When Friday (21) dawned, President Ranil Wickremesinghe was in India preparing for his long-awaited meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi later that morning. The day was significant, for it was on this day exactly one year ago that he took his oath as the ninth Executive President of Sri Lanka, having been elected to the post through a constitutional provision which enabled Parliament to elect him the previous day – 20 July 2022.
As usual, in typical Wickremesinghe style, there were no tamashas or even mention of the anniversary in State media, which is noted for its hysterical pandering to the former regime which Wickremesinghe replaced. But that by no means suggests that Wickremesinghe himself was unaware of the historic significance of the day, nor even Big Brother across the Palk Straits for that matter, choosing that very day for his long-sought-after date with the Indian PM, who seemed to be in no hurry to respond to the overtures from Colombo.
Historically, every newly-elected president has made a beeline to New Delhi as the first port of call post-election in recognition of India’s geopolitical importance to this island nation. However, it was not to be this time around despite Big Brother coming to the country’s rescue with economic assistance amounting to more than the IMF bailout itself. It appears that India, knowing well the clout it wielded owing to Sri Lanka’s increasing dependency on it for survival, did not want to shake hands with an interim appointee until such time that he consolidated his position and was seemingly secure in the post.
The passage of the assortment of controversial bills in Parliament over the course of the past few months must necessarily have created the backdrop for that assurance, signalling an end to the probation period. Ruling party MPs standing with the President’s policies despite most of it being the opposite of what the majority of them have stood for all through their political life must surely be the icing on the cake. Then again, when survival is a choice between principle and policy, it really is a no-brainer for MPs who have a reputation for changing colours faster than a chameleon.
Wickremesinghe’s ascension to office has been intriguing and at least one MP who had endeared himself to the former regime and now taking great pains to project himself as ‘independent’ has gone to the extent of publishing a book claiming the entire saga to be a ‘foreign conspiracy’ and even naming the alleged key actors. Whether the new Parliamentary Select Committee appointed to probe the reasons for Sri Lanka’s bankruptcy, now exclusively comprising ruling party MPs, will find it worthwhile to probe these conspiracy allegations, only time will tell.
That allegation appears to be gaining currency with an increasing number of ruling party MPs joining the ‘conspiracy’ chorus. While it seems that the battle lines are being drawn slowly but surely, making life that much harder for the President who is completely dependent on the ruling party MPs for his survival, Big Brother who is always a step ahead obviously sees no impediments for the incumbent despite the noises in the background, resulting in the vote of confidence one year on.
Be that as it may, the President, to his credit, has managed to reverse the adverse economic environment of one year ago. But the country is still a long way off from safety, and as for the President, he too is not assured of job security should push come to shove given the recent utterings of ruling party bigwigs, especially on his assurances to Tamil political parties on ‘full implementation’ of the Indian-brokered 13th Amendment.
The discussion that took place on the eve of his departure to India has already been discounted by the Tamil parties as yet another red herring meant to please Big Brother. But the ruling SLPP appears to have taken it seriously and its General Secretary has gone to the extent of issuing a veiled threat to Wickremesinghe, reminding him that he is enjoying the mandate given to Gotabaya Rajapaksa and that he has no moral right to implement the 13th Amendment in full, something that none of his eight predecessors ventured to do.
From a historical perspective, the 13th Amendment has been a catalyst in both making and breaking presidencies past. If the SLPP’s utterings are to be taken seriously, it appears that the lines are being drawn for a confrontation between the Executive and his own ruling administration on full implementation of the 13th Amendment. As karma would have it, the last time such a confrontation took place was when its author and first Executive President, J.R. Jayewardene, attempted to push it down the throat of his Cabinet and some powerful ministers at the time openly opposed it.
Wickremesinghe, who was a Cabinet Minister at the time, was steadfast in his support of his uncle, President Jayewardene, and has consistently advocated full implementation of the amendment even though his avowed stance has not transformed into action in the multiple times his party has been in power since its introduction.
However, this is the first time that Wickremesinghe is talking about the subject as Executive President and therein lies the rub. It is his own ally the SLPP that is now questioning the absence of a people’s mandate for pushing ahead with the 13th. Only time will tell how this plays out, but chances are it is yet another episode of the continuing drama to keep the hoi polloi embroiled, engaged, and enraged. The tell-tale sign that the Tamil parties are not buying the tale is an indication that it is more in favour of the latter.
Be that as it may, it is becoming inevitable that Wickremesinghe will have to consult the people sooner rather than later given the increasing incompatibilities in the current administrative set-up, a sentiment echoed by the SLPP General Secretary as well last week, who is on record stating that the President has been informed that if he wishes to proceed with his course of action vis-à-vis the 13th, he must first consult the people and obtain an appropriate mandate for same.
Meanwhile, the co-architect of the 13th Amendment, India, is still as relentless as it was on 14 November 1987 when it became law, in pushing for its full implementation despite the political dynamics here and probably the motivation for it at the time undergoing a dramatic transformation in its favour in the intervening 36 years.
It is an open secret that rather than the interests of the Tamil community per se, Big Brother had other vested interests in the implementation of the 13th, which it has now achieved outside of it, making implementation of the 13th somewhat of academic interest. At the time the Indo-Lanka Accord was signed, paving the way for the 13th, it was all too clear that Big Brother was not too pleased with Sri Lanka opening up its economy and its Hong Kong-like ambitions. The war that followed ensured those ambitions remained mere ambitions and 36 years later, it has become a distant dream.
Wickremesinghe signing on the dotted line on the first anniversary of his presidency, engaging India on the development of Trincomalee as a regional energy hub – the apple in the hegemonic eye – and paving the way for energy dependency through the proposed multi-product petroleum pipeline from India to Sri Lanka in addition to the Sampur power project and the clincher, acceptance of the Indian Rupee for cross border transactions, is a coup de grace for Big Brother achieved with much grace in the end.