The events that resulted in a tectonic shift in Sri Lanka’s political landscape are now the stuff of history. The politicians, without exception, have played all their cards, so there’s nothing more to say and no more aces to play. The winner has taken it all, the losers are standing small, but beside the victory, that’s Sri Lanka’s destiny. (With apologies to the ’70s pop icon, ABBA)
It is now one week since Sri Lanka elected a new Executive President and it appears that comrade Anura Kumara Dissanayake could do no wrong these days given the wave of public support he is currently enjoying. But waves are what they are; they come and disappear soon enough, making way for another. So, basking in the glory while it lasts is pretty much par for the course.
Nevertheless, Dissanayake and his National People’s Power (NPP) was an ‘experiment’ that the electorate was waiting to perform, and in fact a necessary one – given Sri Lanka’s current circumstances. Whether he will be equal to the immense task that voters have thrust on his shoulders is to be seen, but it is something that the nation needs to find out.
While congratulations are due to the newly-elected President for what is surely a spectacular victory that has no doubt shaken the establishment to its core, Anura Kumara Dissanayake must realise and be ever-conscious of the fact that he is Sri Lanka’s first-ever minority President – elected through a minority share of the vote, having failed to secure 50% plus one. He must understand at the outset that what the people have given him is not a blank cheque, but in fact a dated cheque where, should he fail to deliver, his fate will be no different to his two most recent predecessors.
An interesting alternate perspective of the election result is that all of the candidates have been effectively rejected by the people since no candidate managed to secure 50%. To be more precise, Dissanayake was rejected by 58%, Sajith Premadasa by 68%, Ranil Wickremesinghe by 78%, and Namal Rajapaksa by an unforgiving 97.5%. The writing, it appears, is clearly on the wall for those who wish to see it.
Given the handicap of having obtained just 42% of the vote, Dissanayake will have to make an extra effort – from the word go – in order to keep both his supporters as well as detractors – who now form the majority – at bay; a situation none of his predecessors had to deal with until much later in their tenure.
The fact of the matter is that much more than 58% of the population appears to have opposed Dissanayake, considering that 3.5 million Sri Lankans boycotted the election. The ‘no-shows’ that translate to a whopping 21% of the vote – a percentage even higher than the 17% polled by the outgoing President who secured third place, is testament to the general sense of apathy over the state of the nation.
To his credit, Dissanayake appears to have taken stock of this intriguing statistic and chosen to play it safe thus far, probably in view of the looming General Election. However, such back-foot play – in cricketing parlance – would inevitably lead to impatience if not downright discontent within his own ranks, given the rhetoric on election platforms promising instant change. The President in his acceptance speech at the swearing-in ceremony seemed far removed from that rhetoric and reminded the nation that he is no magician; quite a U-turn from the campaign a couple of weeks ago, where change was promised ‘within 24 hours of taking office’.
The reality check that the burden of high office has obviously thrust on him must surely have weighed in on the visible change in Dissanayake’s usually buoyant demeanour. His subsequent decision to not only continue with the same economic policy of the Wickremesinghe administration as well as the same economic team comprising Central Bank Chief Nandalal Weerasinghe and the much-maligned Treasury Secretary Mahinda Siriwardana appears to have not helped the cause either. In doing so he has already backtracked from the pledge to amend the debt sustainability analysis to secure more favourable conditions in the IMF-led restructuring effort.
The ‘play safe’ mode was evident even during his maiden address to the nation, where, probably for the first time, Dissanayake ditched his usual off-the-cuff presentation style to read off a prepared script. It is often said that everyone is a hero until they are given responsibility. Whether Dissanayake can withstand the pressure of office, of rescuing a bankrupt country while delivering on the multitude of promises, only time will tell, but the one thing he will find in short supply is time.
As far as the NPP’s main contender, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and its alliance is concerned, if it is to make a significant impact at the upcoming General Election, it should first embark on a post-mortem on how it read the pulse of the people so wrong. It must go further and analyse why it dumped millions on a campaign that lacked focus. At the end of the day, the general message people received via different platforms was unclear and distorted to the extent that cross-messaging killed off whatever impact it had. For instance, the party’s television campaign was anchored on the theme of ‘unity,’ while speakers on political platforms focused on fixing the economy. Both missed what the people were demanding: war on corruption.
It is this singular message, which the SJB took for granted, that the NPP effectively and consistently leveraged through all its campaign channels. It is not too late for the SJB to take stock of its failures and make a comeback at the General Election, but that task is now that much harder given Dissanayake’s current popularity. But one factor that is notably in the SJB’s favour is that people are aware of the danger of handing out a two-thirds majority to a single party given the bitter experience and disaster that was the last Parliament.
The SJB can only blame itself for not performing better, having taken the lead in the fight against corruption by moving the apex court and obtaining favourable rulings on crucial issues such as the e-visa issue, IGP appointment, identifying those responsible for the economic crisis, identifying those found negligent in the Easter Sunday massacre, etc. But its failure to transform this success into votes shows the mess too many cooks can make.
Based on the most recent experience, it is in the nation’s interest that the Government that is to be elected is answerable to the people and not to itself, as it was the last time. Now that the nation has elected a President on the strength of his promise to fight corruption, Parliament must facilitate that process through its own checks and balances – a process that could easily be overridden through a two-thirds majority as evidenced through the last Parliament. In fact, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna’s (SLPP) own leadership has publicly blamed the comfortable majority it enjoyed as the main reason for the party’s downfall, pointing out that the complacency it created ultimately led to the party’s implosion.
Sri Lanka is seeing a positive new phenomenon where a new generation of voters – the youth – is not only unforgiving of those whom they vote into office and who fail to deliver, but is also prepared to cross party boundaries based on issues and policies. The election of Sri Lanka’s new President is testament to that progressive shift in voting patterns.
In fact, it is not something that has come about the other day. In 2015 Ranil Wickremesinghe promised to root out corruption and punish those responsible. Five years later, having failed to deliver, he and his party were reduced to zero at the last Parliamentary Poll in 2020.
Wickremesinghe received a second chance to fulfil that old promise through the interim presidency which he got on a platter, but here again he failed to deliver and the people responded by repeating the same verdict. This result-oriented voting shows that the days of gallery politics and offering handouts in return for votes is over. It also shows that voters have no appetite for those tainted with corruption allegations. The SJB must surely be questioning the wisdom of having accepted such individuals into its fold at the last minute and the consequent impact on its fortunes.
Therefore, the criteria is clear for all those vying for election to the new Parliament. As far as the new regime is concerned, as the saying goes, the proof of the pudding is in the eating and it will do well to study the fate of Wickremesinghe and of the last Parliament – dubbed the worst-ever – if it is to translate its presidential success to parliamentary success as well.