significant increase in thermal generation – particularly during night-peak and off-peak hours – to meet growing electricity needs.
The report has highlighted that since the majority of future thermal additions are based on gas turbine technology, their continuous operation would substantially increase the plan’s operational costs, leading to the projected $ 1 billion increase. The CEB has also noted that maintaining the 70% renewable energy target beyond 2040 would be challenging, primarily due to limited renewable energy generation during night hours.
Despite these challenges, the CEB has emphasised the need for strategic planning and policy interventions to manage EV charging and optimise resource utilisation. It has observed that the operational cost increase had been partially mitigated by reducing renewable energy curtailment, achieved through daytime EV charging when solar energy availability is high.
The LTGEP has identified the base case scenario as a policy-constrained, technically feasible, least-cost expansion pathway for Sri Lanka’s power sector. The CEB has stated that after extensive planning studies (as outlined in Chapter 8), Scenario 3 – defined as ‘Maintain 70% RE from 2030 onwards, with 500 MW High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) interconnection, with nuclear power, no coal capacity additions’ – had been selected as the base case for the 2025-2044 period.
The key features of this scenario, as reported, include: a) achieving 70% renewable energy generation from 2030; b) future thermal power additions based on natural gas until 2035, followed by the introduction of hydrogen-blended (25-30%) natural gas; c) the addition of a 3x200 MW pumped storage power plant in 2034; d) a 500 MW HVDC interconnection with India in 2039; and e) the commissioning of a 600 MW nuclear power plant in 2044, replacing all units of the Lakvijaya Coal Power Plant.
The CEB has estimated the total present value cost of the base case scenario for the period 2025-2044 to be $ 15,090 million, using a 10% discount rate. It clarified that only costs relevant to future decision-making were included in the generation expansion plan, while the cost of developing essential transmission infrastructure would be addressed in subsequent transmission planning studies.