• China’s two-year debt moratorium for SL ends in April; now extended for six years, says Govt.
• Sagala goes to India to discuss delayed Indian investment projects in Lanka; Dinesh visits China
• No delay in General Elections despite electoral system amendments, says Govt.; Prez Polls on time
• SLPP looks at possibility of not fielding a candidate at Prez Polls; Namal has more time, says Basil
• Party needs General Elections first, says Basil; Prasanna takes a swipe, says country before party
• SLPP split widens over support for RW; clash between Kanchana and Eranda after Ex-Co meeting
• RW tells Basil of the need to be the common candidate of a broad alliance under a common symbol
• MR says people angry with Govt.; SLPP to put all weight behind May Day rally at Campbell Park
• Sajith to lead SJB alliance to be launched on Friday; SLPP dissidents also expected to participate
• Maithri summons SLFPers, removes Mahinda, Duminda, Lasantha; Wijeyadasa addresses SLFPers
• Karuna’s political party to support RW; new movement ‘Amman Force’ formed for former rebels

While a key national-level election approaches in six months, with the country still facing considerable downside risks, the Ranil Wickremesinghe Government is engaged in balancing acts on multiple fronts, which include political, economical, and geopolitical complexities.

Oxford Economics, a UK-based advisory firm, has recently stated that Sri Lanka’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is about 25% below the pre-pandemic trend as the country’s economy remains in a bad state with downside risk despite recent improvements.

According to its latest forecast on Sri Lanka, although macroeconomic stabilisation is starting to bear fruit, a healthy dose of caution is still warranted as the economy remains in a bad state.

“While the economy is improving gradually, it remains in a bad state. The GDP is about 25% below its pre-pandemic trend and downside risks to the outlook remain high,” Oxford Economics has stated.

It has further stated that meeting the terms of the ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, especially on governance reforms and fiscal consolidation, will be challenging while the Presidential Election planned in the fourth quarter of 2024 also raises risks from the political side.

However, it has noted that economic stabilisation appears to be increasingly flowing through to a pick-up in economic activity as tourism continues to rebound and buoy services activity, while easing shortages and renewed confidence help to attract back dissuaded travellers.

However, Oxford Economics expects Sri Lanka’s GDP to reach pre-pandemic levels by 2025 as well as 1.5% economic growth in 2024.

Be that as it may, the Wickremesinghe Government is once again in the midst of a complex situation in balancing India and China to finalise the country’s bilateral debt restructuring programme.

While India played a key role in assisting Sri Lanka in securing the ongoing IMF programme while also playing a lead role in the Paris Club Official Creditor Committee (OCC) to reach an agreement on the country’s debt restructuring programme, China also figures prominently in Sri Lanka’s debt treatment programme.

The Wickremesinghe Government has, through the past months, tried to strike a balance between its relations with India and China. However, it is no secret that China has been displeased with Sri Lanka’s decision to announce a one-year moratorium for foreign vessels entering Sri Lankan waters for research studies when a Chinese vessel had sought permission to visit the country for such a purpose in January this year.

China blamed India for putting pressure on Sri Lanka to act in such a manner while expressing disappointment in the Sri Lankan Government. Since then, the Chinese have maintained an uneasy silence on Sri Lanka.

The Wickremesinghe Government, meanwhile, is once again at the mercy of India and China to finalise the bilateral debt treatment programme that was earlier due to be completed by end-March.

Sagala in India

It is in such a backdrop that President’s Chief of Staff and National Security Advisor Sagala Ratnayaka undertook a brief 48-hour official visit to India on Wednesday (27) and Thursday (28).

He had met Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra among other key officials during his brief visit to New Delhi.

Ratnayaka’s visit was aimed at discussing all Indian projects – ongoing and proposed – in Sri Lanka. The visit comes prior to India’s General Election in order to address issues that are delaying Indian projects in Sri Lanka.

It is evident that the Indian Government is also becoming restless about the delays in Indian projects in Sri Lanka, especially since India is entering election mode in April.

It has also not been easy for the Sri Lankan Government to move ahead with some Indian projects, such as Adani’s renewable energy generation project and the hybrid power projects in islands off Jaffna, given opposition being raised by various quarters. India believes that China is behind some of these protest campaigns while the Sri Lankan Government is looking at staving off a stand-off between the Indians and the Chinese on Sri Lankan soil.

PM in China

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s complex role in balancing geopolitics has once again been put to the test as the two-year moratorium on its debt granted by the Export-Import Bank of China (China Exim Bank) comes to an end this April.

