:

• CEB forecasts substantial increase in power demand; emergency power likely to fill gap
• Renewable energy, especially solar power, to help meet increasing demand for power
• Country not facing an immediate power crisis, not expecting extreme weather: Siyambalapitiya

As Sri Lanka braces for a projected 5.2% increase in electricity demand in 2025, concerns are mounting about the country’s ability to meet this surge in energy requirements, particularly during the upcoming dry season.

With the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) forecasting a substantial rise in demand, the question arises whether the island nation can avoid relying on emergency power purchases to fill the gap, especially when hydropower generation is typically at its lowest during the dry season.

Sri Lanka’s dry season is characterised by lower rainfall and higher temperatures. During this period, hydropower generation, which historically contributes a significant portion of the country’s electricity, faces a decline due to reduced water levels in reservoirs.

The average rainfall during this period drops significantly, especially in the southwestern and central parts of the island, which impacts water inflows to hydroelectric plants. This is expected to put additional strain on the power grid due to reduced rainfall and lower hydropower generation, a recurring challenge in Sri Lanka’s energy history.

Over the years, this seasonal variability has been a key factor in energy shortages, often forcing the country to rely on thermal power generation or even emergency power purchases to meet peak demand.

Projected energy demand

Sri Lanka’s electricity demand for 2025 is expected to rise to 17,553 GWh, a 5.2% increase over the 2024 estimate of 16,685 GWh. This growth is driven by economic expansion and increasing consumption across various sectors, including residential, industrial, and commercial. 

While the growth in demand is substantial, the ability of the country’s power generation system to keep up with this demand, particularly through renewable sources, remains a critical concern.

In a letter dated 17 December 2024, submitted to the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL), the CEB highlighted the expected increase in electricity demand and the contribution of Non-Conventional Renewable Energy (NCRE) sources in 2025.

The letter, signed by CEB Deputy General Manager Eng. K.V.S.M. Kudaligama, provided a detailed analysis of the country’s projected electricity requirements. “The electricity demand is forecast to rise to 17,553 GWh in 2025, reflecting a 5.2% increase from 2024,” the letter states. “This projection is based on a correlation factor of 1.2 between GDP growth and electricity demand.”

To meet this increasing demand, Sri Lanka is relying heavily on renewable energy sources, especially solar power. The CEB has outlined its plan to expand solar capacity, both through ground-mounted and rooftop solar installations. 

Accordingly, ground-mounted solar capacity is expected to increase by 101 MW, bringing the total to 267 MW by the end of 2025, while rooftop solar installations are expected to contribute 300 MW. Despite these increases, the contribution of renewable energy, particularly from solar and wind, may not be sufficient to cover the entire demand, especially during critical periods.

The dry season

A significant concern for Sri Lanka’s energy system is the dry season. Hydropower generation is particularly vulnerable during these months and the CEB has already flagged this as a potential issue for 2025.

However, speaking to The Sunday Morning, CEB Chairman Dr. Tilak Siyambalapitiya stressed that the country was not facing an immediate crisis.

He said: “The current hydropower storage is at the usual status, similar to previous years, and we don’t expect an extreme weather situation. We expect rains to arrive in May or June.”

Another senior official attached to the CEB, who wished to remain anonymous, said: “Most of the hydropower reservoirs are full and the total hydro capacity is around 80%. Therefore, there won’t be a major reduction in hydropower unless there is a severe drought condition during the dry season.”

However, the projections suggest that Sri Lanka could face a shortfall of 13,650.1 GWh in 2025 when comparing total electricity demand to the expected generation from renewable sources.

This shortfall, primarily driven by the reduced contribution of hydropower, is especially concerning for the dry season when demand peaks. While renewable energy sources such as solar and wind are expected to contribute a total of 3,902.9 GWh, these sources alone will not be able to meet the required demand, particularly when hydropower generation is low and intermittent.

The dry season presents a double challenge: reduced hydropower output and the variability of solar and wind energy. While solar energy is expected to generate a significant amount of electricity, its production fluctuates based on sunlight and it cannot consistently meet peak demand. 

Wind energy, too, is intermittent and will not fully offset the reduction in hydropower generation. As a result, Sri Lanka may face a serious gap between electricity supply and demand during these months.

