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80-90 Covid deaths daily in 10-14 days

03 Aug 2021

  • Rajarata pandemic prediction model provides dire warning
  • Cites Delta, increased travel, false security from vaccines
  • SJB queries whether DGHS approved employees’ return to work
BY Pamodi Waravita Citing the high transmissibility rate of the B.1.617.2 Delta variant of Covid-19 and the increasing mobility of the public, Rajarata University’s Community Medicine Department Chair Prof. Suneth Agampodi yesterday (2) claimed that Sri Lanka would begin experiencing daily death tolls of at least 80-90 within the next 10 to 14 days. “We have developed a pandemic prediction model which was also able to correctly predict the progress of the ‘third wave’ of the pandemic in Sri Lanka. There is currently an exponential increase in deaths due to the virus. By conservative standards, we predict about 80 to 90 deaths per day within the next 10 to 14 days,” Prof. Agampodi told The Morning. According to Prof. Agampodi, data about the Delta variant from the University of Sri Jayewardenepura, combined with worldwide data on its spread, allows for valid concerns to be raised about its impact in the near future, despite the country’s speedy vaccination rate. “Vaccines have given people false assurances that they are safe from the virus. Although I believe that Sri Lanka is currently implementing one of the best vaccination programmes in the world, vaccines do not provide safety from the Delta variant. At least 80% of the population needs to be fully vaccinated for there to be an effective impact on curbing the spread of the virus.” According to the Epidemiology Unit, as of 1 August, the country had fully vaccinated (two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine) 2,254,887 people, which is approximately 10% of the total population. While pointing out that the economy dictates the need for people’s movement, Prof. Agampodi noted that the decreased concerns for health guidelines such as double-masking and social distancing are helping the fast spread of the Delta variant. The Health Promotion Bureau (HPB) has noted that Sri Lanka is currently experiencing a fatality rate of 1.45% and that as of 1 August has lost 4,508 lives to the virus. However, all state sector employees were called back to work yesterday while inter-provincial travel commenced again for state and private sector employees reporting to work. However, Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) parliamentarian S.M. Marikkar questioned this decision at a press conference yesterday. “The Government has asked all state employees to return to work. Has Director General of Health Services (DGHS) Dr. Asela Gunawardena supported this move? Health sector officials are warning us of the danger signs of the rising number of Covid-19 cases. Previously too, since the Government did not listen to the health officials, the country had to face a third wave. From the total of 4,508 deaths due to Covid-19, 1,316 deaths occurred in July,” he said. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has also cautioned that Covid-19 cases are increasing in Sri Lanka and around the world. However, WHO Director General Dr. Tedros Ghebreyesus yesterday commended the Government’s efforts to fully vaccinate 10% of the population ahead of its September target.


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