The letter that was sent to the Sri Lankan Government by China Exim Bank in January 2023 had stated that it was going to provide “an extension on the debt service due in 2022 and 2023 as an immediate contingency measure” based on Sri Lanka’s request.

“You will not have to repay the principal and interest due of the bank’s loans during the above-mentioned period,” the letter had noted. Sri Lanka owes Chinese lenders a total of $ 7.4 billion.

However, a highly-placed Government source noted that the Chinese had been cordial with Sri Lanka and that they too had agreed in principle to the OCC position on a six-year debt moratorium for Sri Lanka. “The two-year debt moratorium coming to an end will therefore not be an issue,” the source said.

Last week also saw Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena embark on a five-day official visit to China on Monday (25) at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang. The visit was scheduled to be completed yesterday (30). The Sri Lankan delegation also included State Finance Minister Shehan Semasinghe.

Gunawardena met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li, and National People’s Congress Standing Committee Chairman Zhao Leji.

During the Prime Minister’s visit, some nine agreements were also signed with China to further ties between the two countries. Prime Minister’s Secretary Anura Dissanayake had signed the agreements on behalf of Sri Lanka.

The meeting between Gunawardena and Chinese President Xi saw both countries agreeing to continue to act under conditions of friendship, peace, mutual respect, and the fivefold principle in international affairs that do not interfere in the internal affairs of a country. It was emphasised that bilateral relations should be based on mutual respect and mutual productivity between the countries and acting according to that policy would set a good example for both countries.

Polls conundrum

On the local political front, there has been much talk about when the Presidential Election will be held. However, the Election Commission (EC) last week assured that the Presidential Election would be held within the stipulated time, during the period between 17 September and 17 October this year. The declaration of the date of the Presidential Polls and the acceptance of nominations are to be announced by the commission by late July or early August.

Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) meanwhile has claimed that his party will not allow the Government to implement the proposed amendments to the parliamentary electoral system before the Presidential Polls.

AKD has said during his recent visit to Canada that Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) theoretician Basil Rajapaksa and his team are now urging the holding of Parliamentary Elections before the Presidential Election as they believe that they will be unable to secure at least some parliamentary seats if Presidential Polls come first.

The JVP/NPP has further noted that talks about holding Parliamentary Elections before the Presidential Election are only an attempt to suppress the issues faced by the people.

Meanwhile, dissident Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) MP Patali Champika Ranawaka has called on President Wickremesinghe to explain his priority – whether it is to revive the economy by restructuring debt by June or to see that the Rajapaksas are elected to Parliament once again.

Ranawaka has said during a public meeting that the five Rajapaksas in politics are trying to prevent a Parliamentary Election that will see no Rajapaksas returning to the House.

Ranawaka had further noted that if the President holds Parliamentary Elections prior to the Presidential Election, it would be to accommodate the Rajapaksas’ wish of returning to Parliament.

No delay

Meanwhile, Justice Minister Dr. Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe had noted that the proposed amendments to the Parliamentary Elections Act would not delay the elections next year.

He had noted that none of the leaders elected to the presidency since 1994 had fulfilled the promises made by them to combat corruption and reform the electoral system.

The Minister had noted that President Wickremesinghe had already submitted amendments aimed at tackling corruption and implementing a proportional election system. “An Election Amendment Bill has recently been submitted to Parliament. Reflecting on historical context, in 1994, Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunga ran as a presidential candidate and made three significant election promises. These included abolishing the executive presidential system, combating corruption, and abolishing the proportional voting system. Additionally, the bill suggests the appointment of councillors responsible for specific divisions. Despite several amendments to the Constitution over time, no changes have been made to alter the electoral system as of yet,” the Minister had explained during a news briefing last week.

No SLPP candidate

With the ongoing tug-of-war between President Wickremesinghe and the ruling SLPP over which election should be held first, SLPP theoretician Basil and his loyalists have once again discussed the party’s stance during a Presidential Election.

It is learnt that there had been a discussion among a group of senior SLPPers on the urgent need to prevent division in the party over supporting President Wickremesinghe at the next Presidential Election or fielding its own candidate. The foundation for this discussion had taken place during the recent SLPP parliamentary group meeting convened by Basil.

Basil and his loyalists had also discussed the option of not fielding an SLPP candidate at the Presidential Election and instead extending the party’s support unofficially to President Wickremesinghe in order to hold the party base intact.

