Sri Lanka’s backyard, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is a dynamic space with many opportunities and challenges, many of which a new Government in Colombo will need to get accustomed to navigate, quickly. Sri Lanka is still in a transitional period, following a ‘shock’ to its political and economic system, and with a new President at the helm. And with Parliamentary Election around the bend, the composition of the next Legislature and Government still unpredictable, the island nation needs to move swiftly to achieve political stability and build its economic comeback.

This month, the ‘Quad’, officially the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, made up of a group of four countries: The United States, Australia, India, and Japan, is holding its largest combined naval exercise – Malabar 2024 in the Bay of Bengal. This year marks the 28th iteration of the exercise, which began in 1992 as a bilateral exercise between the United States and India. The exercise has since evolved in scope and complexity and now includes Japan and Australia. Commencing on 9 October, ‘Malabar 2024’ is the fifth time that all four nations have participated in the exercise to advance the collective planning, integration and employment of advanced warfare tactics across participating nations. Hosted by the Indian Navy, the exercise reflects the evolving security dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region, and underscores the growing role India is playing in counterbalancing China’s growing influence, within the sphere.

“I’m fired up to be here today with my counterparts as our navies train together in the Indian Ocean to strengthen our combat readiness, maritime integration, and interoperability," US Pacific Fleet Commander, Adm. Steve Koehler, who was in Colombo recently to meet newly-elected President Anura Kumara Dissnayake and hand over a US-donated Maritime Patrol Aircraft to Sri Lanka, had stated. "Malabar is a great example of a combined team operating together in order to deter conflict and reinforce our shared commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” the top US Navy officer in the Indo-Pacific, added. The exercises have been growing in size and complexity as the ‘quad’ members race to build interoperability, capacity and resilience to check China’s inroads in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

“Malabar 2024 reaffirms Indian Navy’s commitment to maritime security and cooperation among like-minded nations in the Indo-Pacific,” Vice Adm. Rajesh Pendharkar, the Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Indian Navy Eastern Command said. “Our joint efforts aim to enhance operational synergy and foster stronger bonds of friendship. Together, we look towards safeguarding our shared values and achieving peace and stability in the region.” The exercise is said to include combined training in the surface, sub-surface, air and information domains, and will see participation of a wide range of assets from the four nations. The recent supply and construction of basing infrastructure for Chinese-supplied submarines in Bangladesh and warships transferred to Cambodia has raised concerns among Quad nations. This may reflect why the Quad has placed a strong anti-submarine warfare focus for Malabar 2024.  

With concerns about China’s maritime strategy and its growing footprint in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), it is clear that geopolitical contention in Sri Lanka’s ‘backyard’ is here to stay, and growing. China’s deployment of Marine Scientific Research (MSR) vessels and specialised missile and satellite tracking vessels into the Indian Ocean, being viewed with distrust and concern by India and the other Quad members, Sri Lanka will need to get its foreign policy calibrated well and communicate it clearly. This is due to possible attempts by China to exploit academic linkages with Sri Lanka academia and State institutions to revive MSR research efforts once Sri Lanka’s year-long moratorium on the practice ends in January 2025. That is if Sri Lanka lets the moratorium expire without extending it. 

Sri Lanka needs to work on its policies now, and not resort to last minute ad-hoc action once the deadline nears. Clear communication and articulation of one’s foreign policy, and policy continuity are important tools in diplomacy for small States like Sri Lanka.