• CEB looking at procuring additional power to meet drought

With Sri Lanka anticipating a severe drought in the months ahead, concerns have arisen regarding the readiness of the State-run Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) to counter potential negative impacts on Sri Lanka’s power generation.

As learnt by The Sunday Morning, the CEB is making efforts to procure high-cost supplementary power, in addition to emergency power acquired last year, to address any potential deficit resulting from the forecasted severe drought conditions affecting hydropower reservoirs.

This situation is not unfamiliar, as the CEB has faced criticism for hindering the diversification of the local power generation landscape.

Despite obtaining Cabinet approval for the purchase of expensive supplementary power early last year, the urgency for emergency power shifted priorities, causing delays in acquiring supplementary power. 

In response to immediate electricity supply gaps, the CEB quickly acquired 120 MW of emergency power from Ace Power Embilipitiya (100 MW) and Matara (20 MW). The urgency arose due to the depletion of the Samanalawewa Reservoir, linked to the now-dried-up Udawalawe Reservoir, necessitating Cabinet approval to ensure uninterrupted power supply to the Southern Province.

With emergency power procurements now completed, the CEB is gradually working to secure additional power to meet any possible drought.

Supplementary power procurement

CEB Chairman Nalinda Ilangakoon confirmed the closure of Expressions of Interest (EOIs) for supplementary power procurement last September, attempting to portray a positive outlook. 

He highlighted Cabinet approval for purchasing electricity from Independent Power Producers (IPPs), emphasising on proactive measures and the need for scientific management of existing resources to meet demand, including the purchase of supplementary power – a process that has already commenced.

Commenting further on hydropower, Ilangakoon stated that decisions regarding its management were crucial and could not be made solely by the board. They must be made collectively with the Water Board and Irrigation Department, with water release decisions being based on scientific criteria.

“The CEB is obliged to provide uninterrupted power supply and, therefore, existing resources will be managed to meet the demand in a scientific way. One such measure is the purchase of supplementary power – a process that has already commenced but has not yet been completed,” he said.

Electricity demand

According to CEB statistics, nearly 60% of Sri Lanka’s daily electricity demand is fulfilled by hydropower generation and coal contributes around 14%, while thermal oil power generation stood at around 3% last week. With Sri Lanka’s hydropower reservoirs currently capable of meeting its present energy requirements, consumers can expect a downward revision of electricity tariffs for the first quarter of the new year.

The total storage capacity of hydropower reservoirs stands at over 90%, with the capacities of some reservoirs reaching 100%.

CEB Spokesman Deputy General Manager Noel Priyantha, when contacted, stated that the CEB had commenced the new year with overfilled hydropower reservoirs, totaling 1,200 GWh. He noted that heavy rain in 2023 had filled almost all reservoirs, providing a positive outlook despite the anticipated drought.

Regarding the upcoming drought forecasted by the Meteorology Department, Priyantha emphasised that since the reservoir capacities reached maximum levels, water management would be handled accordingly by water committees comprising the CEB, Water Board, and agriculture sector representatives. He stressed that the CEB was currently in good financial standing, providing hope for the upcoming year.

Meeting the demand

At the end of last year, the deficit was reported to be around 300 MW. The current annual energy demand of the country is approximately 15,000 GWh, expected to grow at a rate of 5.5% annually in the coming years.

To meet the forecasted electricity demand of 22,501 GWh by 2025, the present installed capacity of 4,217 MW must be increased up to 6,966 MW by 2025. As per the present medium-term power generation plan, it appears that a capacity of 2,749 MW must be added to the system to cater to the demand by 2025.

This year, authorities have forecasted a reduction in rainfall, especially in April, leading to potential restrictions on hydropower generation. To mitigate this, the CEB recommended adding around 100 MW to the national grid on a supplementary basis.

Climate outlook

The Seasonal Forecast Division of the Department of Meteorology issued predictions for January-March 2024, indicating a potential for near or slightly above normal rainfall in the Eastern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Central, and Uva Provinces. Conversely, below-normal rainfall is expected in other areas during the January to March 2024 season.

The climate outlook for this period is based on expert assessments of global climate conditions influencing South Asian weather and forecasts from various climate models. There is a 62% chance of El Niño continuing through April-June 2024, gradually decreasing thereafter. El Niño is expected to weaken rapidly during the boreal winter and spring of 2024, with ENSO-neutral conditions becoming more likely in April-June.

Most global climate models suggest a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event easing in January. The Meteorological Department considers regional and global factors, as well as intraseasonal variability, which can impact rainfall and temperature patterns in Sri Lanka.

Power deficit calculation

In contrast, some experts have raised questions about the methodology applied by the CEB to calculate the country’s power deficit. According to CEB statistics, around 70% of the energy requirement of the country is currently provided by thermal power (coal and oil), with the remainder coming from hydropower and a very small quantity from wind power.

Due to the lack of proper power plants, the country’s entire electricity system is dependent on the Norochcholai Power Plant. Engineers warn that the situation will be dire in the event of a breakdown in that power plant. According to the CEB’s plan, three power plants (70 MW, 100 MW, and 150 MW) were proposed to meet the demand from 2018 until major power plants are implemented.

According to the CEB, the total hydropower generation connected to the national grid was only 20.23% out of the total generation as of Thursday (4) evening, with 44.76% supported by thermal oil and the rest by thermal coal. 

However, experts question why the CEB opts for emergency power only when there is a shortage.

Speaking to The Sunday Morning, a senior engineer at CEB stressed that resorting to emergency power was inevitable to avoid possible power cuts. He stated that last year the CEB had to opt for emergency power to fill the energy deficit, citing uncertainties about receiving the same quantity of rainfall as the previous year.

As reported by The Sunday Morning, all major power plants expected from 2015 as per the generation plan of 2013 have been cancelled. These included 1x105 MW gas turbine, 2x250 MW Trincomalee Coal Power Plant, and coal power plants each of 300 MW from 2021, 2022, and 2023. However, during that time, an official attached to the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) highlighted that the CEB had purchased emergency power in 2016, 2017, and 2018 of 155 MW, 180 MW, and 320 MW, respectively.

Since the commissioning of the Norochcholai Power Plant in 2014 and the addition of 60 MW of barge-mounted power in Colombo in 2015, no new power plants have been commissioned. In the years 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019, not a single megawatt of energy has been added to the system, exacerbating the crisis during that period.