• RW likely to prorogue Parliament after OSB; throne speech after 4 February Independence
• Range Bandara says RW will contest for presidency under UNP; RW remains non-committal
• SLPP split over Dhammika’s candidacy; Dhammika promises solutions to 10 pre-conditions
• Group in SLPP says Dhammika – President, Namal – PM; Dhammika to start work from H’tota
• Basil works from the US, draws line saying SLPP should not accept any new posts from RW
• Sajith in tight spot over Shan’s request for Ambalangoda; Sujeewa asked to balance Bandula Lal
• GL-Dilan join SJB and says rest of FPC will also join; FPC says undecided yet, seeks more clarity
• SLFP looks at reviving ‘betel leaf’ UPFA to form alliance, politburo to meet tomorrow to discuss
• JVP/NPP decides to go solo at polls with clear criteria on allies; AKD says it’s a ‘do-or-die game’

A new year usually dawns with fresh hope for a fresh start. However, this time around, the new year dawned last week with many anticipated challenges for President Ranil Wickremesinghe, his Government, and the people alike on the economic front due to the increase of the Value-Added Tax (VAT).

People woke up in the new year to learn of fuel and LP Gas price hikes and resultant price hikes as well as increases in prices of a host of other goods and services. Apart from the usual boiling of milk and partaking of milk rice and traditional sweetmeats in homes and offices, last Monday (1) saw almost every citizen in the country discuss the hardships that await the people this year and express doubts over the path taken by President Wickremesinghe and his Government to overcome the economic crisis.

The Government however maintains that people can be provided some form of relief in a few months after facing hardships at present. It is no secret that the President as well as his Government allies are in the process of preparing for impending elections this year and will therefore look at providing relief to the people closer to the announcement of polls. 

The President has also underscored that decisive actions will lead Sri Lanka to rapid economic growth this year. Despite facing criticism for these challenging decisions, he has emphasised that they have been undertaken in the best interest of the country. He has further expressed his hope for unity in the new year, urging collaboration among political parties to fulfil their collective responsibility in safeguarding the nation.

Meanwhile, Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe has said that inflation is to be maintained at 5% this year as it is one of the pivotal roles of the Central Bank.

State Minister of Finance Shehan Semasinghe has also expressed a similar stance: “The successful maintenance of inflation within single digits has been pivotal in fostering business confidence, especially considering the significant reduction from 70% in 2022 to an anticipated 5% in 2024.”

The Government expects to collect revenue amounting to Rs. 378 billion from the VAT hike in pursuit of targets stipulated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under its four-year programme with Sri Lanka.

Ceylon Chamber of Commerce (CCC) Chairman Duminda Hulangamuwa meanwhile has said that the Government will not be able to meet tax revenue targets in 2024 despite the VAT hike as reduction in consumption is expected, eventually leading to an economic contraction.

He had said during a television interview that VAT should have been kept at 15% while removing VAT exemptions as an 18% VAT was high and would reduce people’s consumption volumes and keep tax collection low.

“In these circumstances, huge growth in the economy cannot happen but we can bring some stability to the economy through these measures. If we can achieve some stability, we can control the macro fundamentals such as inflation and interest rates, then both foreign and local investors will see that the economy is stable and that they can invest again,” he had explained.

However, Hulangamuwa had noted that it would take two to three years for the return of investor confidence in Sri Lanka.

RW’s move

Amidst the myriad of economic issues faced by the country and its people, President Wickremesinghe seems to have assigned a separate set of work to political parties, with several announcements made by him on 2024 being an election year.

The first national-level election is expected to be the Presidential Election that is due to be announced towards the end of the second quarter. The General Election is expected to be the next national-level election. 

The Election Commission meanwhile has claimed that there is no possibility of not holding the Presidential Election, which is scheduled to be held this year, and that it must be held before 16 October as per the relevant provisions in the Constitution.

Addressing the media, Election Commission Chairman R.M.A.L. Rathnayake had said: “There is no way to postpone the Presidential Election. There is a clear date on or before which it should be held. We have requested the allocation of relevant funds and Rs. 10 billion has been allocated for this purpose. It will be given to us in due time and we will hold the election.”

