President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) and his Government – which seems to be slowly but steadily learning the intricacies of governance, especially in relation to the balancing of politics, economics, and policies – will witness the debating of its policies as well as present a three-month Vote on Account to the House this coming week.
Following the completion of the third review of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and taking the debt restructuring process – the private creditors – closer to completion, President AKD is now faced with the real litmus test of his understanding of geopolitics, with neighbouring India and China both making a play to gain close positioning with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) Government.
It is interesting that both India and China play key roles in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery path. India played a key role in Sri Lanka securing the IMF deal in 2022 and also led the country’s debt restructuring programme with the Paris Club. Given Sri Lanka’s high debt burden with China, Sri Lanka also requires Chinese support to complete the debt restructuring process.
Meanwhile, IMF Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka Peter Breuer has also pointed out the need for Sri Lanka to follow the IMF programme as it has done so far by saying after striking the Staff-Level Agreement on the next phase of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme that the IMF would have close discussions with Sri Lanka on the Budget for 2025.
The IMF programme’s fiscal targets on revenues and primary balance are based on the budget proposals of the Government as well as related legal reforms that are also usually announced in the budget. “We will be interested in convincing ourselves that this budget is in line with the programme objectives,” Breuer had said. “So we will be having a very close discussion with the authorities on that.”
Meanwhile, the Cabinet of Ministers last week approved a proposal presented by President AKD in his capacity as Minister of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development to restructure International Sovereign Bonds (ISBs) through the exchanging of new bonds for presently existing bonds.
Sri Lanka reached a final consensus on restructuring debt by the members of the Paris Club Official Creditor Committee (OCC) of key bilateral creditors in June 2024.
In September 2024, an initial agreement was reached with the ISBs on restructuring sovereign debt of $ 14.2 billion, after a compromise in discussions with the Ad Hoc Group of bondholders, a group of representatives of international investors, and the Local Consortium of Sri Lanka.
It is in such a backdrop that Moody’s has now placed Sri Lanka’s ‘Ca’ long-term foreign currency rating on review for an upgrade. The credit ratings agency made this announcement following the Government’s bond exchange offer aimed at completing the restructuring of international bonds.
However, seeing the ongoing developments in the economic recovery path, Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa last week claimed that the AKD Government was following in the path of former President Ranil Wickremesinghe. He also criticised the Government, accusing it of disregarding the people’s mandate.
According to Premadasa, despite promises by the AKD Government of formulating a new IMF-backed programme to provide relief and benefits to the people, the Government has become subservient to the IMF’s directives and has failed to deliver tangible relief to citizens.
Be that as it may, the Opposition will receive the opportunity to make public its sentiments on the Government’s policies and economic recovery plan since parliamentary party leaders last week agreed to debate the Government’s policy statement announced by President AKD in the House on 21 November on Tuesday (3) and Wednesday (4) from 9.30 a.m. to 5 p.m., with a division on the motion scheduled at 5 p.m. on Wednesday.
It was also decided to hold the debate on the Resolution on the Vote on Account with regard to the first four months of 2025 on Thursday (5) and Friday (6) from 9.30 a.m. to 5.30 p.m.
Managing TUs
However, the JVP, which has ridden high on its Trade Union (TU) wing, is now facing challenges in balancing the TUs while working on economic recovery.
Ceylon Electricity Employees’ Union General Secretary Ranjan Jayalal has become the first to bell the cat by responding to criticism regarding the union’s request for the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) management to pay bonuses to employees, claiming: “Our request to pay bonuses to employees has been portrayed as a big sin in the media. We must remind everyone that we are a trade union representing the Government.
“It is no longer necessary for us to protest on the streets to make our demands. This is our Government now. We will remind the Government of our demands and ensure they are met,” he had said, adding: “Our union made governments kneel to our demands and protected the rights of CEB employees. We are the ones who govern the CEB.”
However, the emerging clash between the TUs and the Government was witnessed last week when speaking at the weekly Cabinet briefing, Cabinet Spokesperson Minister Dr. Nalinda Jayatissa said that the administration of the CEB and the TUs functioned separately and that the decision regarding the requested bonus payment would be vested only with the CEB administration.
The Minister further noted that the proposal on revising electricity tariffs would be submitted to the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) by Friday.
Visiting India
Be that as it may, the AKD Government’s next step in economic recovery depends on its foreign policy as well as the balancing of geopolitical sensitivities.