A group of senior SLPPers led by Chief Government Whip Minister Prasanna Ranatunga and several other SLPP ministers in the Government have already made public statements extending support to Wickremesinghe at the Presidential Election. The SLPP’s stance on the Presidential Election will therefore be a make-or-break point for the party.

It is also learnt that Basil had meanwhile urged several confidants of SLPP MP Namal Rajapaksa to inform him of the need to be mindful of the fact that he [Namal] had several more years at hand before contesting a Presidential Election.

Basil’s message to Namal is a clear indication that the latter will not come forward to contest the Presidential Election this time around.

However, the issue was discussed at length at the SLPP Executive Committee meeting held on Wednesday (27).

Country, not party, first

The SLPP convened a meeting of its Executive Committee at SLPP Leader, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s (MR) official residence at Wijerama Mawatha in Colombo 7.

During the meeting, Basil had explained to the Executive Committee members that his personal opinion was that Parliamentary Elections should be held prior to the Presidential Election to ensure the best chances for the party and that he had conveyed his opinion to President Wickremesinghe. He had asked the Executive Committee members to decide which election they preferred being held first.

While there is a split within the SLPP over which election should be held first, there’s another split on whether the SLPP should field its own candidate or support President Wickremesinghe.

Ranatunga meanwhile had noted that the SLPP did not have a suitable candidate to field at the Presidential Election and that Namal had more time to contest at a future Presidential Election.

He had noted that the Presidential Election should be held first since a stable government could not be set up if a Parliamentary Election was held at the present juncture.

Ranatunga, who has publicly expressed support for President Wickremesinghe, had said after the Executive Committee meeting that he [Wickremesinghe] should win at the next Presidential Election in order to get the country’s economy back on track.

In what seems like a swipe at Basil, Ranatunga had further noted: “Decisions should be taken thinking of the country. It should be the country first and the party second. If we think of the country, we should then hold the Presidential Election and that person should be given the government to govern the country.”

Ranatunga’s statement is a clear contradiction of Basil’s stance of looking first at the best option for the SLPP as well as the split within the party.

Basil’s proposal to RW

Meanwhile, it is reliably learnt that the topic of the SLPP extending support to President Wickremesinghe at the upcoming Presidential Election had been discussed during a second meeting held between Basil and Wickremesinghe a few weeks back at the latter’s official residence in Colombo.

It is further learnt that when Basil had asked the President if he was prepared to become the presidential candidate of the SLPP, Wickremesinghe had noted that he expected to become the candidate of a broad political alliance and not a candidate of just the United National Party (UNP) and the SLPP. In other words, Wickremesinghe had expressed his desire of being a common candidate at the polls.

When Basil had expressed displeasure over the inclusion of SLPP dissidents in the alliance, Wickremesinghe had reiterated that all political forces needed to unite to ensure victory.

RW says no

One of the key proposals presented by Basil to Wickremesinghe that had been turned down by the latter had been the proposal that Wickremesinghe and his alliance for the Presidential Election contest under the SLPP’s ‘flower bud’ symbol.

It is learnt that Wickremesinghe had once again explained to Basil the need for a broader political consensus in order to win at the polls and that the SLPP’s support alone could not ensure victory. “We have to look at getting as many forces together under one alliance without imposing party limits. That means everyone should be comfortable with the symbol that will represent their candidate at the polls,” the President had explained.

Wickremesinghe, while saying no to the use of the ‘flower bud’ as his electoral symbol at the Presidential Election, had noted that there was time to make a final decision on the symbol.

At this point, Basil had said that in the event the SLPP did not field a candidate at the next Presidential Election, the party could look at extending its unofficial support to Wickremesinghe.

A common symbol

Wickremesinghe, it is learnt, is focused on contesting under a broad political alliance under a common symbol.

However, a final decision has not been made yet on the common symbol that Wickremesinghe will take on. Wickremesinghe loyalists are currently in the process of exploring the political symbols that could be adopted for the presidential campaign.

It is learnt that so far, UNP senior Ravi Karunanayake has proposed the use of the ‘swan’ symbol of a party of his [Karunanayake’s] loyalists – the National Democratic Front (NDF) – which was used by former President Maithripala Sirisena at the 2015 Presidential Election when he contested as the common candidate. Minister Tiran Alles, it is learnt, has also proposed the use of his political party – the United People’s Party (UPP) – as the alliance of the common presidential candidate.

Reining in errant MPs

Meanwhile, a group of 12 senior SLPPers had proposed to the party leadership that SLPP MPs who did not abide by the party’s policies and decisions should be reined in and not be given nominations at the next General Election.