It is in such a backdrop that there were some reports of Parliament being dissolved within the next few weeks, paving the way for the holding of General Elections prior to the April New Year.

However, it is learnt that Parliament will not be dissolved and that the House will instead be prorogued. Unconfirmed reports state that the House could be prorogued towards the end of this month until after Independence Day on 4 February, after which the President would deliver his throne speech.

It is learnt that the proposed Online Safety Bill (OSB), which is expected to be taken up in the House on 23 January, will be among the last pieces of legislation to be taken up in Parliament prior to the prorogation.

On the positive side, the prorogation will result in the now-defunct parliamentary Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE) and all other parliamentary committees being reconstituted.

Dissidents for RW

While all parties are engaged in their election preparation work, a group of dissidents of the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), who are currently seated in the Opposition side in Parliament, led by MPs Anura Priyadharshana Yapa and Nimal Lanza had last week hinted that the group would support Wickremesinghe’s candidacy at the next Presidential Election.

The dissidents’ group had launched its campaign work at its Head Office in Rajagiriya on Monday (1) at an event held to mark the dawn of the new year with key figures of the group such as Lanza, Yapa, and Piyankara Jayaratne in attendance.

“From today, the new alliance is actively starting its political operations. We will work as a strong, extensive group to support the President at the Presidential Election,” Lanza has said at the event. He has further noted that President Wickremesinghe was likely to hold Presidential Polls first, followed by Parliamentary, Provincial Council, and Local Government Elections.

According to Lanza, the group has initiated a dialogue with over 70 MPs presently functioning as independents in the Government and Opposition sides to form the proposed new alliance. “We will be able to form the broadest alliance with the highest number of MPs and parties,” he has claimed. However, Lanza had clearly stated that the proposed new alliance would not stand with the SLPP.

Yapa meanwhile had told the gathering that they were at a decisive juncture and had stressed on the need to review their political path in order to fulfil the group’s political ideology.

RW silent

Despite a group of SLPP dissidents expressing their intentions of supporting President Wickremesinghe at the next Presidential Polls, Wickremesinghe is yet to officially announce his decision to contest.

Although the President has refrained from making any comment about his possible candidacy, United National Party (UNP) General Secretary Palitha Range Bandara has said that Wickremesinghe will definitely contest.

Range Bandara has said that Wickremesinghe is among the leaders in the country who has international recognition and experience and makes decisions without fear or suspicion. The UNP General Secretary has further stated that Wickremesinghe’s decisions have enabled the national economy to record a higher revenue after 25 years.

The UNP meanwhile has also stated that the party is in the process of holding discussions with political parties and individuals in order to form a broad political alliance.

Vajira thanks SLPP

While Wickremesinghe is being pushed by a group of UNP seniors to contest, UNP Chairman MP Vajira Abeywardena has said that the UNP is grateful to the SLPP for not bowing down to the international community during the Aragalaya protest movement last year and sending a strong message to the world.

“The SLPP only bowed down to the people of Sri Lanka during the Aragalaya. It did not bow to the international community. What the SLPP told the world during the Aragalaya was that it had managed to win the war in 2009 and now it would hand over the reins to Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is the only person capable of resolving the economic crisis. We are grateful to the SLPP for this step,” Abeywardena had said at a media briefing.

Dhammika says yes

Meanwhile, businessman Dhammika Perera, who is one of the frontrunners in the SLPP list of candidates for the Presidential Election, last week said that he was prepared to contest.

He had said that while he was preparing to become a candidate, the SLPP had laid down 10 pre-conditions to become the party’s candidate and that he was in the process of addressing them. He had observed that the SLPP was currently the largest political party in the country. 

According to Perera, he is prepared to present solutions to the ongoing issues since he possesses only solutions. He had further noted that he was preparing a programme to address the issues faced by the country since he would have to deliver his promises within five years, which meant he had 9,600 hours. “Five years is actually 9,600 hours; I need to plan how to complete these tasks within these 9,600 hours, which I am currently doing,” he has said.