It is learnt that President AKD’s visit to India will take place between the dates of 13 and 20 December. While the initial dates for the visit were to be between 5 and 7 December, President AKD had said he was unable to engage in the visit due to the Vote on Account being presented to the House and the debate on the Government’s policies.
The Indian visit will be the President’s first official visit since assuming office. While details of the visit and agenda points are being finalised by both parties, it is yet to be seen whether the AKD Government will be undertaking the Indian visit for mere optics or as a stepping stone for strong ties.
It is learnt that there won’t be a Sri Lankan high commissioner in India during the President’s Indian visit since High Commissioner Kshenuka Senewiratne is due to return to the country today (1).
RW’s ploy
Former President Wickremesinghe meanwhile continues to perform the role of a thorn in the side of the Government.
Soon after landing in India on his private visit, Wickremesinghe told the Indian media that the AKD Government would have to honour the signing of India’s vision document during the former Wickremesinghe Government.
“In the vision document signed by me and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, we have set out the areas of bilateral cooperation between the two countries. I am of the opinion he (Dissanayake) should move forward and we should implement this vision document in its entirety,” the former President had told PTI.
The vision document adopted during Wickremesinghe’s tour emphasised strengthening maritime, air, and energy ties and people-to-people connectivity between India and Sri Lanka. It also envisaged accelerating mutual cooperation in tourism, power, trade, higher education, and skill development.
Wickremesinghe yet again claimed last week that the incumbent President should continue with the relations he had established between Sri Lanka and India.
Chinese presence
Meanwhile, the JVP/NPP victory at the recent national-level elections seem to have pushed the Chinese into action, with Chinese Ambassador Qi Zhenhong, who has maintained a low profile during the past few months, touring the north and hailing the northerners for their votes at the Parliamentary Elections.
He had also met with a group of select heads of media in Colombo, where he had spoken of China’s long-standing friendship with Sri Lanka and its support.
It is in such a backdrop that President AKD received an official invitation to visit China through the Chinese Ambassador to Sri Lanka. The Government, it is learnt, is considering the visit to China following the President’s official visit to India.
International Department of the Communist Party of China (IDCPC) Central Committee Vice Minister Sun Haiyan paid a courtesy call on President AKD at the Presidential Secretariat on Monday (25 November).
During the meeting, the Vice Minister had extended her congratulations to the President on his victory in the Presidential Election and his party’s resounding success at the Parliamentary Elections. She had commended the transformative changes in Sri Lanka following these wins, highlighting the emergence of a new and progressive political culture.
The delegation had also emphasised the alignment of the goals of both nations and the potential for long-term cooperation on mutually beneficial grounds. One of the key areas discussed had been for Sri Lanka to ensure that the country’s foreign policy would not give preferential treatment to any country.
Sun’s previous meet
However, it is interesting that the recent meeting between President AKD and Sun was not the first. AKD met Sun last December when he undertook a visit to China as the Leader of the JVP/NPP.
During the meeting in China, AKD had discussed with Sun the support the Chinese could extend if his party were to assume office. It is learnt that Sun, while pledging increased support by the Chinese, had also said China could support Sri Lanka’s economy by increasing the number of tourists who visit Sri Lanka.
It is also learnt that the Chinese have said that they can send 10 million visitors to Sri Lanka within two years. The plan is for three million Chinese tourists to visit Sri Lanka during the upcoming tourist season and to increase this figure to six million by the next one.
After assuming office, President AKD had reminded the Chinese about this proposal. The Chinese however seem to have other plans, with tourism now being attached to Chinese research vessels to Sri Lanka.
Push for research vessels
The Chinese, who were disappointed with the former Wickremesinghe Government over the moratorium imposed on Chinese research vessels calling in Sri Lanka, claiming that the country was caving to external pressures, has once again commenced the push to get Chinese research vessels to call in Sri Lanka.
Given that the one-year moratorium on research vessels by the former Government will end on 31 December, the Chinese, it is learnt, have already made requests from the JVP/NPP Government to get Chinese vessels to visit Sri Lanka.
Chinese Ambassador Qi had reportedly indicated during his recent interaction with a group of media heads that Sri Lanka’s decision to stop Chinese research vessels from calling in Sri Lanka had hurt the Chinese people and that it could affect the number of Chinese tourists arriving in the country.
