Yesterday, the Indian Navy test fired a K-4 ballistic missile from the newly inducted nuclear submarine INS Arighaat. The nuclear submarine, one the latest in the Indian fleet, was commissioned last August at Visakhapatnam, not too far from Sri Lanka’s Northern coast. With the successful test of the missile, which reportedly flew 3,500 km, India has signaled that its nuclear deterrence capacity has improved, and its ‘second strike’ capability is now tested. The test is also a validation of India’s rise as a tech-giant in the region. With two nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines in its fleet, and a third on the way, India is steadily reinforcing its capability to project power far beyond the shores of the Indian ocean and has now established its capability to respond to a nuclear threat effectively. 

While India flexes its muscle, others are zeroing in on the strategic importance of the Indian Ocean. Weeks before India carried out the missile test, Chinese research vessels entered the Indian Ocean and began to carry out surveys, only to return back through the Malacca Strait. Reports indicate that China plans to hand over to Cambodia’s Navy the facilities that it has modernized at the Ream Naval Base, including a deep-water pier able to accommodate large warships. It is also reported that People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) will also hand over two Type 056A missile corvettes to the Royal Cambodian Navy. Both vessels which arrived in Cambodia last year, have remained alongside, raising concerns of a possible PLAN forward operating base in the Gulf of Thailand, near the entryway into the Indian Ocean. It is reported that the Chinese Government has funded an extensive expansion and refurbishment of the Ream Naval Base over the past two years. This includes a new 300-metre-long deep-water pier, completed last year, which will enable larger warships, including aircraft carriers, to dock in the shallow waters around the base. With Sri Lanka’s moratorium on foreign research vessels surveying in its territorial waters, and its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) ending in December, one has to wonder if a resumption in visits by Chinese survey ships will once again trigger a diplomatic challenge for the island State? 

Meanwhile, French and British Naval forces are planning to patrol the Indo-Pacific region. The French Navy’s Carrier Strike Group is reportedly set to depart for long deployment to the Indo-Pacific. The mission ‘Clemenceau 25’ is expected to set sail this month (November). Recently, the Italian Aircraft carrier ITS Cavour and the frigate ITS Alpino traversed the Indian Ocean and the Pacific in a historic patrol. The planned excursions by the Italian and French naval might into the Indo-Pacific is indicative of renewed interest in Europe in the region, and signals the strategic importance of expanding trade connections with actors across the Indo-Pacific regions for the European power. In August, the new Labour Government confirmed that the United Kingdom’s Royal Navy Carrier Strike Group, led by HMS Prince of Wales, will be deployed to the Indo-Pacific region in 2025. This announcement reaffirms plans laid out under the previous Conservative Government, signaling UK’s desire to return back to Asia, beyond the Suez Canal. 

With so much interest in the Indo-Pacific region, and recent concerns about the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s increased activity in the Indian Ocean, and a range of counter measures being developed by India and likeminded countries, and with increased security concerns about non-State actor linked threats to maritime commerce emerging from West-Indian Ocean (Arabian Gulf, The Gulf of Aden) and the Red Sea, Sri Lanka’s ideals of keeping the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) a ‘Region of Peace’ seems increasingly a challenging proposition. Add to this equation coastal and maritime boundary-related issues, trafficking of narcotics, arms and people, renewed acts of Piracy off Somalia,  sanction evading petroleum transfer at sea, the ever present specter of Illegal, Unregulated and Unreported (IUU) fishing, marine pollution and the prospects of the Indian Ocean remaining a ‘Zone of Peace’ for long begins sound distant. 

Sri Lanka must revisit its diplomatic calculations and recalibrate its foreign policy stance to meet the emerging risk landscape for the Indian Ocean. The coming months will also bring with it foreign policy tests for the new Sri Lankan Government. It would be prudent to study the environment well, seek sound advice and prepare in advance for the many geopolitical ‘cyclones’ which the Indian Ocean and the island location will throw at it.