These seniors had said that those who disagreed with the party stance and policies on issues should be allowed to contest the election from another party of their choice.

Disciplinary committees

Taking into consideration the growing divisions within the SLPP, the party Executive Committee had also appointed two disciplinary committees at last week’s meeting. 

One committee is to look into disciplinary issues while the other has been tasked with resolving internal party conflicts. A seven-member committee had been appointed to address disciplinary issues and a six-member committee had been set up to resolve internal conflicts.

Late State Minister Sanath Nishantha’s wife Chamari Perera is also among the lawyers appointed to the disciplinary committee. The other members of the committee are Thushari Sooriyarachchi, Athula de Silva, and Sampath Athukorala. The committee is headed by President’s Counsels (PCs) Razeek Zarook and W. Dayaratne.

The second committee looking into resolving internal party issues consists of senior SLPPers Chamal Rajapaksa, Johnston Fernando, S.B. Dissanayake, C.B. Dissanayake, Rohitha Abeygunawardena, and Manjula Dissanayake.

Namal’s new role

A key appointment was also made to the party’s office bearers during the meeting.

Namal’s name was proposed for the post of SLPP National Organiser by Basil loyalist Jayantha Ketagoda and the proposal was unanimously approved.

Accordingly, Namal was appointed to the post, which fell vacant when the party’s founder Basil decided to move out of the position last year.

Clash after meeting

However, once the SLPP’s Executive Committee meeting had concluded, there had been a clash between two SLPPers including a Cabinet Minister. 

The incident had taken place when the SLPP’s Eranda Ginige had referred to SLPP MP and Minister Kanchana Wijesekera as one of “Ranil’s children”. Ginige had earlier made critical remarks about several young SLPP ministers in the Government, including Wijesekera, saying that they were akin to sons of Wickremesinghe rather than being sons of their own fathers.

Hearing Ginige’s snide remark, Wijesekera had held him by his shirt and asked: “What did you say?” Others who were around the two had immediately intervened and pulled them aside.

Campbell Park rally

The SLPP meanwhile has decided to focus all its energy on holding a successful May Day rally. It is learnt that the party is looking at holding the rally at Campbell Park in Borella.

SLPP MP Mahindananda Aluthgamage made a public statement last week that the party’s May Day rally at Campbell Park would be an indication of the SLPP’s position among the people.

MR unhappy

It is against such a backdrop that SLPP Leader MR has noted the growing public anger towards the Wickremesinghe Government.

MR had said that his party, the SLPP, was not very happy with the Government and that the public had also been expressing anger towards the administration.

The SLPP Leader had also said that his party would contest the next election and win.

SB’s survey

Amidst talk of elections this year, there has been much discussion about various opinion polls that have been carried out by several organisations to determine the popularity of the main political parties at grassroots levels.

It is against this backdrop that SLPP MP S.B. Dissanayake had recently made a statement about the outcome of yet another survey conducted on political parties.

He had told the media that the SJB, led by Premadasa, was currently leading the survey and that the SLPP, which was at nearly zero, was gaining ground fast and nearing the SJB.

According to Dissanayake, the JVP/NPP, which was at around 25%, is now losing its popularity at grassroots level.

SJB alliance

The main Opposition SJB meanwhile is expected to launch the broad political alliance that has been in the making under Opposition and SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa on Friday (5 April).

The signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) is to be held at an event that will be chaired by Premadasa. Many other political party leaders, especially those already in the SJB alliance, are to attend the event. 

SJB sources also noted that several SLPP dissidents would also attend the launch event.

Karuna’s new move

Meanwhile, one-time colonel of the LTTE, Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan a.k.a. Karuna Amman has recently launched a new movement with the aim of supporting former LTTE cadres while also declaring support for President Wickremesinghe.

One-time Deputy Minister Muralitharan, who is also the Leader of the Tamil United Freedom Front (TUFF), has said that his political movement will support Wickremesinghe.

The new force formed by Muralitharan, named ‘Amman Force,’ is aimed at assisting former LTTE cadres.

Muralitharan is also a former Vice President of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). 

Sirisena summons SLFPers

Meanwhile, SLFP Leader and former President Maithripala Sirisena summoned all key members of the party at national and regional levels to the SLFP Headquarters in Colombo for a meeting yesterday (30) on the upcoming elections.

The party’s Central and Executive Committees, constituency and district organisers, other regional organisers, and all officials of organisations affiliated to the party had been called for this special meeting. It is learnt that the attendance of all relevant members had been made mandatory.

