Soaring temperatures have prompted warnings from experts and spikes in energy demand, as Sri Lankans attempt to beat the heat.
According to the weather advisory issued by the Meteorological Department for Tuesday (25) for the Western, North-Western, Northern, North-Central, and Eastern Provinces and Monaragala, Ratnapura, and Hambantota Districts, the Heat Index, which is the temperature felt on the human body, was expected to increase up to ‘Caution’ levels (39-45 degrees Celsius). Caution levels are described as causing possible fatigue with prolonged exposure and activity, with continuing activity likely to result in heat cramps.
The Meteorological Department accordingly recommends the general public to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade at job sites, check up on the elderly and the sick, never leave children unattended in vehicles, limit strenuous outdoor activities, find shade, stay hydrated, and wear lightweight and white or light-coloured clothing.
Precautions recommended for the vulnerable
Speaking to The Sunday Morning, University of Kelaniya Department of Public Health Senior Professor Chrishantha Abeysena identified small children, the elderly, pregnant mothers, and people with chronic diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, blood pressure, kidney disease, and those with psychiatric problems as the most vulnerable to adverse health outcomes due to the prevailing warm weather conditions.
“The increase in body temperature due to the constant heat can lead to dehydration, making it difficult for people to adapt to the temperature. This can lead to headaches, dizziness and confusion, and can even lead to death in cases of extreme dehydration,” he noted.
“In the case of people with diseases, the medicinal drugs they take can lead to dehydration, in addition to effects from the heat, making them more vulnerable,” he explained.
He also cautioned that in addition to consuming adequate quantities of water, people should try to avoid engaging in outdoor work and to immediately seek medical attention if symptoms of heat stroke were detected.
Human comfort affected
According to experts, the prevailing heat with windless conditions is expected to continue until the onset of the monsoon rains.
Department of Meteorology Director (Forecasting) Dr. Shiromani Jayawardena told The Sunday Morning that as per the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) definition, Sri Lanka was technically not experiencing a heatwave.
The WMO defines a heat wave as a period during which the daily maximum temperature exceeds the maximum normal temperature by 5 degrees Celsius for more than five consecutive days, the normal period being defined as 1961-1990.
“However, we have only recorded an increase of around 3 degrees Celsius, but not for five consecutive days. Therefore, this cannot be considered to be a heatwave as per the WMO definition. This is an extreme temperature where ‘human comfort’ is affected,” she explained, adding that this would continue until the monsoon arrived.
Advent of El Niño
As she explained, currently, Sri Lanka is undergoing the winter monsoon, which is the transition period between the end of the northeast monsoon and the beginning of the southwest monsoon. During this period, there is no predominant wind flow, being accompanied by a calm wind and with moisture contained in the atmosphere.
Therefore, when perspiration clings to the body without evaporating, the feeling temperature, which is the heat perceived by the human body, is greater than the environmental temperature.
Moreover, she noted that the anticipated rapid development of El Niño following La Niña had caused the North Indian Ocean where Sri Lanka was situated to become warmer, leading to the present heat.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide. They are coupled atmospheric ocean systems that originate in the tropical Pacific Ocean with unusually warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) episodes.
Scientists have forecasted that this year could mark the return of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is associated with warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and higher global temperatures.
A switch to El Niño is likely to bring warmer global temperatures along with it.
According to the WMO, the first ‘triple dip’ La Niña of the 21st century, which began in September 2020, is gradually weakening. Accordingly, the La Niña effect had been occurring for three consecutive years.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California, Los Angeles, said there was already a “dramatic transition” from La Niña to El Niño happening in the tropical Pacific, CNN reported. The likelihood of El Niño developing gradually increases from 15% in April-June, to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August, as per the WMO.
Jayawardena noted that in terms of Sri Lanka’s weather, El Niño could cause lower monsoon rainfall in the hill country areas or interior of the country and higher rainfall for the coastal area. However, rainfall would increase in October/November.
The WMO notes that a transition between El Niño and La Niña is not unusual as both are part of the same phenomenon called the El Niño/Southern Oscillation or ENSO, which swings between unusually warm and cold conditions over eastern and central tropical Pacific.
However, the warm and cold phases need not necessarily follow each other in quick succession, and are quite often separated by extended periods (from a few months to a couple of years) of neutral situations, i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña.
Increase in power and water bills?
Sri Lanka has marked higher water and electricity usage amidst the prevailing warm weather conditions that have led to a surge in demand, as high temperatures drive businesses and households towards electricity-generated equipment amidst high utility bills.
Minister of Power and Energy Kanchana Wijesekera last week noted on Twitter that the highest energy demand in recent times had been recorded on 19 April. He noted that a net generation of 49.53 GWh had been required to fulfil the electricity demand for the day. Given the actual demand recorded early the following morning, the Minister noted that an estimated energy demand for the day would exceed 50 GWh.
Speaking to The Sunday Morning, Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) Spokesperson Additional General Manager (Generation) Dhammika Navaratne said that while consumption and daily generation had increased during April, it was expected to decrease with the rains towards the end of April. “Therefore, while it is difficult to say precisely, there was a period when there was an increase in April. But if there are rains, this demand can be reduced.”
He also noted that the CEB’s ‘peak power’ had also increased. “Generation peaks at 7 p.m. each day. During this month, the CEB experienced the highest ‘peak time’ power generation for this year. Although there is no significant increase, there has been an increase in daily power generation for this month.”
He further noted that an increase in consumption was natural for the months of March-April: “Historically, due to the increased heat during March-April, there is increased usage of air conditioning and fans, so electricity demand rises. This is typical for this period every year.”
However, he opined that demand would not increase beyond this: “We don’t anticipate a further increase in electricity demand; we are expecting usage to drop, in addition to this we are also expecting that rainy weather will return, which will enable us to manage with hydropower.”
Meanwhile, National Water Supply and Drainage Board (NWSDB) General Manager Wasantha Illangasinghe said that there had been around a 5% increase in consumption in April compared to January. “We have noticed that water supply finishes quickly at distribution points with limited water and there are signs of increased consumption. Regardless, we release the full amount of water we have.”
She also noted that while there was no issue with the western region, there had been reports of shortages from the southern region, i.e. Hambantota.