US-JVP/NPP connection
Amidst the AKD Government’s attempt to balance Indian and Chinese ties, some sections in the local political arena have yet again brought back the criticism once faced by the JVP over its alleged links with the US in the 1970s.
During the tenure of the late Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike between 1970 and 1977, when the then Prime Minister formed the Government through an alliance with Leftist parties, the JVP launched an insurrection in 1970.
The JVP claimed during the insurrection that the Government under the guise of being Leftist was actually implementing capitalist policies and the Leftist ministers in the then Government had accused the JVP of carrying out the agenda of a US State agency.
The JVP’s links to the US were publicly established during the 2010 Presidential Election, which former military chief Sarath Fonseka contested as the common presidential candidate with the JVP also extending support.
Nevertheless, there’s still no evidence to back the US’s alleged support for President AKD during the Presidential Election. The minority parties with close affiliations to the US extended their support to SJB candidate Premadasa while some Tamil diaspora groups backed the fielding of a common Tamil candidate at the Presidential Election.
Aftermath of polls
However, Opposition political parties continue to suffer in the aftermath of the recent Parliamentary Elections. Parties and politicians have been left in a quandary, with some wondering about their future in politics while others are trying to figure out when the JVP/NPP Government will fall.
It is learnt that many Opposition politicians have also turned to astrology to find answers to their questions. Many Opposition politicians have met several leading astrologers seeking answers as to why they had lost at the Parliamentary Elections, when the new Government would fall, and what the stars hold for their political future.
Meanwhile, several Opposition politicians, it is also learnt, are looking at resorting to legal action over disputes over preferential vote counts.
It is no secret that several Opposition politicians who had missed entering Parliament by a slim margin of votes have continuously cast doubts over the final vote count. Although most of them have said they will initiate legal action challenging their preferential vote counts, the costly and lengthy process involved in litigation has resulted in many rethinking whether or not to seek legal redress.
LG Polls
Meanwhile, the holding of the delayed Local Government (LG) Elections, it is learnt, has resulted in an intense dialogue between the Election Commission and the Government.
The Election Commission is looking at holding the delayed polls around January while the Government has pointed out that the LG Elections should be held after the presentation and passing of the 2025 Budget, which is scheduled to be carried out from January to the end of February.
Highly-placed sources told ‘The Black Box’ that the LG Elections would be held prior to the Sinhala and Tamil New Year. A final decision of the polls date is yet to be announced by the Election Commission.
Dullas’ letter to AKD
There have also been requests by some election observers as well as Opposition politicians from the Election Commission to call for fresh nominations for the LG Elections and hold the polls under the new nomination lists as well as under the 2024 voter registry.
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) dissident and member of the SJB-led alliance through the Freedom People’s Congress Dullas Alahapperuma has sent a letter to President AKD.
Alahapperuma’s letter had drawn attention to the holding of the delayed LG Elections. He has pointed out that 41 candidates at the delayed LG Elections had now been elected to Parliament, creating issues related to the candidates at the LG Polls.
He had also pointed out that there has been an addition of over 300,000 voters to the voter registry since 2022 (the list that is to be used if LG Elections are held under the existing nomination lists).
Alahapperuma had therefore urged the President to take measures to call for fresh nominations for the LG Elections and hold the delayed polls at the earliest.
Search for Opposition
Amidst all these goings-on, there’s a brewing discussion in political circles on the need for an Opposition and a leadership for it.
The discussion also notes that neither former President Wickremesinghe nor Opposition Leader Premadasa can lead the Opposition that has been reduced to 66 seats in the new Parliament.
The issue of the search for an Opposition leadership was made public by former State Minister Premitha Bandara Tennakoon, who stated that neither Premadasa nor the SJB could pose a formidable challenge to President AKD and the JVP/NPP Government. He called on all Opposition parties to unite to form a force to challenge the Government.
Some Opposition politicians who could not make it to Parliament have already held initial discussions on forming a force outside Parliament to ensure checks and balances in the Government.
UNP-SJB alliance issues
Meanwhile, talk of an alliance between the United National Party (UNP) and SJB, which has become a political topic since the conclusion of the September Presidential Election, re-emerged last week.
This time around it was SJB MP Harshana Rajakaruna who noted that the two parties should look at aligning for a stronger political force. However, he also noted that the SJB leadership should be given the leadership of the UNP. Rajakaruna is known as a Premadasa loyalist and there were no surprises in his call for the UNP leadership to be given to the SJB Leader.
