The last six years have been tough for Sri Lanka. We have seen the disastrous security failures of 2019 and the aftermath of mismanaging accountability pre/post incident, weathered the Covid-19 pandemic, survived the ensuing socio-political climate, was battered, bruised and brought to our knees by the worst economic crisis. We had just managed to get on track towards recovery, when the US President took a baseball bat to the world trade order and slapped a 44% tariff on Sri Lankan exports to the United States. 

If we are to learn anything from our experience over the last six years, it is that the world order is becoming more turbulent, there are more man-made and natural disruptions and crises, and that the type of predictability of what the future holds is no longer as reliable as it was before. It is safe to say that we are heading into a period where our national and regional vulnerabilities will decide the outcomes of futures, and being able to adapt and be resilient will be more important than ever.

Small States like Sri Lanka can cope with their vulnerability only by building their ability to both recover quickly from, and withstand, harmful external shocks. Associated with the flexibility of an economy, building resilience encapsulates the social, economic and environmental aspects of development. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka must move quickly to heal or at least address in a progressive manner long-standing domestic fault lines, which make our social fabric weak, thereby leaving our citizenry disunited and vulnerable to division and exploitation by internal and external forces. This is why it is high time that Sri Lanka develop a national resilience policy and a strategy. Such would need strong bi-partisan support and will need to be ‘sold’ to the populus which are already untrustful of the State. So, there is much to be done, and a holistic approach will be needed. Determining an appropriate blend of policies to achieve this desired result can be challenging and requires a strategic approach. Nevertheless, it is something that Sri Lanka should act to develop urgently.

First, we will need to take an honest reality check. Global power relations have returned as the main determinant of world politics. Regional geopolitical tensions and contests will likely increase. Self-help will be the main guiding principle. We must plan for global powers and ‘friendly nations’ to make decisions indifferent to our national interests. This includes some decisions and actions which may sometimes overtly or covertly be hostile to our national interest. If the course of action which US President Trump has initiated continues, at worst, we must prepare for a new age of global order, one which has our region smack-bang in the middle of a great power contest. Sri Lanka will have to give diplomacy, good governance and better statecraft, the kind of priority it has never given before, if we are to navigate the complex order which may come. Sri Lanka may need a complete overhaul to weather what may come. Already, our national foundational institutions and civilian/civic infrastructure have become fragile, complacent and corrupt, lacking the robustness and resilience capacity to face the unexpected. The same goes for our defence and security apparatus. Many Sri Lankans, oblivious to the realities of global relations, think that Sri Lanka is immune to international conflict and will likely not be impacted by conflicts among other nations. If the last six years have not woken them up from that slumber, what will? Other nations have harnessed the strength of their community to strengthen their democracies, economy and for defence and national security. It is high time Sri Lanka takes a lesson from such nations, especially small littoral one’s and wakes up, before it is too late. 

The safety and security of Sri Lanka is not a task that can be left to the government alone. The national education system, trade and industrial base, the active involvement of civil society, and Sri Lankans living overseas is necessary. Most importantly, there is a need for a better informed and engaged community, who is cognisant of what’s happening domestically on governance, and is tuned into regional dynamics and global geopolitics to become become the building blocks of our national resilience.