Last Friday’s (28 February) epic diplomatic meltdown in the White House between two close allies up until then has not only left the world aghast, but also raised serious concerns about its future, with the President of the United States repeatedly claiming during the fiery exchange of words with his Ukrainian counterpart that the outcome of the ill-fated meeting could, in fact, potentially trigger a third world war.
Since then, world leaders led by British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer have been desperately scrambling to prevent further escalation by playing the role of mediator. The unpleasant encounter has also resulted in the polarisation of powerful nations between the two. A most notable feature has been Europe, a staunch American ally for decades and lately a target of the Donald Trump administration for higher trade tariffs, lining up behind Ukraine while Russia, America’s foe for generations, appears to be cosying up to the White House or the other way around.
As of now, the single biggest beneficiary from last Friday’s Oval Office fiasco, at least by default, appears to be Russian President Vladimir Putin, who appears to have finally succeeded in driving a wedge between his bête noire and the White House, whose support since the start of the Russian invasion has been a thorn in the flesh. With Ukraine’s single biggest ally’s support now hanging in the balance, Putin is unlikely to waste time in getting what he wants.
The blistering encounter between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy turned out to be the opposite of what it was touted to be – a cordial meeting where an agreement was to be signed between the two leaders, granting the US access to Ukraine’s vast deposits of rare earth minerals in exchange for continued military support. But as with most things that Trump has been associated with since assuming office a second time, it did not take long for diplomatic cordiality to be replaced by aggression on the one part and stoic defence on the other, which obviously was unappreciated by the host, used to having things his way.
Having not only valiantly fought and stood his ground against Putin’s mighty Russian forces for over three years in a war the Russians expected to finish in three days, during the course of which he has also managed to keep his people united in the fight despite brazen efforts aimed at causing divisions, Zelenskyy, despite his youthful demeanour, is by no means a pushover, which Trump and company have now learnt the hard way. But if Trump and Co. decide to give Zelenskyy the cold shoulder in response to his ‘affront’ before the home audience, he may well have sealed the fate of his nation, unless the Europeans step up fast to fill the void.
Long used to the doctrine of ‘might is right,’ Trump, in recent weeks, has openly attempted to alter history by refusing to call Putin a dictator or acknowledge the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine, triggering the war three years ago. Instead, he has publicly called the democratically elected Zelenskyy a ‘dictator’ and insisted that it was Ukraine that started the war. It was in this backdrop that the beleaguered Ukrainian President made his way to the Oval Office, where Trump and his deputy J.D. Vance appeared to have been waiting in ambush to settle petty political scores rather than the war debts accrued to the US for its military supplies, as widely implied.
The cat seemed to jump out of the bag in this regard when Vice President Vance appeared to set the stage for a confrontation by remarking that Zelenskyy had got on to the ‘opposition’s campaign stage’ in Pennsylvania during the last Presidential Election campaign. President Trump then lent credibility to the claims of using the world stage to settle petty political scores by interjecting that the previous “stupid President” had provided Ukraine military assistance valued at $ 350 billion.
However, defence analysts have since rejected Trump’s estimate, putting the value of the military hardware at between $ 150-200 billion. With Ukraine agreeing to supply $ 500 billion worth of rare earth minerals as payment, the Americans would have been laughing all the way to the bank, but with Zelenskyy walking out without signing on the dotted line, that deal appears to be a non-starter for now.
Since taking office in January, Trump has managed to antagonise some of his country’s closest allies for decades, beginning with immediate neighbours Canada and Mexico following the unilateral implementation of punitive trade tariffs. As of last week, even the European Union has been dragged and dumped into the same basket despite desperate attempts by the British and French to stave off a similar crisis. Both the British Prime Minister as well as the French President called on Trump last week to attempt to maintain the status quo, at least for now. European leaders, including President Zelenskyy, are to meet in London today (2) in what has been billed as a crucial summit in the aftermath of the fiery Oval Office meltdown, with much at stake, not only for Ukraine but the rest of the world at large.
Given the profound changes in the global political environment since Trump took office in January, as well as the likely escalation of the conflict in Ukraine with Russia taking advantage of the US-Ukraine imbroglio, the Government of Sri Lanka must act fast to secure its own interests on behalf of the people of this nation. In a backdrop where nations increasingly appear to be taking sides, Sri Lanka must endeavour to maintain its non-aligned status that has served it well thus far.
Besides, due cognisance must be taken of the initial impact of the war in Ukraine, which had an adverse impact on our own economic crisis three years ago, with wheat prices going through the roof at a time when forex was scarce. While Sri Lanka’s national security interests must necessarily be top of the agenda for the Government in a rapidly evolving global security environment, it is also necessary to point out that national security should not only be viewed from a defence perspective.
It is of equal importance, as far as Sri Lanka is concerned, that its Government ensures the nation’s food and energy security, taking into consideration the impact of a potential escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, as a result of which both of these aspects could be adversely impacted. When the war began three years ago, its impact was felt through higher global wheat prices as well as that of crude oil and international shipping, leading to a cascading effect on the prices of imports.
For generations now, the staple diet of most Sri Lankans has revolved around rice or its alternative, bread, made out of wheat flour. Given the recent rice shortages and related price increases, many have had no choice but to switch to bread, purely for economic reasons, as a meal of rice and curry costs a lot more to prepare than a humble meal of bread and sambol that does not require cooking. However, both these meals require an imported input – wheat for bread and gas or some other fuel to cook rice.
The nation’s energy sector must also be made less dependent on costly imports – mainly petroleum, coal, and gas – and thus, more insulated from the vagaries of global events. While the recent power blackout has been attributed to an overload of renewable energy, the primary cause was identified as inadequate grid capacity to absorb the extra energy. While the Ceylon Electricity Board is notoriously famous for accommodating the ‘thermal mafia’ at the expense of clean energy, it is imperative for the Government to prioritise grid capacity growth to ensure energy security in an environment where thermal, coal, and LNG could be increasingly susceptible to global events, thus compromising national security.
Be that as it may, neither party, as at the time of writing, appears to be in the mood for reconciliation, with the White House demanding an apology and Zelenskyy firm in his response that there is nothing to apologise for – all the more reason to be prepared for any eventuality.