• ‘Out of bankruptcy’ statement changed amidst Opposition claims that RW attempting to mislead public
• RW camp working to get two-thirds majority vote for President’s speech on the 2nd; also working on crossovers
• ‘Aaranchiya Subhai’ campaign by singer and pro-SLPPer grabs attention, fails to achieve positive public response
• RW and Co. determined to get official SLPP support; Basil informed of Govt.’s gratitude towards SLPP
• Basil keeps quiet, sends Sagara and Renuka to meet EC to discuss polls; shows SLPP is ready to move alone
• Key SLPP meeting decides to support candidate who accepts ‘Mahinda Chinthana’ and could win an election
• Pro-Wickremesinghe SLPPers in a conundrum; Mahindananda says continuing Rajapaksa policy to support RW
• SLPP’s Kanchana organises rally in Matara for RW; SLPP decides not to attend and informs organisers
• Pro-Wickremesinghe, anti-Rajapaksa alliance by Yapa, Lanza, SLFP working to expand to become decisive force
• SLPP turns focus back on Dhammika for Prez Polls; wants to preserve identity, policies to rebuild party
• Sajith under pressure to act against errant MPs Rajitha and SF; Dullas cites example of MR’s stance on Mangala in 2005
• SJB begins house-to-house campaign to increase party popularity to 50% from the current 30% area 
• Sarvajana Balaya yet to decide on presidential candidate; will decide before nomination day, says Wimal

President Ranil Wickremesinghe and his Government were last week busy taking victory laps over the finalisation of the restructuring of Sri Lanka’s bilateral debt amounting to around $ 10 billion (Official Creditor Committee – OCC of the Paris Club and China’s Exim Bank) and the anticipated gains made in Wickremesinghe’s planned Presidential Election campaign.

Wickremesinghe and his camp nevertheless failed to muster the anticipated public support with the President’s address to the nation that Sri Lanka had finalised the debt restructuring programme with bilateral creditors and that the country was no longer bankrupt. In fact, in his address to the nation, the President finally refrained from stating that the country was out of bankruptcy and instead focused on the challenging period faced by the country, the latest achievement on the path to economic recovery, and the role played by him, while taking a swipe at his detractors.

The fireworks that were lit when the President commenced his speech indicates that the Wickremesinghe camp wanted to make his statement the focal point of his election campaign. The fireworks started from Dean’s Road, Maradana and spread to many parts of Colombo.

Wickremesinghe and his loyalists have been planning the ‘out of bankruptcy’ celebrations for weeks, only to be forced to change them given the criticism levelled against the misleading move. In fact, the President even hinted about the finalising of the bilateral creditors’ debt restructuring programme during Poson Poya celebrations in Thanthirimale. He had said that Sri Lanka was likely to come out of bankruptcy earlier than anticipated. 

After planning a series of celebrations for Thursday (27), the Wickremesinghe Government tried to keep the plans under wraps with the intention of making a surprise announcement on Wednesday (26) following an advertising campaign during last weekend, with media advertisements saying ‘Aaranchiya Subhai’ (Good news).

However, ‘The Black Box’ last week revealed details of the planned celebrations as well as the organisers. Realising the cat was out of the bag and that everyone knew about the finalisation of the debt restructuring programme, the Government decided to announce on Monday (24) that President Wickremesinghe would address the nation on Wednesday.

However, questions started to make rounds in political circles early last week about Wickremesinghe’s planned declaration that the country was out of bankruptcy, given that Sri Lanka is yet to reach a final agreement with private creditors (International Sovereign Bond [ISB] holders). Also, another factor that was taken up was how Wickremesinghe could think of claiming Sri Lanka was no longer bankrupt even without making any debt repayments to foreign creditors.

Economists have been continuously warning that unless prudent actions are taken, Sri Lanka runs the risk of facing a relapse of the economic crisis once loan repayments recommence in five years.

