The devastating magnitude 7.7 earthquake which struck Myanmar last Friday (28) impacted a number of other countries in the periphery, including Bangladesh, India, Laos, Thailand, and China. A global relief effort is underway to assist the war-ravaged, junta-led Southeast Asian nation, which borders the Indian Ocean. International media reports indicate that the search for survivors continues in Myanmar, where some 1,700 people have been confirmed dead, as of last afternoon, with another 17 more deaths reported in neighbouring Thailand’s capital, Bangkok, some 1,000km (620 miles) from the epicentre of the quake. As the world rushes to assist the impacted region, many Sri Lankans are questioning the island nation’s preparedness to face such a calamity.
Despite not being traditionally known as an earthquake-prone area, Sri Lanka has unexpectedly experienced a rise in seismic activity in the recent past. Over the past few years, a series of minor tremors have been reported. According to the Asia Pacific Alliance for Disaster Management, Sri Lanka reported a total of 16 incidents in 2020 and 18 occurrences in 2021. However, the number of recorded minor tremors decreased to five in 2022. In 2023, nine minor tremors have been reported thus far. Meanwhile, the Geological Survey and Mines Bureau of Sri Lanka stated that the likelihood of tremors significantly affecting buildings is minimal since the majority of recorded tremors register below magnitude 3 on the Richter scale. However, this unusual surge in tremor occurrences has raised concerns and attracted attention within both the expert community and the local population. In 2023, A-PAD SL partnered with the Disaster Management Centre and successfully produced an extensive guide for proactive community earthquake preparedness with the technological assistance of the Geological Survey and Mines Bureau (GSMB).
In 2023, concerns grew about the potential for an earthquake in India, which experts said poses no immediate threat to Sri Lanka. Local experts were reassured after Indian scientists warned about the possibility of earthquakes in the Uttarakhand region in India. The concerns came in the backdrop of Indian National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI) Chief Scientist Dr. N. Purnachandra Rao revealing to Indian media last week that the Himalayan region remained highly vulnerable to tremors, with Uttarakhand likely to “witness a massive earthquake any time” of a magnitude “similar to or more than Türkiye”, adding that it could be a magnitude 8 scale earthquake. One local expert told us that the impact of an earthquake depended on its intensity, which was usually indicated by its place on the Richter scale. “An earthquake of magnitude 5 on the Richter scale occurred in 2020 and was felt in Colombo and Jaffna. From a geological point of view, if a 5 on the scale is felt in Colombo, a quake of magnitude 8 or more will definitely be felt,” the local expert said, noting however that since it was only a forecast, the chances of an earthquake could go either way but that it was necessary to be prepared for it.
Experts at the GSMB also stressed that the possibility of a serious impact was low and that there was little cause for concern. However, they expressed concerns about planned and unplanned high-density urbanisation and the build quality of some buildings, especially high-rise buildings and apartment complexes, which have been mushrooming around Colombo and the west coast. “In the Sri Lankan context, most high-rises may be safe, but in case of a poorly constructed building, there can be some impact,” an expert at the National Building Research Organisation (NBRO) said, adding that they are taking steps to implement a national building code to ensure that buildings are structurally sound. “At present, there are no regulations as such but it is up to the engineer to use the best practices in construction. Therefore, we realised it was important to adopt a building code which would implement regulations.”
Given the fact that Sri Lanka’s population centre is in Colombo and Gampaha and along the western seaboard, it would be prudent for the Government to conduct a risk assessment with local and foreign experts to map the possible impact of a mid-level/major earthquake. Let us not wait for the next crisis to happen, to act.