• SL should begin training the next generation of maritime domain awareness analysts and security analysts
• Renewable energy coastal infrastructure, pipelines, seabed cables, and possible offshore oil and gas platforms will bring new challenges
• Cybersecurity becoming a serious concern for maritime security and maritime activities

Sri Lanka will need to plan ahead to face evolving challenges in the maritime domain around the island and link up with regional security and information sharing architecture to be better prepared for complex challenges in the future, maritime expert and University of Copenhagen Professor of International Relations Christian Bueger told The Sunday Morning in an exclusive interview, where he discussed the importance of Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) and its trends.

Prof. Bueger, who is also the co-author of the 2024 book ‘Understanding Maritime Security’ with Timothy Edmunds, was in Colombo last week and spoke to The Sunday Morning on the sidelines of a workshop organised by the National Security College of the Australian National University on ‘New Frontiers in Maritime Information Sharing in the Indian Ocean’.

Following are excerpts:

Why are the oceans so important for coastal and maritime states?

Let me start by saying that in no other part of human history have we been so dependent on the sea. Since the 1990s all forms of maritime activity have been on the rise. We are more and more dependent on the sea for energy dependence. About 30% of our energy supplies are sourced from the sea. 

Today, when you look at maritime activities, everything – from tourism (cruise liners), trade via shipping, and food supply from aquaculture-related industries, to energy supply and digital connectivity of the world – is on the rise and becoming invaluable. That also means that the more dependent we are on the sea, the more vulnerable we are as nations and a global community to what happens at sea. 

I think regional seas have become more industrialised. If you look at the Sri Lankan southern coast, you will see hundreds and thousands of ships; there is so much ship traffic. I feel that we should not think of the sea as something that is pristine in nature; it is actually now an industrialised space in which we must manage what is going on. This is why knowing what happens at sea has become important as well as having a solid management approach, which go hand in hand.

As such, how important is it for small coastal and maritime states like Sri Lanka to improve their MDA?

Sri Lanka is an island faced with an extremely high volume of ship traffic around it. Two other island nations in the Indian Ocean have similar issues, but not at the scale Sri Lanka has to deal with. Further, Sri Lanka has tremendous potential for wind energy, fishing, and ‘Blue Economy’-related matters. 

A broader understanding of MDA also involves how to manage what’s going on. There is data and information, which come from MDA. Then there is the matter of how to use the data to better understand and manage the oceans around us. MDA is very important for small states and large ones too.

This century has seen a significant growth in asymmetrical threats in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). What do you think are the key security and geopolitical concerns for Sri Lanka in the IOR at present?

Since the world is a ball, what happens in other countries and other oceans also impacts the Indian Ocean. And what is at the centre of the Indian Ocean? Sri Lanka! So Sri Lanka is really in the middle of everything and what happens elsewhere impacts Sri Lanka. 

Recently, we saw what happened in the West Indian Ocean and Red Sea and its impact on shipping. We have also seen issues such as piracy raise its head again. We saw a Sri Lankan fishing boat being hijacked last year.  There are also concerns about maritime crime, pollution, and the struggle for resources.

Over the last few years, we have seen concerns about Chinese Port investments in Sri Lanka and who is allowed to conduct marine scientific surveys in Sri Lankan waters. In many ways, the pressures coming from outside are a challenge, which makes it difficult for the Sri Lankan Government to navigate around them. 

It also creates new opportunities. Few island nations have become masters of being friends with everyone and being enemies of no one. In many ways that is a specialisation of the Indian Ocean islands – think about Seychelles or Mauritius. This also applies to some Pacific Ocean islands. We call that ‘smart foreign policy.’ 

You really need to be clever in how you navigate that space.  It can potentially allow you to do other things by talking to many sides. That is a strategy which Sri Lanka needs to master, because everyone needs Sri Lanka, one way or the other. 

Sri Lanka is also an ancient island where the East and West have met and left a lasting impact on its civilisation, and so the country can take that ‘Creole-like’ identity and culture and use it to form a strategic advantage. 

When it comes to facing geopolitical issues, while small states are important, multilateralism and favouring regional cooperation should be key tools for countries like Sri Lanka as this will to some degree constrain the impact from great power competition.

What can Sri Lanka do from a regional perspective to improve its capability to better manage ocean-related issues?

In terms of regional cooperation, it would be beneficial for the Sri Lankan Government to consider if and how it can join the regional maritime security architecture, such as the Maritime Security (MASE) Programme, which has been developed by the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC). 

MASE is not confined to the current membership; what happens in the West Indian Ocean impacts Sri Lanka. Such regional maritime security architecture will help improve MDA and also the response to crises at sea. 

Let’s not forget shipping accident incidents like the MV X-Press Pearl and MT New Diamond or the MV Wakashio incident in Mauritius. Sri Lanka can join a conversation on how regional states can work together to improve response capabilities. There are also other regional architectures such as those being discussed through regional bodies such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA).

Given the vast expanses of the IOR, why is it necessary for close cooperation amongst states for effective MDA and improving maritime security? 