Opposition parties also put a dampener on the celebrations by pointing out that Sri Lanka could not declare yet that it was out of bankruptcy. 

Main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) Member of Parliament (MP) Dr. Harsha de Silva was among the first to point out that it was the rating agencies that should announce that the nation had come out of bankruptcy.

“We have heard that President Ranil Wickremesinghe is to announce that Sri Lanka has come out of bankruptcy. However, it is the rating agencies which have to accept and announce that Sri Lanka has come out of bankruptcy. Sri Lanka has to have a triple C rating to come out of bankruptcy,” he pointed out.

2 July plan

Be that as it may, the Wickremesinghe camp has planned special parliamentary sessions on 2 and 3 July as another key point in the campaign.

Parliament is to convene on Tuesday (2) for a special session following a request made by the Prime Minister from the Speaker of Parliament. President Wickremesinghe is to address the House on Tuesday, when he is expected to give details of the agreements with bilateral creditors and the statement is to be debated on Tuesday and Wednesday (3), with a vote to be held on Wednesday. 

The Government is looking at getting a two-thirds majority vote in favour of the President’s statement. This, the President and his loyalists believe, will give a clear green light for Wickremesinghe to announce his candidacy at the upcoming Presidential Election.

Members of the Wickremesinghe camp are now busy at work trying to get several crossovers from the Opposition to take place during these two days. The President is also expected to invite parties in the parliamentary Opposition as well as individual MPs to join with the Government’s programme on economic recovery.

Several United National Party (UNP) seniors – Wajira Abeywardena, Ruwan Wijewardene, Ravi Karunanayake, and Sudath Chandrasekera, among others – are engaged in discussions with members of the Opposition to muster their support for Wickremesinghe.

It will definitely be interesting to see how many Opposition members will cross the great divide in the House.

Checking the pulse

However, following the President’s grand announcement last week, Wickremesinghe’s political camp has sought a fresh survey to be carried out to check the pulse of the people. It is evident that Wickremesinghe and his loyalists believe that the President’s address to the nation would have had an impact on the masses and pushed his support base, making him climb higher in the popularity list.

The last survey conducted by intelligence units indicated that although Wickremesinghe’s popularity had increased to around 20%, he was still placed third, behind Opposition and SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa and Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD).

It is learnt that several of Wickremesinghe’s confidants have advised him to take into account the outcome of the latest survey that is to be carried out by the intelligence units before unfolding his campaign for the Presidential Election.

Counter-campaign 

However, the media campaign launched by the Wickremesinghe camp in the run-up to the President’s address to the nation – ‘Aaranchiya Subhai’ – became one of the most talked-about campaigns. While it managed to grab the attention of the people, it failed to provide the anticipated positive outcome for Wickremesinghe and the Government.

The campaign was planned by Ministers Manusha Nanayakkara, Harin Fernando, and Prasanna Ranatunga and Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) MP Mahindananda Aluthgamage. Nanayakkara’s chosen lead for Wickremesinghe’s campaign, Susara Dinal of the MTV/MBC Group, along with foreign media strategists, had also planned the campaign.

However, it is also learnt that the campaign had been carried out by a pro-SLPP and pro-Rajapaksa individual engaged in political advertising. This young individual, who was at one time a singer, has been closely affiliated with SLPP National Organiser Namal Rajapaksa. Hearing this individual’s name as the person engaged in the ‘Aaranchiya Subhai’ campaign, many pro-UNP members in the Wickremesinghe campaign had expressed surprise and concern over his involvement in the Wickremesinghe campaign.

Interestingly, the counter-campaign to ‘Aaranchiya Subhai’ was launched within hours. The Wickremesinghe camp blamed the Opposition parties for it, while the countering poster campaign – ‘Aaranchiya Subhai, Pohottuwen Apekshakayek’ (Good news, a candidate from the SLPP) – left many wondering if the counter-campaign was launched by the SLPP.

