With the Opposition’s no-confidence motion against the Speaker of Parliament throwing up no surprises as widely anticipated given the governing party’s comfortable majority, Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena will continue to preside over sittings for the remainder of the tenure of the present Parliament – the length of which is now the subject of much speculation.
Even though the Speaker survived the Opposition challenge with 117 ruling party members opposing the motion while 75 members voted in favour of it, the matter would have taken on a different hue if the Speaker’s own logic and arithmetic that resulted in the controversial appointment of the Inspector General of Police (IGP), which ironically was one of the triggers of the motion, had been applied in this instance as well.
Interestingly, 33 Members of Parliament decided to abstain from voting for the motion of no confidence. Therefore, if the Speaker’s logic is applied in this instance as in the appointment of the IGP by the Constitutional Council presided over by the Speaker by adding the abstentions to the Opposition tally of 75, those in favour of the motion would rise to a relatively more formidable 108, leaving the Government with a thin buffer.
Probably anticipating a close call, the Government Whip insisted on the presence of all Government members at voting time. It is this reality that compelled the likes of the Tourism Minister, a staunch supporter of the President, to take no chances. The Minister interrupted a promotional tour in Australia just to attend voting in Parliament and was back on a plane the very next day to continue the tour.
As far as the Government is concerned, it must surely worry over its falling numbers in Parliament over the course of the past three-and-a-half years. Starting off with a thumping two-thirds majority of 151 members in 2020, two years later, following the exit of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, it came down to 134, which is the number that voted in favour of the incumbent presidency – a marked reduction of 17 votes. Now another one-and-a-half years later, the diehard support group has shrunk to 117, yet another reduction of 17 votes from the 134. Therefore, the regime will have to keep its numbers in check if it is to see through essential legislation still in the pipeline, including the crucially-important Public Finance Management Bill, which is a precursor for further International Monetary Fund (IMF) engagement and continuation of its ongoing Emergency Fund Facility.
Keeping the numbers together will also be critical in surviving the full tenure of the current Parliament, which has a legal mandate to continue until August next year. However, with a Presidential Election due to take place in six months or so, there is a strong likelihood that whoever is elected will waste no time in dissolving Parliament. The President, whether the incumbent or the next, has the constitutional right to dissolve Parliament at a time of his or her choosing as it has already completed the requisite minimum period.
However, with the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) openly lobbying for a General Election ahead of the Presidential for obvious reasons, dissolution can only take place in one of three ways: dissolution of Parliament by the President, Parliament deciding to dissolve itself, or the Government being defeated at the budget vote. With Budget 2025 taking place after the Presidential Election, that option is out of the equation as far as the SLPP is concerned. The second option of Parliament voting for dissolution also seems improbable with the Government’s support base down to 117 members at the last count – 33 short of the required two-thirds majority.
The Opposition is unlikely to support dissolution ahead of the Presidential Poll unless it wants to shoot itself in the foot, knowing well the perils of doing so under the current status quo with the full might of the State machinery, including the Police, in the hands of the current regime, which has already shown it is not shy of making the most absurd appointments to key positions if it is in its favour.
The controversial appointment of the IGP, followed by the arrival of SLPP chief political strategist Basil Rajapaksa from the US and the appointment of the Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE) Chair that same day, and subsequent noises being made about a General Election seem to indicate a familiar pattern. Whether the Opposition will fall for the bait, we will have to wait and see.
Therefore, the only likely way the SLPP can have its election wish fulfilled ahead of the scheduled Presidential Election is by presidential diktat. Already held captive by the SLPP, without whose support the President will find himself out of a job, a tantalising battle of wits is on the cards with his bête noir in the shape and form of the SLPP chief strategist, who has proven himself to be a step ahead more often than not when it comes to the hustings, marking time to make his move.
Alternatively, the President has the option of advancing the Presidential Poll, pre-empting a counter move. He has the opportunity of marketing his economic saviour role and hoping for redemption from the United National Party (UNP) faithful by going it alone or continuing to work with the SLPP, which of course can be perilous if the mood of the party faithful the last time around is anything to go by. It will be recalled that the party’s traditional voters punished the leadership in the harshest possible manner by reducing its tally to zero at the last General Election (the one seat it secured being a bonus seat under the Proportional Representation system), ostensibly for going soft on the Rajapaksa juggernaut.
Meanwhile, other developments on the political front last week are also likely to have a profound impact on the political aspirations of the main presidential contenders. The mass Opposition member exodus from the key parliamentary oversight committee, the COPE, over the course of the past week following the appointment of a ruling party strongman as its Chairman remains unprecedented. The new Chair’s only claim to holding that post during this economic crisis being his loyalty to the SLPP leadership sans any educational accomplishments has sent a strong signal to voters that the change they sought through the popular struggle will not come about under the current dispensation.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on the President as to what action he will take following the revelation by his former boss, former President Maithripala Sirisena, that he knew who was behind the deadly Easter Sunday terror attacks in 2019, when Wickremesinghe served as Prime Minister. Sirisena said he was willing to provide conclusive evidence before a judge.
The President, who promised the nation to bring in Scotland Yard to probe the massacre on assuming the presidency but is yet to do so nearly two years later, will have to show better resolve in acting on Sirisena’s revelation this time around. The long arm of the law that is extra efficient in certain matters will also be obliged to question Sirisena as to why he withheld such profoundly important information for nearly five years until it seemed politically expedient to do so. In any other nation that respects and adheres to the rule of law, Sirisena would have by now been summoned for questioning.
Having had his say, which is now on public record, there is no way that Sirisena can avoid liability for willfully withholding purportedly-sensitive information pertaining to mass murder – an act punishable by law. Therefore, the President’s actions in riding out the gathering storm will essentially define his electoral prospects as well as that of the UNP and SLPP, whatever the election may be.