Sri Lanka is forecasted to exceed its highest record number of tourist arrivals recorded in 2018 (2.3 million) this year, and reach 2.8 million arrivals in 2026, First Capital Manager of Research, Ranjan Ranatunga said on Friday (17), at an event held in Colombo.
“We expect 2025 to be the best year for tourism with 2.5 million arrivals, which will surpass the 2.3 million arrivals recorded in 2018, which is considered as Sri Lanka’s highest record number of tourist arrivals within a year.”
“Following that, we expect tourist arrivals to reach 2.8 million by 2026,” Ranatunga said.
Sri Lanka recorded 2.05 million arrivals in 2024, a 38.07% year-on-year increase, data from the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA) shows.
Speaking at a panel discussion organized by First Capital in Colombo, John Keells Holdings PLC Deputy Chairperson Gihan Cooray said that Sri Lanka is yet to reach its full potential as a destination market.
“Sri Lanka is yet to reach its true potential in tourism. It's one of the lowest hanging fruits with the easiest multipliers. With the super targets set for each year, I see that the potential is far greater than that.”
He stated that Sri Lanka should be incentivising longer stays within the country, particularly in Colombo, by diversifying its tourism offerings and experiences within city limits, and beyond.
John Keells Holdings last year inaugurated two major infrastructure projects of its own within Colombo aimed at tourism within the city, namely the Cinnamon Life at City of Dreams Sri Lanka and TRI-ZEN projects.
“From thereon there needs to be destination market awareness creation, targeting markets beyond Indian out-bound travel, as nations like China far outperform India in its scale for yearly outbound travel.”
In 2023, China's outbound tourism market rebounded to a value of approximately $196.5 billion, reaffirming its position as the world's leading spender on international travel. This marked a partial recovery from pre-pandemic levels, as domestic tourism growth outpaced international travel.
Meanwhile, India’s outbound tourism market surged to $40 billion, exceeding its pre-COVID levels and highlighting a robust growth trajectory.
For Sri Lanka, India’s proximity and growing middle-class consumer base present a more accessible and sustainable opportunity, while China’s larger market offers high-value potential but is more susceptible to broader economic and geopolitical fluctuations.