However, pro-Wickremesinghe SLPPers, Ranatunga and Aluthgamage told the media that there was no truth behind the poster campaign about a candidate from the SLPP since the party had not made any such decision. “I’m an SLPPer and I say that the party has not made any decision to field a candidate at the Presidential Election,” Aluthgamage charged.

The Wickremesinghe camp blamed the SJB and the JVP/NPP for the counter-campaign, saying that they were unable to stomach Wickremesinghe’s achievement for the country.

New campaign

Soon after President Wickremesinghe’s address on Wednesday, his campaign heads launched another campaign – ‘Me Velave Ranil Thamayi’ (It is Ranil at this time). This statement also figured prominently during the media conference held by the Wickremesinghe camp on Thursday. The participants noted that Wickremesinghe was the only leader with experience and vision to see through the current challenges.

This latest campaign has also resulted in a political debate, mostly on social media.

The latest campaigns by the Wickremesinghe group have created an impression of an opinion poll on Wickremesinghe on social media with people seeming to be divided into two camps – pro-Wickremesinghe and anti-Wickremesinghe.

Nevertheless, it will be the actual people’s sentiments and ground realities that will play a role at the ballot.

Pacifying Basil

However, Wickremesinghe, who has been trying to convince the SLPP headed by the Rajapaksas to support him at the Presidential Election, was faced with an unexpected issue when SLPP theoretician Basil Rajapaksa had lost his cool with SLPP Minister Ranatunga recently, when the latter had stated that some members in the Wickremesinghe camp felt the Rajapaksas supporting Wickremesinghe would have a negative impact at the upcoming elections.

Basil’s response that the SLPP did not want to be part of any action that did not accept the party or its policies and the threat that the SLPP could easily field its own candidate at the upcoming Presidential Election had resulted in Wickremesinghe intervening to pacify Basil.

It is learnt that the President had told Basil that neither he nor his loyalists would undermine the SLPP since it was the SLPP that had backed him to assume the presidency in 2022. “We are carrying out the Government at present because of the SLPP and we always give credit where it’s due. Ask Wajira (Abeywardena) how we always appreciate the role played by the SLPP in Government,” Wickremesinghe had told Basil.

Basil gets activated

After remaining noncommittal in the face of Wickremesinghe’s explanations, Basil decided to initiate his own actions. The following day, Basil had sent SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam and the party’s Administrative Secretary Renuka Perera to meet with the Election Commission (EC).

It is learnt that the two SLPP officials had been tasked with getting the exact timelines for the Presidential Election from the EC for the SLPP to make the necessary preparations.

Basil also intended the meeting between the SLPP and the EC to send out a message to the Wickremesinghe camp that the SLPP was also ready to face the election.

Message to organisers

Meanwhile, the SLPP seniors had also sent out messages to the party’s electoral organisers in the south, especially in the Matara District, that the SLPP would not be participating in the rally being organised by SLPP Minister Kanchana Wijesekera in Matara today (30).

President Wickremesinghe is also to address the Matara rally. 

Wijesekera has been identified as a pro-Wickremesinghe member of the SLPP and he had sent out messages to SLPPers in Matara to attend the rally.

However, it will be interesting to see today if the SLPP leaders at Nelum Mawatha, Battaramulla still hold power over the party’s electoral mechanism. If electoral organisers of the SLPP refrain from attending the Wijesekera-organised Wickremesinghe rally in Matara today, the message of the SLPP to the Wickremesinghe camp will be loud and clear.

MR’s stance

SLPP Leader, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR) meanwhile expressed confidence last week about forming an SLPP government, saying that it was the party’s target.

As for whether the SLPP would continue with the ongoing partnership with President Wickremesinghe, MR noted that was a decision that was yet to be taken. “That is a decision to be taken later. The party will make the decision at the proper time,” he said.

As for the party’s presidential candidate, MR observed that the SLPP had many potential candidates and the final decision would be announced by the party. However, the SLPP has already assigned the decision-making powers on the party’s presidential candidate to MR.

