- Govt. likely to consider ‘Defence Review 2030’ report with amendments based on priorities
- Changes of armed forces organisation likely with ‘rightsizing’: Thuyacontha
- Govt. to draft plan on introducing new tech and modernisation for armed forces
‘National security’ and ‘the defence of the nation’ are once again in the public spotlight due to the recent crime spree and with the allocation for the Ministry of Defence being discussed in Parliament.
Following a speech by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in Parliament as the Minister of Defence, it is apparent that the Government will move forward with the reduction or ‘rightsizing’ of the armed forces by 2030 with some changes based on the National People’s Power (NPP) Government’s policy framework.
Like the administration before him, Dissnayake, while announcing the plan for personnel reduction, vowed to modernise the armed forces and provide them with new technology and kits. He also pointed out that the aircraft and vessel fleets of the Navy and Air Force were ageing and would be modernised.
The previous Government announced in May 2023 that the armed forces would be ‘rightsized’ to a strength of 100,000 personnel for the Sri Lanka Army (SLA), 30,000 for the Navy, and 20,000 for the Air Force.
President Dissanayake told Parliament last month (28 February) that the force structure would be reduced to 100,000 for the Army, 40,000 for the Navy, and 18,000 for the Air Force, respectively, by 2030. This was to be done in accordance with the ‘Defence Review 2030,’ a comprehensive study conducted by a group of retired officers which was handed over to former President Ranil Wickremesinghe shortly before the Presidential Election last year.
A significant portion of the reduction in personnel by 2030 will happen by natural attrition, where many members of the armed forces who complete their 22 years of service opt to retire from their respective branches.
Sri Lanka carried out a massive recruitment drive during the 2005-2008 period to enable multiple offensive operations which led to the conclusion of the conflict in May 2009, when the LTTE terrorist organisation was militarily defeated. It seems that the Government plans not to replace many of the vacancies which will be left open when the bulk of those who joined the war effort in 2005-2008 leave the services during the 2025-2030 period.
Budget allocation for 2025
The NPP Government in its Budget for this year announced a defence budget of Rs. 442 billion ($ 1.5 billion) for 2025. The Ministry of Defence (MOD) allocation represents a nominal 3% increase over the revised 2024 defence budget of Rs. 430.4 billion. The MOD budget in 2023 was approximately Rs. 382 billion.
The 2025 MOD budget allocation includes Rs. 382 billion for recurrent expenditure for military operations, salaries, supplies, and maintenance activity. A total of Rs. 60 billion has been allocated for capital expenditure, including procurement. The allocation for recurrent expenditure is a year-on-year increase of 3%. The capital expenditure rise for 2025 in the Budget is 1%, indicating that there will not be any major defence system acquisitions this year, unless they come in the form of a grant.
The budgetary documents also provide details about funding for separate branches of the Sri Lanka armed forces. The biggest recipient is the SLA, which receives Rs. 225.5 billion in the 2025 defence budget, an increase of about 3%. The Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) and Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) have been allocated Rs. 92.5 billion and Rs. 72.1 billion, amounting to respective increases of 12% and 4%. For capital expenses, the SLAF receives Rs. 21.4 billion in 2025, while the SLN has been allocated Rs. 19.3 billion. The SLA, by far the biggest service in terms of personnel, receives Rs. 5.4 billion in capital expenses.
Other recipients under the MOD budget include the Office of the Minister of Defence, the Departments of Civil Security and Meteorology, and the Sri Lanka Coast Guard. The latter receives Rs. 642 million, including Rs. 250 million for capital expenditure, indicative of the previous Government and the current one’s desire to improve maritime law enforcement capabilities.
The landscape
Defence reforms have been long overdue for post-war Sri Lanka. With the armed conflict coming to an end in 2009, the large size of the armed forces raised by the State for wartime demands remained unaltered over the last decade. This, while consuming a large part of the national expenditure – a luxury Sri Lanka cannot afford to sustain given the status of its economy.
Being an island nation, it is only understandable that Sri Lanka shifts focus to air, maritime, and cyber security. In the absence of a ‘near-peer’ adversary on the horizon, a smaller, smarter, and well-equipped land military component would be needed as a deterrent.
However, Sri Lanka also needs to be mindful about the evolving threat landscape in the strategic environment, which continues to become more complex, spurred by great power competition in the Indian Ocean.