It was UNP Chairman Wajira Abeywardena who responded to Rajakaruna’s proposal. Abeywardena said the UNP leadership would not be given to the SJB Leader. Abeywardena’s response was seen by political analysts as yet another failed attempt at bringing the UNP and SJB together.
Nevertheless, organisers and members of the UNP and SJB continue to talk and push for the two parties to align themselves, pointing out that both parties could perish if they continued to battle on separate platforms.
SJB undecided
The main Opposition SJB meanwhile continues to grapple with the issue of nominating members to Parliament through the party’s National List.
The party, which held lengthy discussions over finalising the four names for the party’s remaining National List slots, failed to announce the names last week. The names were to be first announced on 22 November, but due to the increased chaos over the matter, the decision was deferred to Monday (25 November).
It is now learnt that the SJB is expected to finalise and announce the names of its National List nominees this coming week and SJB General Secretary Ranjith Madduma Bandara, who was overseas and returned last week to the country, has recommenced discussions with coalition partners of the SJB-led alliance.
The key contenders for the four National List slots were Sujeewa Senasinghe, Eran Wickramaratne, Imthiaz Bakeer Markar, Prof. Charitha Herath, Dullas Alahapperuma, Mahesh Senanayake, Ravi Jayawardena, and Mano Ganesan, as well as Hirunika Premachandra, who claimed that the party should allocate one National List slot for a woman and that she was the only deserving individual in that aspect. Minority parties in the SJB alliance are also continuing to demand a seat each.
Sujeewa’s decision
Meanwhile, angered by the ongoing clashes over the SJB National List slots, Premadasa loyalist Senasinghe has claimed he will make a political decision if the party fails to send him to Parliament through the National List. Senasinghe has further claimed that it was his actions that had rallied the party together after the 2020 Parliamentary Elections.
It is learnt that there had also been an understanding between several SJB seniors and Senasinghe to ensure the inclusion of his name among those of SJBers who will enter Parliament through the National List.
Given the ongoing clashes over the National List slots with minority parties in the SJB alliance demanding three out of the five seats, the SJB is left with one seat for the party since Madduma Bandara has already filled one of the seats.
Tissa in hot water
It is learnt that Senasinghe’s name is also being looked at by the SJB leadership as the party’s new national organiser.
Incumbent National Organiser Tissa Attanayake has earned the wrath of the SJB leadership and his confidants following his public statement calling for party reforms after the party’s defeat at the Parliamentary Elections.
Several Premadasa confidants have requested him to commence the party reforms urged by Attanayake by replacing the latter’s position in the party with another.
Harsha’s request
Meanwhile, it is learnt that SJB MP Dr. Harsha de Silva, who has witnessed a boost in his popularity within and outside the SJB, had made a request from the party leadership on whom he would nominate to Parliament through the National List.
Accordingly, de Silva had proposed that SJB Economic Committee member Wickramaratne and the party’s Women’s Wing National Organiser Premachandra, who were both defeated at the Parliamentary Elections, be nominated to Parliament through the SJB National List.
However, given the stiff competition for the four remaining National List slots of the SJB, it is still unclear who will finally make it to Parliament.
CEO for SJB
Amidst all this chaos within the SJB, the party leadership is looking at introducing a new position in the party. It is learnt that Premadasa is looking at appointing a Chief Executive Officer (CEO) for the SJB.
The new CEO is expected to ensure that the party functions smoothly.
Meanwhile, it is learnt that Premadasa is also on the lookout for a secretary to the Opposition Leader. While Premadasa has looked at several contenders, it was highly likely that Ravi Jayawardena could be appointed as the Opposition Leader’s secretary.
SLFP continues demand
Meanwhile, the chaos over the remaining National List slot of the New Democratic Front (NDF) – ‘gas cylinder’ alliance – that contested under the ‘gas cylinder’ symbol continued through last week, with the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the SLPP dissidents of the Podujana Eksath Nidahas Peramuna under the ‘trophy’ symbol demanding the slot.
SLFP Leader, former MP Nimal Siripala de Silva claimed that the party had discussed with the NDF that the remaining National List slot should be given to the SLFP.
The SLFP’s Politburo and Central Committee had decided during two meetings on 22 November that the party would stake a claim for the NDF National List slot.
Holding the slot
However, the continuing clashes over the ‘gas cylinder’ National List slot has resulted in a clear division between the parties that contested under the alliance.