“The last date for the 2024 Presidential Election is 12 October; we have 286 days left. I’m currently preparing myself to meet the SLPP’s conditions. Once that is done, it will announce who the presidential candidate from the party is,” he has further said.

Perera has also expressed confidence in salvaging the country from the ongoing economic crisis, saying that there is no need to worry since it is an achievable goal. “I’m preparing the solutions and it is up to the party (SLPP) to announce whether I am its candidate,” Perera has added.

Starting from Hambantota

It is no secret that Perera is also facing opposition within the SLPP, with a group of seniors feeling that he will not be the best choice for the party.

SLPP Founder and former National Organiser Basil Rajapaksa and his loyalists are supporting Perera’s candidacy, while SLPP Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR) and a larger group of the SLPP feel the party should field a candidate with a political background. 

Interestingly, Perera has also shown that he is not prepared to back down from his stance. It is learnt that Perera is looking at taking his battle for the SLPP’s candidacy into Rajapaksa territory – Hambantota. Perera, who has been opening computer laboratories and other learning facilities around the country, is to open a similar facility this coming week in Tissamaharama in Hambantota. It is also learnt that this event in Hambantota is to be held on a grander scale than other similar events held so far.

Not MR

With growing interest over the SLPP’s presidential candidate, there have been some reports that SLPP Leader MR’s son MP Namal Rajapaksa is also being considered as the SLPP’s next presidential candidate.

Namal however says that the party will only announce its candidate when the Presidential Election is announced. He has further noted that there has been no final decision yet on whether the SLPP’s presidential candidate will be a businessman, a youth member, or any other.

It is in such a backdrop that some sections of the SLPP have started to promote the concept of ‘Perera for presidency and Namal for prime minister’. 

Meanwhile, there is confirmation on who will not be contesting as the SLPP’s candidate. Last week, MR, when asked by the media who would be contesting as the SLPP candidate at the Presidential Election, laughed and said that while there was no decision yet, he was not going to be the candidate.

Talking to minorities

Meanwhile, Perera has commenced discussions with the Tamil and Muslim political parties in the country in a bid to secure their support for his candidacy. 

It is learnt that Perera has already held discussions with two Tamil parties and one Muslim political party. However, he has noted that while the discussions had ended on a satisfactory note, he could not immediately speak on the outcome.

Basil in action

The SLPP meanwhile is continuing with its campaign related work with Basil, who is currently in the US enjoying time with his family, making daily calls and holding meetings with party activists.

The SLPP’s Basil loyalists continue to keep him abreast of the goings-on in the party and the political scene. Meanwhile, Basil has made several key decisions with regard to the SLPP and the political decisions the party should make in the coming months. 

Basil had told his confidantes that the SLPP should not accept any posts or portfolios that could be offered by President Wickremesinghe in the coming months. With talk of an impending Cabinet reshuffle, the President is expected to appoint some SLPPers to new portfolios as well.

However, Basil has noted that the SLPP should take a firm decision not to accept any new portfolios since Wickremesinghe had ignored the party’s request for more portfolios soon after assuming office. He has further explained that the SLPP would have to make some tough political decisions around April and that it was best for the SLPP to therefore refrain from accepting new positions in the Wickremesinghe Government. 

GL-Dilan for Sajith

While the ruling SLPP and the President’s UNP are engaged in internal discourses over the party’s respective candidate at the next Presidential Election, the main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) is actively engaged in forming its political alliance.

It is in such a backdrop that a statement that SJB and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa would be the presidential candidate of the Samagi Jana Sandhanaya was made by none other than several dissidents of the SLPP currently seated in the parliamentary Opposition.

The announcement was made by SLPP dissident Freedom People’s Congress (FPC) member MP Dilan Perera during a press conference, where Perera along with fellow FPC member Prof. G.L Peiris voiced their support for Premadasa.

According to Perera, the FPC is undivided in working together with the SJB to form a broad alliance. “If the current Government is to be ousted, the entire Opposition must come together. Premadasa is the common candidate. The SJB is the main force behind the coalition being formed. He is not only the common candidate of the alliance but is also the common candidate of the entire Opposition bloc,” Perera had claimed. 