If it comes to maritime security, one of the main questions is always, what is the right regional scope? Should we have one for the Red Sea, one for the West Indian Ocean, one for the South (Indian Ocean), one for the Bay of Bengal, etc.? Should we have one for the Indian Ocean as a whole, one for the Pacific Ocean, one for the Baltic, etc.? The question of whether we should have a global system has also been raised.

I think the answer is all of this. Maritime security is best addressed through a patchwork of different mechanisms; obviously we have to keep a close eye on not creating too much duplication of efforts. Think of it like this: if you’re having a heart attack, would you want there to be a top-notch hospital 30 km away or would you have two lesser hospitals round the bend?

I feel that we should keep an eye on what are called ‘interface conflicts’ between different mechanisms. For instance, the initiatives taken under IORA and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) are fully compatible with what is happening through BIMSTEC and what is happening in the West Indian Ocean through the IOC’s MASE Programme. What the IOC does is based on legally binding conventions and there are clear expectations on what needs to be done.  

What is your assessment of Sri Lanka’s MDA capacity? 

I think Sri Lanka in many ways is a model case for developing MDA as a small state. I have been impressed about the scale of challenges Sri Lanka faces and how the country has moved to develop its MDA capabilities. 

One of the challenges Sri Lanka is likely to face is dealing with all the data. Improving analytical capabilities to understand the data and create actionable intelligence will likely need to be looked into. Sri Lanka can clearly benefit from joining more of the regional agreements to be less dependent on one platform. 

I think it is also about developing a long-term plan and specialised training, which will be needed. I think Sri Lanka needs to begin thinking about MDA analysts and security analysts of the future. It’s not only about who is doing this now; it’s about who will be analysing this data and more data in the future. 

You need a robust training programme. You need people who have some operational understanding, a good grounding in IT skills, and understanding about maritime law. You need them to know about how the maritime industry works. So that is a distinctive profile you need to look for. It is not something everyone can do.

The fact that Sri Lanka has already established a joint regional training centre with the French authorities (Regional Centre for Maritime Studies [RCMS]) could be one opportunity Sri Lanka explores to train future MDA analysts. It can be one of many routes that can be taken.

It is important to think ahead and anticipate what Sri Lanka will need in 10 or 20 years. When the wind farms and pipelines come into the picture, coastal Sri Lanka will become more complex; add seabed cables to that mix and you add another layer of complexity. 

Imagine the navigational challenges for ships and fishing vessels, accidents at an offshore wind farm, a terrorist attack on such infrastructure offshore, migrants or protesters taking over a wind farm, etc. Anticipating these challenges is important. 

You need sound marine special planning and need to think through the implication of growing maritime activities on law enforcement and security. Add to this mix the growing climate change-related issues and there is much to plan and prepare for. This is why it is important to have a good planning process.

How will the improvements in satellite remote sensing, growth in the MDA marketplace, and use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) impact MDA in the next decade? 

Basically, the next decade will move fast. While there are new sensing technologies, some of them are expensive. The question is also how much countries like Sri Lanka are willing to invest in such systems. There is always a question about ‘how much is enough?’ Sometimes it is never enough. That is a political choice. Because you are never 100% completely secure. Therefore, we need to develop a pragmatic system that allows us to not miss the big picture. 

More sensors help, but it also means more ‘noise’ and complexities to navigate. It will be equally important not to lose sense of physical efforts extended to do the routine and specialist security work and the humans behind such efforts. Maritime security is not a computer game.

Let’s not forget that new technologies and systems also bring new challenges in incorporating existing systems and also new vulnerabilities such as cybersecurity gaps which can be exploited. That is also a concern. 

Cybersecurity is getting more complicated in the maritime security sector and is also becoming more expensive. If you look at the globe today, increasingly there are cyberattacks on maritime infrastructure such as ports, ships, and energy systems.

Do you feel that critical maritime infrastructure vulnerabilities of states are increasingly becoming a significant security concern?

Yes, this is a growing global concern. The more infrastructure you have at sea, the more you are vulnerable. 

For example, Sri Lanka’s wind energy potential is enormous. Therefore, when it comes online and begins to contribute a significant amount to national energy requirements, and is perhaps ready to be exported to other countries, then that infrastructure becomes critical for national interest. The electricity cables which will lead out of the farms need to be protected diligently. 

Look at the security challenges we see with disruptions to undersea cables worldwide. It started with the Nord Stream and is now in the Baltics and off Taiwan. It has gradually escalated and such attacks have to stop. 

What’s happening to the undersea cables is unacceptable. We should move on sabotage in Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and have some robust decisions at the global stage, perhaps a United Nations (UN)-level discussion on it. These cables are globally important.

Do you think that nation states should attempt to adopt a set of guidelines and standards on MDA information sharing and responses? 

Yes, I think so. We discussed this at the conference as well. 

We need to start developing a process for a standing body that looks into this – a body which can bring the sensor providers, platform providers, states, and regional mechanisms to come together – so there is more efficiency and compatibility, better standards, and a uniform set of digital security standards for future MDA platforms, sensors, and tools.