He also assured that neither he nor the SLPP would allow President Wickremesinghe to arbitrarily change laws and regulations that govern the country. MR had made this statement in response to concerns raised by trade unions affiliated to Sri Lanka Customs that the President was trying to arbitrarily amend the Customs Ordinance.

MR had earlier written to President Wickremesinghe expressing concerns and opposition to Wickremesinghe’s plans to divest State assets as part of the State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) reforms programme. Nevertheless, MR voted in favour of restructuring the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), which has been touted as privatisation of the CEB, in Parliament.

SLPP meets

Meanwhile, the SLPP’s key decision-making bodies – the Executive Committee, All-Island Working Committee, and the Politburo – met last Monday (24) at MR’s official residence at Wijerama Mawatha in Colombo 7. The meeting was attended by party seniors and led by MR.

During the meeting, it was decided to amend the party Constitution in a manner where action could be taken to sack from the party and cancel the MP post of an SLPP member who defects from the party.

It was also decided that it would be the party leadership who would appoint an acting general secretary in the event the party’s general secretary is indisposed or travelling overseas. Also, the recently created post of national convener is also to be appointed by the party leader. SLPP MP Rohitha Abeygunawardena was appointed to this post at the last Executive Committee meeting held last month.

Notice to RW

The meeting last Monday was addressed by SLPP General Secretary Kariyawasam, National Organiser Namal, and Abeygunawardena.

Both Namal and Abeygunawardena have been critical of SLPP defectors who are now making critical comments of the SLPP and its leaders.

Interestingly, in what seems to be a swipe at President Wickremesinghe, several SLPP members at the meeting had raised questions about the criticism being levelled against the party by the likes of SLPP dissidents Nimal Lanza who have expressed allegiance to the President, only to be told by party seniors that a decision would have to be made (by President Wickremesinghe) on whether he wanted the new alliance of SLPP dissidents or the SLPP.

It is interesting that neither MR nor party theoretician Basil addressed the meeting.

Three conditions 

The SLPP Executive Committee meeting also discussed the party’s candidate at the Presidential Election and decided on three conditions to be met by the candidate supported by the party.

SLPP MP Sanjeewa Edirimanna, who is a Basil loyalist, made several proposals to the gathering. One was for the party to make a decision on its stance on the Presidential Election since it was already late in reaching a decision on the matter.

Edirimanna also proposed three conditions that should be met by the candidate that the SLPP would field or support at the upcoming Presidential Election. These qualifications include the acceptance of ‘Mahinda Chinthana’ policies, someone who has the ability to win at the election, and an individual who accepts and respects the SLPP’s unique identity and pride. The gathering at the meeting had accepted and approved the proposals presented by Edirimanna.

Given the acceptance of these conditions, it is evident that the SLPP is gradually sending out the message that the party’s chances of supporting Wickremesinghe are indeed very slim. In the event the SLPP decides to support Wickremesinghe, it could mean two things – Wickremesinghe has accepted the Rajapaksas’ policies and the ‘Mahinda Chinthana’ or the Rajapaksas have accepted Wickremesinghe’s policies.

Mahindananda’s explanation 

However, the ideological split over the party’s stance and support at the upcoming Presidential Election was once again witnessed last week by a statement made by senior SLPPer Aluthgamage.

With the SLPP yet to officially announce its decision on the Presidential Election and candidate, while party seniors including National Organiser Namal continue to make statements to the effect that the party cannot support President Wickremesinghe given policy differences, Aluthgamage, who has expressed support of Wickremesinghe, noted that his decision to support the President was in line with the party decision.

Aluthgamage claimed that a group of senior SLPPers including the Rajapaksas had decided to support President Wickremesinghe based on the decision of the Rajapaksas to elect and support Wickremesinghe as the President in 2022. “We stand by their [the Rajapaksas’] decision and we support Wickremesinghe as a result of that,” he said. He made this statement after attending the SLPP Executive Committee meeting last Monday.

