As the world welcomes 2024 amidst unprecedented and dramatically-contrasting circumstances depending on where you happen to be on the planet, for most Sri Lankans the new year is being welcomed with a palpable sense of apprehension and foreboding for the simple reason that most citizens are aware of the reality that the year ahead will define their future as well as that of this country.

Already fatigued by a seemingly-unending litany of economic woes, the start to the new year could not be any worse for the citizenry of this nation, with a tsunami of VAT hike-driven price increases covering most essential items set to engulf them as of midnight tonight. The deep-rooted concerns over the rising cost of living are however tempered by the anticipated political developments likely to take place during the course of the year, with at least one major election slated for the latter part of the year. Thereby people appear to be saving their protests and frustration for the ballot, judging by the degree of anticipation of a poll.

However, even 2023 was supposed to be an election year given the non-existence of a people’s mandate at every level of governance in the country, with no people’s representation at either Local Government or provincial level and serious questions over the validity of the mandate of the current Parliament in light of the resignations of the former President, Prime Minister, and Cabinet last year and the Parliament-appointed current President being someone who was outright rejected by the people at the last poll. No doubt a basket case for democratic governance – the ramifications of which continue to be ignored by the powers that be. 

Given the current political environment, it would no doubt be politically expedient for those holding office to drag the show for as long as possible, but the question is, at what cost to the nation? By cost we do not mean the actual cost of conducting a poll but, in economic parlance, the opportunity cost of not conducting one when circumstances so warrant. 

While the regime’s stock excuse for the non-conducting of polls thus far has been the cost involved in conducting same, it is argued that the opportunity cost of not doing so is very much greater as it deprives the Government of legitimacy and its attendant benefits – most notably the comfort sought by the donor community, which can only be provided by an administration that enjoys a valid mandate from people it claims to represent. 

Even though the regime is taking great pains to show that the absence of a valid mandate – in this case at all levels of governance – has no impact on the recovery effort, the reality is otherwise, as clearly seen in the speed of the recovery process and insistence of the IMF on adherence to every minute detail of the bailout programme. The fact that legitimacy matters was reflected in a statement made by the Governor of the Central Bank last week, where he emphasised that the IMF programme spread over the next four years should not be disrupted for any reason. 

It is obvious that even though the Governor did not spell it out, the main reason for that expression of concern was the fate of the 16 past IMF interventions, none of which were ever completed owing to midway regime change. It is for this reason that it would have made sense for a new democratically-elected administration to engage with the IMF and ensure it sees through the four-year programme rather than leaving it to an interim administration whose tenure will likely end next year.

With 2024 being a crucial election year and most political parties in the fray offering widely-differing views on the IMF programme, including a significant section of MPs representing the governing party, and even the main Opposition, which has openly stated that it would seek to renegotiate its terms and conditions, the Central Bank Governor’s concerns are certainly legitimate and portends a return to square one for the 17th time. It is for this reason – the ramifications involved in the Governor’s appeal – that one cannot dismiss offhand the argument that both legitimacy and tenure of government are of vital importance to the bailout programme in particular and the economic recovery effort in general.

In a situation as dire as that faced by Sri Lanka, and where confidence-building should ideally be the name of the game, all recovery efforts should essentially be anchored around legitimate and representative democratic governance. It is this fundamental fact that those in the fray seeking public office at the hustings next year as well as those currently holding office should take due cognisance of if they are serious about piloting this nation out of perennial economic turbulence. That being said, the onus will ultimately fall on the people, the electors, to choose their own destiny – hopefully with better insight and wisdom than in the past.

Whichever way one looks at it, 2024 is bound for the history books in more ways than one, for other than being the year that can potentially do one of two things – make or break this nation – it will also be regarded as the year in which Sri Lankan electors came of age by exercising their civic duty in a relatively more conscientious manner. 

The clearest indicator of this evolutionary process was the unceremonious exit of the former President, Prime Minister, and Cabinet in the face of immense and unrelenting people power. That those same people will resort to the ballot to complete the change they desired is now a foregone conclusion and all the more reason for the political shenanigans of the powers that be.

Whoever seeks to preside over the destinies of this nation onward of 2024 must realise that Sri Lanka needs a clean break from the failed political legacy of the past 75 years that has essentially been built around benevolent and sycophantic politics. It is therefore refreshing that a growing number of the youth population is openly advocating ditching the self-destructive legacy politics rooted in dynastic and sycophantic persuasions in favour of a modern, merit-based governance and political system. 

For all intents and purposes, the old guard that has consistently refused to see the writing on the wall will be presented a second opportunity come 2024 to either pass on the baton to the younger generation that has consistently been demanding change or face the prospect of ignominy. 

The latest data of the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) amply highlights the cause of disenchantment, with 60% of households reporting a decreased average monthly income in contrast to the ever-increasing cost of living, with a staggering 91% of households reporting increased expenditure for mere survival – and that is prior to the latest VAT hike. In addition, DCS data indicates that one in five households have fallen into debt owing to the crisis and 54% or half of all school-going kids have been affected by the crisis – staggering numbers by even our own standards.

As yet another tumultuous year comes to a close, the options before the nation to make the next one better than the last are few and far between, thanks to a system that is broken at every level – both by design and default. A system that is forcing the backbone of this nation – its youth – to seek greener pastures elsewhere. With choices being limited and the powers that be resorting to old tricks to escape obscurity, the people of this nation have one of two options: either set the course for a fresh start or merely reboot a failed system as in the past.