Recent incidents in the Gulf of Aden and along shipping lanes in the West Indian Ocean, the return of piracy concerns, and competition regarding hydrography, ocean resource mapping, and the persistent issue of Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing in and around Sri Lanka need to be taken into consideration when the national security landscape is mapped.
Further, the Easter Sunday bombings of 2019 and associated extremism, the preceding and subsequent social unrest, riots, lack of accountability, failures in energy security, food insecurity, growing climate change-related challenges, critical infrastructure insecurity, cyber security threats, including the recent ransomware attacks which have seen the Government’s critical State email system compromised, and the current status in relation to gun violence and organised crime, all point to the need for Sri Lanka review its national security architecture.
The ever-increasing climate-related challenges in Sri Lanka can no longer be ignored either as they are rapidly becoming a key national security challenge, as are misinformation and influence operations on social media.
The fact that Sri Lanka still does not have a well-crafted national security policy – and a defence strategy based on such – is telling of the poor governance and lack of policy priority which has been given to national security and defence of the island.
In 2023, the then Government sought assistance from the US Institute for Security Governance (ISG) in developing a new defence strategy that could help the Government advocate a more streamlined, technologically advanced military with a heightened maritime focus. Sri Lanka has also requested the ISG’s expertise in analysing military force modernisation and force optimisation options, which was a cumbersome role for the MOD staff to carry out without the right specialisation and subject matter expertise at the time.
An ISG delegation visited Colombo and met the Deputy Minister of Defence in mid-January. In the past there have also been discussions with other nations seeking assistance for defence/security policy planning.
Way forward
Resizing the armed forces for a peace-time role, especially during economically trying times, is warranted if it is done diligently. However, doing so based only on economic priorities and the public perception of the period can leave the strategically positioned island nation vulnerable.
Many nations which have decided there was no longer a ‘traditional near-peer threat’ and downsized militaries to mere constabulary and peacekeeping roles over the first two decades of the 21st century are today scrambling to build capacity to face the evolving threat spectrum.
When asked if the Government would conduct a national security audit or forecast for this year, Ministry of Defence Secretary Air Vice Marshal (Retd) Sampath Thuyacontha did not rule out the possibility, telling The Sunday Morning that it was plausible that the Government would conduct a national security and defence audit.
“Given the stated plans for rightsizing, a comprehensive assessment of current threats, capabilities, and future needs will be a logical step. Such an audit would provide a data-driven foundation for the proposed changes and ensure alignment with evolving security challenges,” he said.
Thuyacontha, responding to a question on whether the Government would consider the ‘Defence Review 2030’ compiled under the previous Government, said: “It is highly likely that the Ministry of Defence will consider the findings of the previous ‘Defence Review 2030’ during the development of the ‘rightsizing’ plan. While the current Government may have its own strategic priorities, a comprehensive review of existing analyses and recommendations would be prudent.
“Leveraging existing research can save time and resources and provide valuable context for the current decision-making process. However, the degree to which the previous review will influence the final plan remains to be seen and it will likely be adjusted to reflect the current Government’s strategic goals and the current economic situation.”
When asked if the reduction in the envisaged cadre of the armed forces by 2030 would impact the current organisation and structure of the services, Thuyacontha opined: “Given the planned rightsizing, it is reasonable to expect potential changes to the structure and organisation of the armed forces.
“The implementation of new technologies (equipment and sensors) and a reduced personnel footprint may necessitate adjustments to operational structures. This could involve the amalgamation of units, the disbanding of certain units, or the creation of new specialised units to address emerging threats. However, the specific nature and extent of these changes will depend on the findings of the upcoming assessments and the Government’s strategic priorities.”
When asked about how the Government planned to introduce new technology and effect modernisation of the armed forces by 2023, Thuyacontha said: “In modern-day warfare, technologies play a crucial role in determining the outcome of conflicts. Advanced weaponry, such as drones and cyber warfare tactics, has transformed traditional combat strategies, making it essential for nations to adapt rapidly to these changing dynamics.
“However, with our country’s current economic situation, to gain progress in the advancement of armed forces, a re-evaluation of resource allocation based on strategic priorities may be needed. With the implementation of personnel reduction while maintaining combat readiness, we will craft a detailed plan about technology advancement and moderation that ensures our national interests are met.”