The fall of Assad rule in Syria and the collapse of the regime which stood for more than 50 years has multiple implications for the region and beyond. The Syrian civil war, which was largely dormant for several years, erupted with significant momentum causing the long-standing regime of Bashar al-Assad to collapse in days. The push to take the capital, ended the 60-year reign of the Assad family and the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party which took power following the 1963 military coup. A loosely allied group of rebels, militias, spearheaded by Al Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led by internationally wanted Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, was the driving force behind the sudden eruption of the conflict. In a repeat of how some national armed forces in the region have behaved before, the Syrian armed forces seemingly disintegrated, surrendered, or according to some reports switched sides during the sudden offensive. 

The fall of Assad will impact Iran and its power in the region. With Syria now lost or no longer friendly, Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ which was used to support militant groups and proxies around the region is at risk of falling apart. With all that’s happened in the Middle East and North Africa over the last two decades, and especially since the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, Bashar Assad’s regime remained Iran’s staunch ally. The damage to Iran’s capacity to supply and influence proxies in the region is significant, as Syria was an important geographical link that allowed Iran to move weapons and other supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Its loss now further weakens Hezbollah, whose powerful arsenal in southern Lebanon had put Iranian influence directly on the border of Israel. While Iran’s capacity to influence the region has taken a hit, it remains powerful, with a possible nuclear card ‘up its sleeve’. The fall also cost long-standing Syrian ally, Russia, who has now lost access to its Tartus naval base in Syria, an asset critical for Russia as it's the only naval for them hub on the Mediterranean Sea. With it Russia also lost one of the few airfields it can use to supply its operations in Africa. Both installations have been key to the Kremlin’s projection of strength on the world stage and its attempts to rebuild its Cold War-era influence. Russia was in a rush to evacuate its forces and fleet from both destinations. It is learnt that with the strategic area’s now under control of rebel fractions, Moscow is scrambling to establish contacts with Syrian rebels to export the possibility of gaining access again. 

Another factor which impacts the region and beyond is the massive arsenal of weaponry which Syrian forces had amassed over decades. With large stockpiles of advanced Surface to Air Missile systems, Anti-ship and ballistic missiles in Syria, regional powers like Israel and global powers like the United States wasted no time in carrying out ‘surgical’ strikes to destroy them to prevent them being proliferated amongst many actors, including the HTS and others. Impact of such weapon systems, some of which were used to attack commercial shipping in the Red Sea region have global implications and more regional ones for the Indian Ocean.

Further, if Syria descends into HTS rule, the risk of it becoming another failed State like Afghanistan is a strong possibility, and a realisation many regional and global actors would want to avoid. HTS’s Jolani, like some of the Taliban interim government’s members, continues to have a bounty worth tens of millions of dollars on his head, tagged by the United States. To compound issues, with the HTS-led victory in Damascus, other Islamist militant movements around the world may get emboldened, and the planet may see the kindling catch fire in many conflicts which had been managed or had been suppressed. As such, the international implications could be massive, if the situation is not managed well, and quickly.