With every one of the hundreds of opinion polls being conducted these days suggesting a photo finish between the main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the National People’s Power (NPP) at the 21 September Presidential Election, there are unmistakable signs of an imminent re-enactment of the high drama that engulfed the United States following its last Presidential Election in 2020.
The men in the fray back then – Republican Donald Trump seeking re-election for a second term and Democratic challenger Joe Biden – were neck and neck in the race for months and the final contest was no different. The final result, which is normally announced the day after polling, took almost a week to announce – a process that resulted in Biden being declared winner and a dissatisfied Trump hurling all sorts of abuse at his opponent in general and the electoral process itself in particular. He even went to the extent of labelling the election as being rigged, an allegation he is yet to withdraw and one that also got him politically roasted.
Such was his disdain for the process that Trump encouraged his supporters to lay siege to the Capitol Building two months after the election in order to prevent the counting of Electoral College votes to formalise Biden’s victory. The call resulted in thousands of Trump supporters storming the building, leading to utter chaos and multiple fatalities. It also attracted the wrath of the American State, resulting in numerous lawsuits against him that continue to play out in courts to date.
The Trump-induced siege succeeded to the extent that it prevented certification of the final election results on 6 January 2021, thereby exacerbating the electoral crisis at the time. Subsequent investigations found Trump complicit in an attempt to overturn the election result, which was not without consequence either, attracting yet another barrage of lawsuits.
Sri Lanka came pretty close to a siege on its own Parliament when radical elements that had hijacked the peaceful ‘Aragalaya’ in 2022 decided to march on to the Parliament Complex, having previously overrun the Presidential Secretariat and Prime Minister’s office. However, they were stopped in their tracks by the armed forces acting on orders from the top. With that incident effectively drawing the curtain on the months-long ‘Aragalaya,’ it has taken the country two years and two months since to get to an election.
Accordingly, this coming 21 September will be the first time the country goes to the polls after the historic events of the ‘Aragalaya’ in 2022, and, predictably, the people’s desire for change seems no less palpable. It is also the first election since independence where the two main parties that have dominated the Sri Lankan political landscape and held power alternatively have been consigned to the status of irrelevance. Considering the two frontrunners at this juncture, this election will therefore likely spawn a president from a new political entity for the first time, signifying the advent of a fresh chapter in local politics.
Despite some 1,000 plus election law violations being reported thus far, campaigning has largely been peaceful, which is praiseworthy given the fierce competition and charged-up emotions among party faithful. Indications are that the status quo will prevail up to election day. However, the big question is whether the peace will continue to hold beyond that day, given the increasing likelihood of a 2020 American-style outcome.
Given the high stakes and tendency for emotions to run high, it is incumbent upon all candidates to call on their supporters to act with restraint even in the face of provocation. Sri Lanka, like its regional peers Pakistan and Bangladesh, is not immune to external influences and actors waiting on the fringes to execute their agendas. Therefore, whatever the final outcome, Sri Lanka needs to be on high alert and wary of conspirators waiting to take advantage of any potential volatile situation.
The possibility of such a scenario was brought to the limelight by a revelation by a Member of Parliament on nationwide live television last week. The MP described in detail an alleged plan in the works to stifle the announcement of the final election result. The bombshell revelation by MP Wimal Weerawansa last Monday, which to date mysteriously remains unchallenged by any political or State authority, is all the more reason for the authorities to err on the side of caution. To add further credibility to the MP’s claim, almost days later a video went viral on social media where supporters of the NPP are seen ‘cautioning’ members of other parties to be “watchful after the 22nd”.
According to Weerawansa, if no candidate is able to secure 50% plus one and counting extends to the second preference, there will be the inevitable allegations of fraud, thus preventing a certain candidate from winning. The conspirators will then use this allegation to disrupt further counting, compromising the entire process. It is indeed cause for concern as to why the MP has not been summoned by Police and a statement obtained given the severity of the allegation made on live TV.
Further, the incumbent President, who is also a candidate at the upcoming poll, has not helped the cause by adding fuel to the fire in calling on supporters of his rival, the SJB candidate and his former deputy, to instead consider voting for the NPP candidate, “as the latter has a better chance”. As is to be expected, the unsolicited exhortation has raised a hornet’s nest with SJB supporters turning on the President.
But it appears that Ranil Wickremesinghe may have involuntarily sealed his own fate, with his core support base frowning on the statement urging the traditionally conservative right-of-centre supporters to extend support to a Marxist candidate. The adverse repercussions of such a drastic stance at this late stage in the race could prove to be costly and Wickremesinghe may rue his chances come the 21st.
Following the President’s unprecedented statement, the latest pole-vaulter to his camp, MP Arundika Fernando echoed the call on Friday (6), leading to heightened tensions between the two camps. Whether the creation of such animosity at this critical stage of the race would be of benefit to a particular candidate is to be seen, but what is obvious is that it would not be so to a nation struggling to reestablish its democratic credentials.
The fact that the Police Department is yet without a designated head following the President’s refusal to appoint an acting IGP, claiming his ‘candidate’ status prevents him from doing so, is not very reassuring either, given Weerawansa’s explosive disclosure and law enforcement turning a deaf ear to it. After all, the public is at least entitled to learn if there is any merit to the claim. Interestingly, the President’s candidate status was no bar to appoint a replacement Governor for the Uva Province in less than 24 hours after the resignation of the previous Governor.
Proud as the President might be in overseeing an election primarily based on economic issues, transcending for a change the somewhat traditional issues based around race, religion, and caste, one cannot help but wonder whether the constrained economic circumstances under which the election is being held could not have been alleviated further. This concern stems from the President’s view as reported in the media that good governance comes second on his agenda; the economy taking precedence.
For most students of politics, it appears that the President may have got his priorities wrong for the simple reason that economic stability is in fact a primary byproduct of good governance, and not the other way around. It also explains the disregard for the good governance ethos such as falling in line with court rulings and even election laws, both of which are routinely glossed over.
It will be recalled that at the height of the economic crisis, the only thing that people demanded was good governance; also described as system change. While all that would now count as water under the bridge, the need of the hour is for heightened vigilance, enabling the will of the people to be accurately reflected through their franchise.