Focus back on Dhammika

With the SLPP clearly indicating that President Wickremesinghe does not accept and follow the party’s policies, Namal last week clearly stated during a public event that the President’s actions ran contrary to the policies of the SLPP.

The SLPP’s candidate at the upcoming Presidential Election is likely to be businessman-turned-politician Dhammika Perera. While Perera was a frontrunner in the SLPP’s list of candidates, Basil had asked him to give the party some time to make a final decision since President Wickremesinghe had requested the SLPP to support him at the Presidential Election.

However, the failure between the Wickremesinghe camp and the SLPP to seal the deal and the split in the Wickremesinghe camp over the Rajapaksas’ support for Wickremesinghe have resulted in a majority of the SLPP looking at fielding their own candidate at the upcoming Presidential Election.

The thinking of the SLPP seniors is that the party will be in a better position to rebuild even if it is unable to secure a victory at the polls by safeguarding its identity and policies. This will not be possible if the SLPP supports Wickremesinghe at the polls.

Wellawaya rally

The pro-Wickremesinghe and anti-Rajapaksa alliance formed by SLPP dissidents Lanza and Anura Yapa and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) Nimal Siripala de Silva faction yesterday (29) held a rally in Wellawaya.

The alliance, which has the support of 19 MPs, is working towards further expanding with the support of more MPs. The expansion of this new alliance will also play a key role in the decision-making process of the Wickremesinghe campaign in the days to come.

Dullas’ advice

Meanwhile, the main Opposition SJB continues to generate news, especially on the issue of defections to the Government. Although many senior SJB members whose names were in lists prepared by the Government as ‘would-be’ defectors have maintained that they have no plans to defect, the names of several SJBers like Dr. Rajitha Senaratne and Sarath Fonseka continue to be touted as MPs waiting to support Wickremesinghe and defect to the Government.

It is in such a backdrop that dissident MP of the SLPP Dullas Alahapperuma, who formed the Freedom People’s Council (FPC) together with a group of SLPP dissident MPs, had recently spoken of Opposition and SJB Leader Premadasa.

Alahapperuma had said that Premadasa was taking too much time to make decisions. Citing an example of former President MR, Alahapperuma had said that MR had decided to remove the late Minister Mangala Samaraweera, who had played a key role in ensuring MR’s victory at the 2005 Presidential Election, from his Government in 2005. Although he [Alahapperuma] and Basil Rajapaksa had reminded MR of the role played by Samaraweera to ensure his victory, the decision had not been changed. 

MR at the time had told Alahapperuma and Basil that since Samaraweera had already decided to leave the Government, he [MR] had to act fast to ensure that Samaraweera did not score political points by first announcing his decision to leave the Government.

According to Alahapperuma, he had cited this example to Premadasa while asking the Opposition Leader to make a decision about the likes of SJB MPs Fonseka and Senaratne before they made a move and scored political points. Fonseka and Senaratne have openly indicated their desire to extend support to President Wickremesinghe.

Alahapperuma had made these comments during the wedding reception of a journalist held at Waters Edge recently.

SF facing the axe

Meanwhile, SJB members from the Gampaha District last week went public with the call for the SJB leadership to initiate action against Fonseka by sacking him from the party.

In response to the call, SJB General Secretary Ranjith Madduma Bandara said that the SJB Disciplinary Committee had been assigned to act against Fonseka. Madduma Bandara also noted that Fonseka had been acting in violation of party decisions and making comments against the party leadership for some time and it was now time to take action.

Fonseka meanwhile claimed that he was prepared to face any challenge and once again expressed his desire to provide political leadership to a movement. He posted on X: “The time has come for Sri Lanka to move ahead in the right political direction... I am willing to take on any challenge on behalf of our motherland.”

Fonseka had also invited President Wickremesinghe as the Chief Guest at the event held to launch his book on the war on Friday (28). SJB seniors were not seen at the event.

