• Economic stability, career prospects, and migration are key deciding factors
• Gap between birth rate and death rate reducing

According to the Key Economic Indicators published by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), the mid-year population of Sri Lanka as of 2022 stood at 22,181,000, reflecting a crude birth rate of 12.4 per 1,000 persons. The DCS also recorded the age distribution of the country’s citizens as 5,603,000 for 0-14 years, 14,840,000 for 15-64 years, and 1,738,000 for 65 years and over.

In early December 2023, Minister of Education Dr. Susil Premajayantha raised concerns based on statistics issued by the Ministry of Health’s Family Health Bureau regarding the decrease in Sri Lanka’s annual birth rate.

Following this statement, University of Colombo Professor Emeritus (Demography) W. Indralal de Silva, who is a drafting member of national policies at the Ministry of Social Empowerment and Welfare, told The Sunday Morning that Sri Lanka’s population had faced a significant decline.

“Looking at the statistics of 10 years, we can observe a 25% drop in Sri Lanka’s birth rate. The number of births that took place in Sri Lanka in 2022 in comparison to 2013 has decreased by nearly 90,000. The gap between the number of births and the number of deaths has reduced over the years,” Prof. de Silva elaborated.

He added that the population change could adversely affect the country’s economic growth, especially given the increased migration that is taking place.

Prof. de Silva’s sentiments were underscored by the Mid-Year Population statement released by the DCS in September 2023 – during the period of July 2012-June 2013 there had been 352,450 registered births and during July 2013-June 2014, the number of registered births had increased from 352,450 to 361,800.

Since then the number of registered births has gradually decreased every year and from July 2022 to June 2023, registered births were at 268,920. Furthermore, the number of registered deaths from July 2012 to June 2013 was 125,626 and between July 2022 and June 2023, there had been a gradual growth to 190,600.

According to data from the Department of Immigration and Emigration, between July 2015 to June 2018 and July 2020 to June 2021, inward migration had been higher than outward migration and during the other periods, outward migration had been higher than inward migration after the last population census.

Net migration during July 2021 to June 2022 had been 85,572 and 222,715 during July 2022 to June 2023.

The average annual population in 2023 had decreased by 144,395 compared to 2022, given the drop in births, increase in deaths, and rise in the numbers leaving the country.

Public sentiment

With the statistics providing clear insights, The Sunday Morning spoke to a few families for their views.

“I want to have children of my own someday, but given the economic conditions of the country and where I stand in my career path at present, my husband and I have decided to take a few more years to have a child,” a civil society worker in her late 30s told The Sunday Morning.

She added that the organisation she worked for required her to travel extensively and with her husband engaged in an equally-demanding career, they had to allow personal and career growth first, which would ensure a financially-stable environment before starting a family.

“Bringing a child into this world is not getting any easier; the costs involved in medical visits and nutritional needs to personal care needs for the mother and baby have skyrocketed. When you are on your own and have to manage your expenses for a household in this economy, bringing a child into this world becomes a financial burden unless one has sufficient savings,” she explained.

Shammi, a retail shop owner in his late 30s with two children, said: “We decided to have our second child in 2023, after navigating our way out of the pandemic and then the ‘Aragalaya’. We were hopeful that things would improve economically and did not anticipate the tax increases in 2024, which has now burdened us. Our eldest daughter is in Grade 3 and her school supplies alone cost quite a lot. With the family growing, we are now looking to move into a better environment, but that too is proving to be a challenge.”

He said he and his family would have to wait this difficult period out and hope for things to improve in the country: “We cannot go overseas as we do not have parental support to look after our kids. I used to run this shop with my wife, but I am currently working alone, giving her the time to be at home with the little one. Whoever decides to have children now should plan, especially those who want to be independent and are too far away from their immediate families. Sacrifices need to be made by both husband and wife to bring up children.”

With many families struggling to support their children amid dire economic conditions, Family Health Officers’ Association Chairperson Devika Kodituwakku however said that many families were also opting to adopt children. 

“We have observed a considerable increase in the number of children being adopted during many of our field visits. This is a positive trend, given that most of these children are then afforded a better quality of life and will receive the required nutrition and education they need.”

World Population Prospects 2022

The ‘World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results’ published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) focuses on 10 key messages based on the latest round of global population estimates and projections by the UN:

1. The world’s population continues to grow, but the pace of growth is slowing down

2. Policies aimed at reducing fertility will have little immediate impact on the pace of global growth

3. Rapid population growth is both a cause and a consequence of slow progress in development

4. While life expectancy continues to increase globally, large disparities remain

5. A rising share of population in the working ages can help boost economic growth per capita

6. The population of older persons is increasing both in numbers and as a share of the total

7. More and more countries have begun to experience population decline

8. International migration is having important impacts on population trends for some countries

9. The Covid-19 pandemic has affected all three components of population change

10. Population data provide critical information for use in development planning

The ‘2022 Revision of World Population Prospects’ presented population estimates from 1950 to the present for 237 countries or areas, underpinning by analyses of historical demographic trends. This latest assessment considers the results of 1,758 national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2022, as well as information from vital registration systems and from 2,890 nationally-representative sample surveys.

According to the projections, Sri Lanka’s current annual growth rate of 0.35% is projected to come to a standstill by around 2035. After this, the population is expected to slowly start to decrease.