Peiris had told the media that a broader programme was needed in 2024 to protect Sri Lankans. He had added that the FPC was supporting the SJB at this juncture for a common aim. When questioned about the remaining FPC members, Peiris had admitted that FPC Leader Dullas Alahapperuma was yet to extend support to Premadasa.

Dullas undecided

Despite the decision by Peiris and Perera to join the SJB, the FPC is yet undecided on when to form the proposed political alliance with the SJB and is seeking clarity on the SJB’s policies that it can agree with and jointly support.

Peiris and Perera on Monday (1) announced that they would work to form a massive political alliance with the help of several Opposition parties and political groups in light of the Presidential Election. However, the FPC maintains that the views expressed by Peiris and Perera are not the party’s official view but their personal opinions. 

The FPC, it is learnt, is yet to decide on a presidential candidate and on forming an alliance with the SJB and the group has been holding discussions with the SJB in order to seek clarity regarding the SJB’s policies.

SJB’s criteria

The SJB meanwhile has said that it will never form any alliance with or obtain the support of those who are directly responsible for the current economic crisis.

SJB MP Eran Wickramaratne has said at a press conference on Wednesday (3) that no one who has been named as a perpetrator and supporter of the economic crisis will be welcomed to the party. He has explained that the SJB has made a collective policy decision not to seek the support of the “allegedly” corrupt politicians refused by the people.

Both Wickramaratne and Dr. Harsha de Silva, who were both at the press conference, have said that the SJB will only join hands with those who have a people’s mandate with no allegations of corruption and misconduct. De Silva has noted that anyone who wants to be a member of the SJB should have clean hands and must adhere to the policies and principles of the party. He said that the SJB has already included its anti-corruption measures in the party’s manifesto, which is called ‘The Blueprint’.

It is in such a backdrop that the SJB launched a campaign to get individuals from other political parties into the fold on a scattered basis. So far members of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), and Freedom People’s Congress have joined the SJB.

SLFP breaks

Meanwhile, SLFP Senior Vice President, MP Shan Wijayalal de Silva on Monday (1) defected from the SLFP to join the SJB, with his party membership being handed over by Opposition Leader Premadasa. De Silva was also appointed as the SJB’s Chief Organiser for the Ambalangoda electorate.

De Silva’s decision to join the SJB was only known by some politicians, including members of the SLFP, about two days prior to the official announcement. It is learnt that de Silva’s defection from the SLFP had happened following a two-day operation initiated by a few Premadasa loyalists. Premadasa had also held two one-to-one meetings with de Silva prior to the 1st morning political move.

De Silva was elected as an MP during the last General Election representing the SLPP. A former Chief Minister of the Southern Province and Governor of the Eastern Province, he is a senior member of the SLFP.

Meanwhile, the SLFP has appointed former MR confidante MP Sajin de Vass Gunawardena as the party’s organiser for the Ambalangoda electorate.

Marikkar’s new year surprise

While de Silva’s defection to the SJB was not known by many, including a majority of SJB members, news of the political move first came to light when Premadasa visited SJB MP S.M. Marikkar’s office to attend the new year event.

Prior to attending the new year event at the Opposition Leader’s Office, Premadasa had attended the event at Marikkar’s office. Interestingly, Premadasa had attended the event with de Silva, who had accompanied Premadasa to the event in his vehicle.

A surprised Marikkar had welcomed Premadasa and de Silva to his office to celebrate the new year.

Balancing Bandula Lal

One of de Silva’s main requests to join the SJB was for him to be appointed as the organiser of the Ambalangoda electorate.

De Silva’s request for the Ambalangoda electorate had put Premadasa in a difficult spot as the electorate was held by an active SJB member, Bandula Lal Bandarigoda. Premadasa had then assigned the task of discussing the matter of the Ambalangoda electorate with Bandarigoda to one of his (Premadasa’s) loyalists, Sujeewa Senasinghe.

Senasinghe had then met with Bandarigoda and discussed the current political situation in the country and the financial difficulties Bandarigoda would face during election campaigns. Following a lengthy discussion, Bandarigoda had agreed to move out as the SJB’s Ambalangoda electoral organiser, paving the way for Premadasa to hand it over to de Silva.

