While President Anura Kumara Dissanayake was absorbing the lavish red-carpet welcome extended to him by the People’s Republic of China as he embarked on a four-day visit to the country last week, domestic developments of the political kind appeared to have been weighing heavily on his mind. Just a couple of days before his departure to China, Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) endured multiple, humiliating losses at the Cooperative Society Elections held recently.
These elections, which are considered as being the root of the grassroots, signifying the entry level of the local political hierarchy, are considered an accurate barometer of public sentiment at a given time. In areas as diverse as Hambantota in the deep south, Kelaniya in the Gampaha District, and Homagama in the Colombo District, the NPP was fairly and squarely routed, with the big winner being the main parliamentary Opposition, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), as well as independent groups.
What must have rung alarm bells at the NPP’s headquarters in Pelawatte is that barely two months ago, these same electorates returned a comprehensive two-third majority for the party at the November General Elections and to now see those gains disappear must surely be cause for concern. The results were more pronounced in Kelaniya, where the SJB was able to reverse the results of the November poll by securing a comprehensive two-thirds majority.
The reason for the quick, wholesale reversal appears to be the growing disconnect between what the NPP preached while in Opposition and its performance thus far in office. Also noteworthy is the growing perception, be it in the cosmopolitan Western Province or not-so-cosmopolitan Southern Province and elsewhere, that the NPP may not have been sincere in what it stated during the hustings.
It will be recalled that the NPP was at one time the harshest critic of Chinese-funded projects in the country, which were routinely identified as white elephants by the party. These included the Hambantota Port, Mattala Airport, Port City, miles of underutilised highways in the deep south, a convention centre, a cricket stadium, the Lotus Tower, etc. – all of which the party alleged guzzled up multi-billion-dollar investments with little or no return on investment in order to pay back the hefty loans. The party went to great extent to identify these Chinese-funded projects as being the root cause of the country’s bankruptcy.
The people, having bought into the NPP’s version of events, now understandably feel flummoxed by its quick U-turn upon assuming office and it is the effects of that reversal that appear to be influencing grassroot political sentiment, as evidenced from the emerging results of the Cooperative Society Elections.
In fact, the NPP derived much electoral traction by driving an anti-China agenda while in Opposition, often criticising and accusing China of turning Sri Lanka into one of its colonies by putting it in a debt trap through its Belt and Road Initiative, that provided billions of dollars in funding for questionable projects. In fact, it shared similar negative sentiments about India as well for the longest time, going to the extent of sacrificing the lives of thousands of youths in propagating its doctrine, but upon assuming office, the party policy appears to have undergone overnight radical transformation, leaving even its hardcore supporters understandably unimpressed.
It is in this backdrop that Dissanayake disembarked from his plane and was given a rousing welcome by his Chinese counterpart, Chinese President Xi Jinping. In the three days that followed, as many as 15 different bilateral agreements were reported to have been signed, but details pertaining to them still appear sketchy in the absence of any official detailed disclosure.
This is notwithstanding a lengthy joint statement issued at the conclusion of the visit, which essentially focused on many things ranging from “deepening traditional friendship,” advancing Belt and Road cooperation, and “multi-sectoral practical cooperation between China and Sri Lanka on regional and international issues of mutual interest,” but appeared to ignore any specifics on the many agreements entered into.
Reading through the voluminous text of the joint statement, two items are likely to ruffle feathers among Sri Lanka’s other cheerleaders and inevitably lead to regional foreign policy complications. Given the backdrop of Chinese marine research vessels snooping around the nation’s territorial waters, much to the ire of neighbour India, the statement affirms Sri Lanka’s commitment to the contentious subject of marine cooperation with China. The joint statement speaks of the bilateral “desire to continue maritime cooperation” leading to signing a ‘Memorandum of Understanding on Ocean Cooperation’ while the specifics of it have not been spelled out. The MOU is unlikely to amuse the Indians, who have been closely following the NPP’s sudden endearment towards Beijing.
Judging by the MOU, it seems that the Chinese have wasted no time in sealing a maritime cooperation agreement with Sri Lanka that will likely allow its vessels back into India’s backyard following the expiry of the Wickremesinghe-era ban on foreign research vessels entering Sri Lankan waters. The ban ended on 31 December last year. Now, barely two weeks after expiry, China appears to have secured a fresh agreement to access Lankan waters for ‘research purposes’.
Interestingly, upon completion of President Dissanayake’s maiden overseas trip – that being to India – last month, the joint statement issued at the end of that visit emphasised that Sri Lanka would remain committed to not permitting its territory, including its territorial waters, to be used in any manner inimical to regional stability in general and the security interests of India in particular.
That statement issued last month read: “Both nations in the Indian Ocean Region reaffirmed their commitment to working together in countering traditional and non-traditional threats as well as to ensure a free, open, safe and secure Indian Ocean Region.” In diplomatic parlance, it loosely translates to Indian interests being given precedence in this region of the Indian Ocean. Having given such an undertaking to neighbour India as recently as last month and now entering a maritime cooperation agreement with its regional archrival is unlikely to go unnoticed by big brother.
Further, India, which came to Sri Lanka’s rescue during the financial crisis, will understandably feel slighted, for although it pushed for finalisation of several large-scale projects, especially on energy and trade during the President’s visit there last month, the Lankan delegation pushed for more time to study the projects. However, such concern does not appear to be applicable to the Chinese, where 15 agreements were signed, sealed, and delivered with lightning speed.
Meanwhile, another potential point of contention stemming from the joint statement following the President’s visit to China is Sri Lanka openly committing to “oppose Taiwan’s independence in any form” and reaffirming Taiwan as an inalienable part of China’s territory. While such open commitment throwing non-alignment to the wind will not go down too well with the West led by the US, which continues to openly advocate Taiwanese independence, it raises more questions than answers on the NPP’s foreign policy orientation – or rather, the lack of it.
While the US remains Sri Lanka’s biggest export market, it appears that little or no consideration has been placed on the new incoming Trump administration, which is already embroiled in a fierce trade war with China, and its implications for an export-dependent nation like Sri Lanka. While the regime may have naïvely expected that visits to India and then China would equally appease both, by now realisation may have dawned that balancing the two is not going to be as easy a task as it may have initially anticipated. The task calls for astute diplomacy, which unfortunately seems to be in short supply.