The need for emergency power

Given the anticipated shortfall in electricity generation, the key question remains: will Sri Lanka require emergency power to meet its needs in 2025?

The CEB’s projections indicate that the country will likely need to rely on thermal power generation to bridge the gap, especially during the dry season. Thermal power, while capable of providing a stable and consistent supply of electricity, is far more expensive than renewable energy, and the increased reliance on thermal generation could lead to higher electricity costs.

Thermal power plants, including the Lakvijaya units and thermal facilities of Independent Power Producers (IPP), are expected to play a crucial role in meeting the energy shortfall. For example, in March and August, thermal generation is forecast to be high, reaching 942.5 GWh in March and 681.2 GWh in September. These plants are expected to generate a significant portion of the required electricity during the dry season when hydropower and renewable sources fall short.

Nevertheless, the CEB has denied the need for emergency power purchases, despite the projected shortfall that typically suggests that this option may be necessary, particularly during periods of high demand when domestic generation is insufficient.

Responding to questions about the potential need for emergency power, Dr. Siyambalapitiya said: “There are no plans to purchase emergency power and there will be no requirement as there is no power shortage.”

While the CEB has stressed that it does not currently anticipate a need for emergency power purchases, the data suggests otherwise. The shortfall in renewable energy generation, particularly during the dry season, combined with the expected increase in electricity demand, suggest that the reliance on thermal power alone may not be enough to cover the entire shortfall, especially during the most critical months.

Nevertheless, as explained by a senior engineer attached to the CEB, the challenges of meeting peak demand are most pronounced during the dry season. During this period, electricity demand typically peaks due to increased consumption, driven by factors such as higher temperatures and increased use of air conditioning. 

At the same time, hydropower generation tends to decline, and solar and wind energy cannot fully make up for the loss in generation. The resulting gap in supply will need to be filled with thermal power or, if necessary, emergency power.

Box

Barge plant in Colombo under review

The future of Sri Lanka’s 60 MW barge-mounted power plant at Colombo Port, scheduled for retirement in 2026, is currently under review as the plant awaits approval from international regulatory bodies.

As reliably learnt by The Sunday Morning, the crucial decision on whether the plant will undergo maintenance will be made following a series of inspections planned for this year.

A senior official attached to the CEB’s Generation Division, who wished to remain anonymous, told The Sunday Morning that these inspections would play a key role in determining whether the plant would continue to operate or be decommissioned earlier than expected.

The barge-mounted power plant is an important asset in the country’s power generation system and its continued operation or potential retirement will be influenced by the results of these evaluations.

According to the CEB Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan for 2023-2042, the decision to extend the retirement of the 4x15.6 MW barge-mounted power plant until the end of 2026 will depend on the costs of any necessary refurbishments and the potential benefits of keeping it operational beyond its scheduled retirement.

The plant is part of the CEB’s wider thermal power generation capacity, which totals 1,554 MW. This includes the 900 MW Lakvijaya coal power plant, 195 MW Kelanitissa gas turbines, 165 MW Kelanitissa combined cycle plant, 160 MW Sapugaskanda diesel power plants, 27 MW Uthuru Janani diesel power plant, and 50 MW from containerised emergency power plants.

The barge-mounted power plant, acquired by the CEB in 2015, is equipped with four 15.6 MW Mitsui-MAN B&W 12K50MC-S two-stroke diesel engines. This is the only plant in the CEB’s fleet that uses two-stroke diesel engines. 

The plant generates electricity at 11 kV, which is stepped up to 220 kV and transmitted to the Kelanitissa 220 kV Grid Substation. It uses heavy fuel oil purchased from the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation and the operational cost is Rs. 22.57 per kWh, which is among the lowest of the CEB’s thermal power plants.

As part of its retirement planning, the CEB is closely monitoring the condition of its existing thermal power plants, with decisions on retirements based on the plants’ operational status and the progress of new power plant projects. 

The scheduled retirements for key CEB-owned plants include the KPS Frame 5 GTs in 2024, the KPS GT7 in 2026, Sapugaskanda PS A (four units) and Sapugaskanda PS B (eight units) in 2026, and the barge-mounted power plant in 2025. 

Given the ongoing dry season, which has strained power generation, the decision on the barge-mounted power plant’s future will play a crucial role in ensuring energy stability for Sri Lanka.