Even though Sri Lanka’s political landscape underwent a dramatic change on 21 September with the election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake as President and the unceremonious exit of the old guard thereafter, there are increasing signs of the envisaged change being diluted at the upcoming General Elections next month.
It is no secret that the majority of the population heaved a collective sigh of relief when the old guard, primarily represented by Mahinda Rajapaksa on one flank and Ranil Wickremesinghe on the other, indicated their non-involvement in active politics after the historic Presidential Election where Dissanayake was elected President, albeit through a minority share of the vote. For his part, since assuming office a month ago, Dissanayake has not come off as someone taking on the role with gusto, matching the campaign momentum that led him to that exalted office, but as being increasingly more subdued.
Having had the luxury of making all kinds of allegations without much accountability while in Opposition, Dissanayake now has the unenviable task of standing in the same line of fire he used to take aim at during the 24 years he spent in Opposition. Having switched ends, Dissanayake now has to face the music as the country’s Executive President and not only deliver on the promises made on election platforms but also give credibility to the allegations made, since he now has all the State resources to do so at his disposal.
It is inevitable that reality hits home once on the other side and responsibility is thrust on his shoulders. He knows better than anyone that his future in that office is dependent upon proving the allegations made while in Opposition. If not, he too will be categorised as one who lied his way to office, joining the elite past presidents’ club of Sri Lanka. Such branding at this early stage will be suicidal for both his and his party’s political future, given the people’s collective allergy to that brand of politics.
Dissanayake’s seeming apprehension over what lies ahead appears to be seeping through his amiable demeanour despite his best efforts to shield it. His exhortation to the people to elect a ‘quality Parliament’ on 14 November, as opposed to quantity by way of seats for his party, has understandably taken many by surprise. It is indeed intriguing that despite D-day drawing near, Dissanayake has thus far refrained from calling on his supporters to provide him with a majority, leave alone two-thirds support. In fact, he has gone to great lengths to explain the perils of one-party dominated parliaments and how such unmitigated power destroyed regimes, including the last.
Having for the first time seen things in perspective from the other side of the divide, especially the dire state of the economy despite the veneer of recovery and normalcy propagated by his predecessor, Dissanayake appears to have realised that the promised utopia may not be that easy to deliver after all. A noticeably changed man, he appears to be all too aware of the challenges that lie ahead, including the resumption of external debt payments in just over three years from now and the urgent need to kickstart the economy. He knows that his predecessor’s strategy of shrinking the economy and showing impressive data has now run its course and the only way Sri Lanka can get back on track to be able to keep to its obligations in 2028 is through rapid economic expansion. Whether his National People’s Power (NPP) has the requisite expertise to deliver on that score, only time will tell.
It is in this backdrop that the old guard seems to be sensing something the rest of the country is not – as yet, at least. Renowned for their sharp political nose where half chances are grabbed with both hands, the two elder statesmen just three weeks ago signalled retirement, prompting Dissanayake to publicly boast that the last election had succeeded in doing the impossible in getting the duo to retire, which now appears to be premature.
As of last week, Mahinda Rajapaksa bluntly brushed aside talk of retirement, stating that “politicians never retire,” while his long-time buddy Ranil Wickremesinghe, who just weeks ago claimed he would not be seeking election to Parliament nor had any intention of coming in through the National List, issued a special statement calling on the people to place their trust in the ‘cylinder’ symbol – a last-minute political arrangement that was cobbled together for the Presidential Election, whose life expectancy has now been extended to cover the General Elections as well. In his statement Wickremesinghe has confirmed that the ‘cylinder team’ would contest the forthcoming election under ‘his leadership,’ notwithstanding the post-election statement to the contrary.
Incidentally, this is the only party that is yet to announce its prime ministerial candidate, with three of the top four parties at the last poll already having done so; the NPP naming Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) naming Sajith Premadasa, and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) naming Namal Rajapaksa. Following his ‘statement’ to the nation, the former President is making no bones about his political ambitions. He has emphasised that it is essential to re-elect the team that began the recovery process under his leadership two years ago, warning that failure to do so will spell disaster and push the country back to square one.
However, having decided to withdraw from the upcoming poll himself and his deputy Shehan Semasinghe also having decided to do the same along with many of his frontline members, it remains to be seen as to who the former President is referring to as the same team. A key point made by the ex-President in his not-so-subtle attempt at a comeback is that the economy must grow by a minimum of 1% year-on-year if the country is to be in a position to restart servicing its external debt from 2028.
Interestingly enough, it was the Wickremesinghe administration that arbitrarily advanced the repayment timeline to 2028 when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had proposed 2032 for that purpose. Although the matter largely slipped under the radar due to election noise at the time, the main Opposition did insist that the Wickremesinghe administration explain the rationale for this arbitrary and grossly unfavourable act on its part, but that call has fallen on deaf ears.
It is in this backdrop that Wickremesinghe’s sudden call to restore the status quo ante raises eyebrows. Following his statement last week, Wickremesinghe has made it known that it is he who will once again lead the ‘cylinder team’ at the upcoming Parliamentary Polls, despite the façade of taking a back seat after voters sent him a clear message last month. However, the absence of key players who were instrumental in shaping the restructuring effort at this election makes Wickremesinghe’s call ring hollow.
Nonetheless, a key factor that will impact the recovery effort is the brewing controversy over the ‘promised’ public sector salary hike, which the governing party is now attempting to distance itself from. Whichever of the two it decides to do, it is likely to spell trouble. On a more positive note, the absence of strikes, disruptions, and protests, with key union leaders contesting on the NPP ticket, will provide a rare period of industrial peace with no disruptive trade union action.
In a situation where fixing the economy is sine qua non in deciding whether Sri Lanka will thrive or perish during this presidency, the absence of a viable economic plan by the current leadership and the dire warning issued by the former President on the need for a competent team is not without merit. Therefore, unlike ever before, voters will be required to think carefully as to who best can deliver the economic solutions the country so desperately needs and grant those individuals the mandate that is required, irrespective of personal or party considerations.
Incidentally, Wickremesinghe’s ‘return’ coincided with Rajapaksa’s claim that he was nowhere near retirement. All this, tempered with Dissanayake’s lukewarm approach to seeking an overwhelming mandate for his own team, makes for an interesting turn of events at the upcoming polls. It appears that despite the whirlwind that planted Dissanayake in the presidential office, strong crosswinds in the interim seem to have countered what could have been an unprecedented parliamentary shake-up.