The number of Electric Vehicles (EVs) in Sri Lanka has risen significantly following the recent reopening of the vehicle import market. While this shift marks a positive step towards cleaner, low-emission transport and aligns with global climate goals, it also raises a crucial question: is the country’s energy infrastructure prepared to meet the growing demand for EV charging, especially as Sri Lanka grapples with challenges in its electricity sector?
Sri Lanka’s current power grid is heavily reliant on a combination of hydropower, coal, and thermal oil plants, and has yet to fully transition towards a modern Renewable Energy (RE)-based system. With limited storage facilities and slow progress in RE adoption, energy experts have voiced concerns that increased EV penetration could place additional pressure on an already fragile grid.
This is particularly concerning during nighttime hours, when most EV owners are likely to charge their vehicles after daily use. Solar and other RE sources are largely unavailable at night, and without adequate battery storage, this creates a demand-supply imbalance. The resulting stress on the power system could not only undermine grid stability but also lead to higher operational costs and increased dependence on fossil fuels.
Poor infrastructure
Against such a backdrop, raising concerns over the lack of proper infrastructure facilities, Solar Industries Association (SIA) President Kushan Jayasuriya stressed the importance of incentivising daytime EV charging, especially during working hours when vehicles were typically idle and solar power generation was at its peak.
Jayasuriya argued that encouraging charging during the day could help absorb the country’s frequent solar energy surpluses, which were otherwise wasted or curtailed to maintain grid stability.
“In some cases, we are forced to disconnect renewable power plants to manage grid stability,” he told The Sunday Morning, suggesting that it made far more sense to redirect this excess energy into EV charging during those hours.
He added: “Currently, Sri Lanka operates on a levelised electricity tariff, meaning consumers pay the same rate regardless of the time of day. This system needs to evolve.”
“A system with Time-of-Use (TOU) tariff structure that would offer lower electricity rates during off-peak hours and periods of renewable energy surplus should be implemented. Such pricing mechanisms could shift consumer behaviour and reduce nighttime charging, which is more expensive and environmentally burdensome due to the reliance on thermal generation. Nonetheless, implementing such a system would require significant metering upgrades and regulatory changes, costs that could potentially be passed on to consumers,” he said.
He explained that another pressing issue was the lack of a dedicated pricing structure for EV charging stations. At present, these stations do not fall under any specific electricity tariff category. Many EV owners are instead relying on domestic connections to charge their vehicles, which was never the intended use of such household supply networks. This not only complicates grid management but could also disincentivise the development of dedicated EV infrastructure.
Jayasuriya warned that unless this gap was addressed promptly, it could lead to logistical challenges, such as EVs being stranded on highways due to a lack of accessible and reliable charging stations.
Rather than relying solely on Government entities like the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) to develop the EV charging network, Jayasuriya observed that the private sector should be given a leading role. “Let demand drive the development,” he asserted, pointing to ongoing collaborations among private firms already working on expanding the national EV charging footprint.
He stressed that regulatory frameworks, real-time pricing mechanisms, and private-public partnerships must work in tandem to ensure that Sri Lanka was equipped to handle the shift to electric mobility.
Long-term planning
Despite the current limitations, the Government has made some progress towards long-term planning. The Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), in its Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan (LTGEP) (2025-2044), has begun incorporating the anticipated electricity demand from increased EV usage into its projections.
This move aligns with Sri Lanka’s commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change and its broader climate and sustainability objectives. Notably, the transport sector accounts for approximately 51% of the country’s national CO2 emissions, making the decarbonisation of this sector a national priority. Replacing internal combustion engine vehicles with electric alternatives is now seen as a critical strategy to reduce emissions and promote energy efficiency.
In November 2023, the Ministry of Transport and Highways, supported by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), released a draft report titled ‘Development of Policy Framework for EV Transition for Sri Lanka and Implementation Plan.’
The document outlines three distinct EV adoption scenarios: a Business as Usual (BAU) model, a moderate penetration scenario, and an aggressive penetration scenario. These scenarios represent varying levels of policy intervention, infrastructure investment, and public transport share targets, with the most ambitious aiming to reach a 50% public transport share by 2030.
The CEB has used these scenarios to project future electricity demand. Under the BAU scenario, the additional EV load is already factored into existing forecasts through 2025-2044. However, under both the moderate and aggressive models, EV charging demand is expected to remain relatively modest until 2028, after which a steep increase is anticipated.
By 2040, EVs could consume approximately 3,223 GWh under the moderate model and 4,751 GWh under the aggressive model. These figures could climb to 10,407 GWh and 12,485 GWh, respectively, by 2050. Such increases pose a substantial challenge for the national grid and demand preemptive planning and infrastructure readiness.
Demand increase
As highlighted in the CEB’s LTGEP, in order to address these issues, planners have begun to model charging behaviour using the inverse of the vehicle fleet’s daily activity profile. This approach identifies when vehicles are idle and most likely to be charged – typically during nighttime hours for individual users and potentially during the day for fleet or workplace charging.
By mapping these trends, the CEB can forecast peak charging loads and better integrate EV demand into its overall grid planning. Furthermore, flexible demand strategies, including time-sensitive pricing and load-shifting incentives, are being explored to ensure grid stability during peak periods.
Interestingly, while increased EV usage will undoubtedly raise electricity consumption, it may also reduce renewable energy curtailments – when solar and wind generation exceeds demand and must be shut down to protect grid balance. Greater daytime EV charging could utilise this excess RE output, enhancing efficiency and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. This could help Sri Lanka meet its ambitious target of sourcing 70% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2040.
Nevertheless, financial implications remain significant. Under the aggressive EV penetration model, operational costs are projected to rise by around $ 1 billion due to higher energy consumption and increased use of thermal power plants – especially gas turbines – to meet nighttime charging needs. Although technically feasible, maintaining a 70% renewable share beyond 2040 will become increasingly difficult without large-scale battery storage solutions or fundamental changes in charging behaviour.
To stay ahead of this challenge, energy experts have stressed the need for continued investment in grid modernisation, real-time monitoring systems, smart metering, and energy storage facilities. Additionally, revising tariff structures to reflect demand patterns and integrating RE sources will be essential. The aggressive scenario has already been incorporated into the current planning cycle as a worst-case benchmark to ensure the system is prepared for high-growth EV adoption.
Govt. stance
Ministry of Energy Secretary Prof. Udayanga Hemapala announced that the Government was in the process of formulating a comprehensive national policy on electric transportation. This policy will be developed jointly by the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Transport, reflecting a collaborative approach to promoting electric mobility in Sri Lanka.
The initiative aims to provide strategic direction for the adoption of EVs, the development of necessary infrastructure, and the effective integration of EVs into the national energy framework.
At the same time, Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) Director General Damitha Kumarasinghe stated that the commission was closely monitoring the increasing number of EV registrations in the country. He noted that the current impact of EVs on the electricity system was minimal, given the relatively low number of such vehicles on the road.
Kumarasinghe also confirmed that the PUCSL had yet to request the CEB to conduct any dedicated surveys or assessments related to EVs. However, he emphasised the importance of continued observation and preparedness as EV adoption grew.