Former Minister Kanchana Wijesekera’s nomination to fill the remaining National List slot of the alliance had met with opposition from coalition parties.
Meanwhile, a new name to have emerged for the ‘gas cylinder’ alliance for the National List slot is SLPP dissident and New Alliance Leader Nimal Lanza.
Lanza, who was in the US when his name was proposed to the National List, had said he was ready to return to Sri Lanka and engage in the required work if his name was nominated by the ‘gas cylinder’ alliance.
The continued delaying tactics by Wickremesinghe in finalising the nominee for the National List slot has resulted in speculation that the seat might remain vacant for some time in order to send Wickremesinghe to Parliament.
Muslim representation issues
Meanwhile, amidst the ongoing political developments, the role of the minority communities in Sri Lanka’s political future, especially under a JVP/NPP Government, continues to remain a key concern, with much focus on the issue of the lack of Muslim representation in the Cabinet as well as the Government’s blurred position on a solution to the Tamil national question.
Minister Vijitha Herath recently faced questions over the non-inclusion of a Muslim member in the new Cabinet. A video clip of a group of Muslims expressing concerns to Herath over the failure to include a Muslim individual in the Cabinet went viral recently. The video is said to have been made during a meeting Herath had with a group of Muslims from the Akurana area.
Herath responds to the concerns saying that the Government has not divided people on ethnic grounds and has already taken measures to appoint Muslim nationals as the Deputy Speaker and a Governor as well as through the JVP/NPP National List. He also notes that while the Government did not think along ethnic lines, some elements were trying to create disharmony by instigating Muslims.
The Muslims pointed out that the concerns were being raised not to demand a Cabinet portfolio but because the lack of a Muslim member in the Cabinet would make it difficult for them to air their grievances, especially when an issue related to religion came up.
“Don’t say that and don’t ask for that (a Cabinet portfolio on ethnic grounds). It is wrong,” Herath is heard saying, adding: “I was a Cabinet Minister in 2004. It was I who presented the Cabinet paper asking for permission to include a piece of cloth for the hijab worn by Muslim students. I did that, but I’m not a Muslim.”
“A Muslim did not get elected from the NPP from the Ampara District, but we appointed Abubakar Adambawa through the party’s National List to Parliament. It is this kind of thinking that gets pushed to the edge. We appointed a Muslim as a Governor,” Herath added.
However, it is evident that the JVP/NPP Government will have to pay extra attention to managing the minority communities in the country, especially in minimising the trust deficit that has been built by successive governments and political leaderships in the country.
Apart from the anti-Muslim riots witnessed in the country on several occasions in 2014 in Aluthgama and in 2018 in Digana, one of the key issues that continue to be a sensitive point for Muslims is the enforced cremation of Muslims who died during the global pandemic despite health experts pointing out there was no danger in burying the Covid dead.
Cabinet Spokesperson Minister Dr. Jayatissa also shared a sentiment similar to that of Minister Herath when he said at last week’s Cabinet briefing that the Government did not work on ethnic or religious lines and would also ensure that no individual would be sidelined on ethnic or religious lines.
Tamil parties concerned
The Tamil political parties from the north that were defeated at the Parliamentary Elections have expressed concerns over President AKD’s policy statement delivered at the opening of the 10th Parliament.
MPs of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) have pointed out that the President had not addressed the issue of a political solution to the long-standing Tamil issue. The ITAK presented this demand during the Presidential Election campaign in September to extend support to the JVP/NPP. However, due to the lack of a clear response on the Tamil national issue, the ITAK split, with one faction supporting SJB candidate Premadasa and the other extending support to former President Wickremesinghe.
However, the ITAK’s continuing demand for a solution to the national question comes amid Tamil people in the Northern Province having sent out a message that they are supportive of President AKD and the JVP/NPP.
Permission to commemorate
Meanwhile, in a bid at reconciliation, Public Security Minister Ananda Wijepala said that while the Tamils in the north could commemorate the loss of their loved ones during the war, there was no possibility of holding events using logos, uniforms, or pictures of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) cadres to commemorate ‘Maaveerar Naal’ on 27 November.
Wijepala noted that the people of the north would not be obstructed from remembering their relatives who had died in Sri Lanka’s civil war.
Responding to questions by journalists during an event in Galgamuwa last week, the Minister revealed that, as per the laws of the nation, the LTTE was a banned terrorist outfit.
He further said that the Government had not prevented the public in the north from remembering their relatives who had died in the war.