However, when Senasinghe had informed Premadasa of Bandarigoda’s agreement to move out of the post, Premadasa had spoken to Bandarigoda and promised him a parliamentary National List slot.

Once de Silva’s position in the SJB was cleared, Premadasa had been informed that a former minister of the UPFA, Dayasritha Tissera, was also interested in joining the SJB and that he wanted the organiser post of the Nattandiya electorate. Tissera also joined the SJB last week after reaching an agreement with Premadasa.

Sajith says no

Meanwhile, leaders of several minority parties affiliated to the SJB had recently met with President Wickremesinghe for a discussion based on an invitation from the latter.

Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) Leader Rauff Hakeem, All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) Leader Rishad Bathiudeen, and Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA) Co-Leaders Mano Ganesan and Palani Digambaram were the party leaders invited for the meeting.

However, prior to the meeting, the SJB party leaders had informed Opposition Leader Premadasa that they had been invited for a meeting with the President. Premadasa had said it was good to meet with the President and hear what he had to say.

Following the discussion, the party leaders had asked Premadasa if he would be receptive if he were to be offered the post of prime minister in a Wickremesinghe government. Premadasa, it is learnt, had reiterated that he would not join Wickremesinghe and that anyone in the SJB who wished to join the Wickremesinghe camp was free to do so.

Back to betel leaf

While all parties are gearing up for elections this year, the SLFP is also looking at forming an alliance to contest polls. It is learnt that the SLFP is once again looking at reactivating the UPFA under the ‘betel leaf’ symbol to form an alliance to contest the upcoming national-level elections this year.

It is also learnt that a group of SLFPers had requested Party Leader, former President Maithripala Sirisena to reactivate the UPFA in order to open the path for individuals who had defected from the SLFP to other political parties, including the ruling SLPP, to return to the fold without much hesitation.

Several former SLFPers who had joined the SLPP and have now defected have been engaged in discussions with the SLFP to explore possibilities of contesting as an alliance at the next General Election. A final decision on the political alliance is expected to be taken on Monday (8) when the party’s politburo is expected to meet.

Dayasiri’s announcement

The SLFP meanwhile is showing cracks, with one of its members expressing interest in contesting at the Presidential Election, while SLFP Leader Sirisena had also stated recently that he was prepared to contest if the party decided so.

Former General Secretary of the SLFP MP Dayasiri Jayasekara recently expressed his interest in contesting as a common candidate at the upcoming Presidential Election. Jayasekara had expressed the opinion that Party Leader Sirisena would not be successful in the polls if he chose to contest for the presidency.

He had further explained that given SLPP Leader MR’s ineligibility to run for president, there was a necessity for a common candidate to represent both the SLPP and SLFP. Jayasekara had also refuted rumours that he would cross over to the SJB and had noted that he had no intention of joining the Opposition party.

Jayasekara’s relationship with the SLFP has been sour after he was removed from the post of General Secretary and suspended from party membership last September. His Kurunegala District leadership has also been suspended. However, Jayasekara has insisted that he continues to be a member of the party. It was reported at the time that Jayasekara’s removal was prompted by suspicions that he was attempting to take over the leadership of the party.

Appointment for CBK

Meanwhile, the SLFP is reportedly looking at appointing former SLFP Leader, former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga (CBK) to a position in the party. However, there have been contradictory reports on the position that could be offered.

Some reports state that CBK could be offered a powerful position while other reports indicate that she would not be offered a powerful position given Sirisena’s suspicions about CBK’s political activities.

Going solo

Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and National People’s Power (NPP) Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake has meanwhile stated that they would welcome any individual with an unblemished political practice, irrespective of their current political affiliations, to their party, but that there is no preparation to form alliances with other political groups or parties.

Dissanayake has also noted that the upcoming elections will create the most intense battle ever in the Sri Lankan political arena and would be a ‘do-or-die game.’ Dissanayake has said during a seminar on Tuesday (2) that the political camps that are in the making and the divisions being created are not ordinary in nature.

Dissanayake has added that if the NPP loses the political battle this time, the country and the people will be led into further misery.