Nevertheless, Premadasa remains silent on initiating action against errant MPs.

Action against perks

Leaders of Opposition political parties have meanwhile decided to initiate disciplinary action against legislators representing the respective parties for violating the parties’ stance over the acceptance of funds under the decentralised budget.

The allocation of funds under the decentralised budget to several selected Opposition MPs with the intervention of President Wickremesinghe has been gathering fire, with Opposition Leader Premadasa and Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) Leader Rauff Hakeem both expressing displeasure over the manner in which the monies have been allocated with the aim of getting the relevant MPs to cross over to the Government side.

Hakeem has said that several of his party members had also accepted funds under the President’s special allocations from the decentralised budget and that the SLMC would initiate disciplinary action against such MPs.

The main Opposition SJB however is yet to decide about initiating disciplinary action against the party’s MPs who have accepted Wickremesinghe’s funds from the decentralised budget as well as liquor licences in some instances.

House-to-house campaign

Amidst the ongoing political activities, the SJB has launched a house-to-house campaign aimed at covering almost 90% of households in the country in the next few weeks.

The campaign, which is to be launched at electoral level, is being led by MP Kabir Hashim and former MP Sujeewa Senasinghe under the supervision of several senior SJBers, including Lakshman Fonseka. The programme is being coordinated by former Chairman of the Road Development Authority (RDA) Nihal Sooriyarachchi.

It is learnt that this programme is expected to increase the party’s current popularity that is at around 30% to around 50%.

Wijeyadasa’s plan

Meanwhile, the ongoing crisis within the SLFP took a new twist with Justice Minister Dr. Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, who was issued court orders suspending his leadership of the SLFP, claiming that he will contest at the upcoming Presidential Election and eventually take over the party leadership.

Rajapakshe has claimed that the SLFP leadership issue will be resolved after he wins the Presidential Election.

He told the media that all court cases against him would automatically be dismissed as per the Constitution once he became the president. In response to a question raised by a journalist regarding the upcoming Presidential Election, he said: “Yes, I will run for the presidency and I will win. After that, all the court cases against me will automatically be dismissed as per the Constitution. Then, there will be no issues pertaining to the party’s leadership.” 

Commenting further, he expressed that he would contest at the upcoming Presidential Election under a new symbol. “The SLFP has contested elections with different symbols (other than the hand symbol) such as the chair, the betel leaf, and the swan. Then, the symbols of the last decade will not match this election. We are introducing a new symbol,” he added.

Candidate conundrum 

Another presidential candidate conundrum seems to have affected another political movement – the Sarvajana Balaya alliance.

The alliance, consisting of Right-wing ultra-nationalist groups, stated during its launch that it would field a pro-nationalist candidate at the upcoming Presidential Election. However, the Sarvajana Balaya is yet to decide on the party’s candidate at the election.

Member of the alliance, National Freedom Front (NFF) Leader and dissident MP of the SLPP Wimal Weerawansa says the alliance members are currently in discussion about its candidate. When asked about the time factor and the need to make a decision soon, Weerawansa told the media that there was enough time since the candidate could be finalised the day before handing in nominations for the Presidential Election.

Defeat for RW

President Wickremesinghe meanwhile faced a second defeat before the Constitutional Council (CC) last week when the council voted against the granting of a six-month service extension to former Attorney General (AG) Sanjay Rajaratnam.

Wickremesinghe was not ready to give up on getting Rajaratnam an extension of service after the council’s rejection of his request the first time around and proposed the service extension for the former AG to the CC a second time.

The President had re-proposed the service extension to Rajaratnam while posing a question to CC Head, Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena on the legality of the letter submitted by the three civil society members in the council expressing their opposition to granting the relevant service extension.

However, the second proposal was also defeated at the council.

It is learnt that the President had made the second proposal to the CC despite advice by Wickremesinghe loyalist, President’s Counsel Ronald Perera and several others not to do so.