Sirisena, who had reconciled with the SLFP MPs who had joined/supported the Wickremesinghe Government, yesterday moved to remove them from key party positions.

SLFP MP Duminda Dissanayake was removed from the post of National Organiser, State Minister Lasantha Alagiyawanna was removed from the post of Treasurer, and Minister Mahinda Amaraweera was removed from the post of Senior Vice President of the party by its Executive Committee at the meeting.

K.P. Gunawardena was appointed as National Organiser, Hector Bethmage as Treasurer, and Sarath Ekanayake as Senior Vice President of the party.

Following these developments, Amaraweera said that he, Dissanayake, and Alagiyawanna would take legal action against their removal from the posts.

Wijeyadasa at SLFP meet

It is learnt that Justice Minister Dr. Rajapakshe had attended yesterday’s key SLFP meeting at the party Headquarters.

Rajapakshe had also addressed the gathering at the end of the meeting. It is also learnt that he had expressed his desire to join the SLFP-led alliance and had also said that all forces had joined together to elect President Wickremesinghe in order to salvage the country from the crisis it faced.

Wimal’s other alliance

The Uttara Lanka Sabhagaya led by SLPP dissident MPs Wimal Weerawansa and Udaya Gammanpila last week held a public rally in Maharagama, where it stated that the ‘third force’ in the country would be formed through a new alliance. The formation of the new alliance is also to mark the second anniversary of the Uttara Lanka Sabhagaya.

It is learnt that this new alliance will be launched on 5 April at the National Youth Services Council in Maharagama. The alliance is to also focus on joining SLPP dissidents who are not in favour of extending support to President Wickremesinghe, the SJB, or the JVP/NPP. Hence the leaders of the new alliance expect to build it as a third force on the political platform.

During the meeting, Gammanpila called on former General Secretary of the SLFP Dayasiri Jayasekara to start preparing to take over the party leadership since incumbent Party Leader Sirisena was on his way to Welikada [Prison].

Many SLPP dissident MPs, including Jayasekara and Dullas Alahapperuma, also attended the meeting.

Dayasiri for Prez Polls

Jayasekara meanwhile says he is prepared to contest as a presidential candidate if requested. 

He had said during a recent television interview that he was well received by all communities in the country and was better placed to serve everyone. 

Jayasekara had further noted that he was in an amicable position with all political parties as well, including the Opposition SJB and the UNP. “I have no animosity with any party or community. I am a person who loves everyone. If I am given the opportunity, I will definitely not only perform, but I will win the election,” he had added.

Dayasiri’s brother with AKD

However, Jayasekara’s brother Kithsiri Jayasekara had extended his support to AKD after attending the latter’s public meeting in Toronto, Canada last week.

A large number of Sri Lankans domiciled in Canada were seen attending AKD’s public meetings in Toronto and Vancouver.

Seeking costs

Meanwhile, the ruling SLPP is reportedly looking at the possibility of moving a resolution in Parliament to claim the expenditure incurred for the three-day debate on the no-faith motion which was brought against Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena.

SLPP MP and State Minister Chamara Sampath Dasanayake has recently stated that the Government was looking at bringing a resolution towards this end during the next parliamentary sessions, due this week.

“A large sum has been wasted for the three-day debate on the no-faith motion against the Speaker and we are planning to claim these funds from the Opposition,” he had said. “The no-faith motion brought against the Speaker was a useless exercise.”

The Speaker, who had made a special statement after the debate on the no-faith motion, announced that the three-day debate had cost the House Rs. 45 million.

Prasanna wants a probe

Meanwhile, Minister Ranatunga has called for a fresh probe based on the statement made by Speaker Abeywardena in Parliament after the defeat of his no-faith motion.

Ranatunga had said that following Abeywardena’s revelation of the involvement of certain foreign forces in the people’s protests, there needed to be a fresh probe into the incidents that had taken place between 9 and 10 May 2022 as well as between 9 and 14 July 2022.

The Minister had further noted that he had lodged a complaint with the Human Rights Commission of Sri Lanka on the coordinated attacks carried out against a select group of people in May 2022 along with CCTV footage, but that there had been very slow progress in the commission’s inquiry. Ranatunga had added that he had appeared before the commission on two occasions over the probe.

The book by MP Weerawansa on the ‘Aragalaya’ people’s protest had also referred to the involvement of members of the diplomatic community following the ouster of then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.