The last two weeks has been an interesting period with the island’s polity gathering steam to do what they do best, shape narratives and run for elections. 

Over the last two years, the Government of President Ranil Wickremesinghe and Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, had held their ground that Sri Lankans should ‘tighten their belts’ and dig deep in order to weather the storm of economic crisis and bankruptcy.  The public, especially the vulnerable communities have borne the brunt of the many austerity measures taken by the State to steady the listing economy and get the ship moving, under the agreement which was negotiated with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The State had bitterly resisted calls by many sectors for relief, standing their ground about ‘fiscal discipline’ and ‘reduction of state expenditure’ which the IMF had stressed Sri Lanka to follow.

However, the last two weeks has seen the Government signalling about turning on many of such policies and candidates who are stepping up to run for Presidency are making wild suggestions about the planned reforms process, and the entire IMF agreement itself. Given the dire situation Sri Lanka is in, such behaviour by the Government at this stage and bombastic statements by some of the candidates will do little to paint Sri Lanka in as a politically and economically stable destination for tourists, investors and creditors alike. Until the ‘election fever’ went viral amongst the policy making community, they rejected almost every plea from the public who were squeezed dry due to taxes and cost of living.

The Government, with President Ranil Wickremesinghe at the helm, is today showering previously rejected relief requests like gamblers who have hit the jackpot. The tragedy is that Wickremesinghe, with a majority of the SLPP in tow, is desperately trying to win back the voter bases it has alienated. Today, the President and his backers are indicating to the state sector that salary hikes and cost-of-living allowances which were stubbornly denied over the last two years, will likely materialise soon. The Government and the President have also hinted at certain segments of the state sector being earmarked for relief, likely hoping that it will generate adequate votes at the upcoming Election. 

Trade Unions like the Government Medical Officers Association (GMOA) and some from the higher education sector are already with plans which they will rush to candidates to sniff out who will cut them a large slice of cheese. This turn of events reflects poorly on Sri Lanka’s commitment to continue with the agreement. Further, it must be taken into consideration that Sri Lanka, which is heavily dependent on tourism, smooth flow of maritime trade, and foreign worker remittance, is still significantly vulnerable to global disruptions. Given the risk that are involved local politicians cannot simply stare into a crystal ball and make assumptions that all will be okay over the next six months to a year. We live in an era, where disruptions and conflict are near instantaneous and the impact significant. There are no guarantees today. The risk is simply too much to take, especially with our foreign currency situation, not fully beefed up to act as a buffer for shocks. The Middle-East situation, with the now anticipated retaliation for the killing of the leader of Hamas, remains volatile. Sri Lanka has too many eggs in the Middle-East basket, in terms of energy security, massive expat community and a significant portion of the worker remittances, which kept the island barely above water, during 2022 and 2023. The Government is hinting at a further drop in utilities prices, and is giving the citizen a peek at the possibility of high dollar imports such as vehicles in the near future, all in the lead up to the Presidential Election, and a possible General Election which will likely follow. 

Yes, Sri Lanka needs to import private vehicles at some stage, but do we really need our politicians dangling that carrot ahead of an election? The Government and other candidates all have to act with a greater sense of responsibility. The voters must also identify the narratives that are being pushed for the sake of political expediency. The polity must not be allowed to gamble away hard-earned stability, by making unrealistic promises, which may jeopardise economic stability and the recovery effort.