Experts point out that Sri Lanka is undergoing a demographic shift, with changes in fertility, mortality, age structure, and migration creating socioeconomic challenges and opportunities that profoundly impact Sri Lanka’s development trajectory.
The population of a country is governed by the interaction of three demographic factors: fertility, mortality, and migration. Accordingly, changes in these dynamics pose both challenges and opportunities as Sri Lanka navigates its demographic transition in a context of a recovering economy.
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), in an issue brief titled ‘Population Dynamics and Sustainable Development: Low Fertility, Population Ageing, and Migration in Sri Lanka and its Implications for Development,’ notes that these trends are a direct result of the progress made in healthcare, education, and economic opportunities, which have contributed to improved living standards and longer life expectancy, leading to a decline in fertility and population ageing.
However, it points out that these trends are also occurring in a context of inequality, lower per capita income, and less developed institutions, which have far-reaching implications for Sri Lanka.
Fertility
According to the issue brief, recent mid-year population estimates of the Department of Census and Statistics indicate a total population of 22.037 million, compared to 20.359 million in 2012.
Despite this, the annual rate of population growth has been declining since 1953, remaining at an average annual growth rate of 1.1% during 1981-2012. This decline in the annual rate of population growth is attributed to declining birth rate, low death rate, and outward migration. The population is likely to peak around 24.8 million by 2050 before beginning to decline.
The key determinants of fertility decline are postponement in marriage and childbirth, childlessness, and rise in contraception and terminations, according to University of Colombo (UoC) Emeritus Professor of Demography W. Indralal De Silva.
“Sri Lanka has been witnessing a decline in fertility over the past several years. However, just after the Covid pandemic, we have observed a very unexpected and significant decline,” he told The Sunday Morning.
According to the statistics provided by Prof. De Silva, between 2019 and 2023, there was a steep decline in the number of live births reported in Sri Lanka. In 2019, there were 319,000 live births, which dropped to 247,900 in 2023 – an almost 20% decline. However, from 2015 to 2019, the drop in the total number of live births was only 5%, with 335,000 live births in 2015. Moreover, the crude birth rate has also declined notably.
Addressing the socioeconomic causes of the fertility decline, he explained the primary reason was Covid-19 and its multiple effects during 2020-2021, followed by the economic recession, which has led to inflation and the decline of real wages.
Elaborating on the impact of the economic crisis on fertility, he said: “Alongside the economic crisis, younger couples are observing that children are too costly, leading to them opting for no children or one child only. Simultaneously, there is a new trend where a sizeable proportion of young people are unwilling to get married.”
Further, he pointed out that the decline in marriages was increasingly visible, with nearly 300 divorce cases filed by lawyers every day before courts, in addition to increased separations. As such, Prof. De Silva noted that with young people observing such trends in society, they too were likely to move away from marriage.
Another key factor for fertility decline is the growth of induced or medical abortions for unwanted pregnancies. Prof. De Silva emphasised that while sexual behaviour had appeared to increase rather than drop, young people were avoiding conception or opting for medical abortion, in addition to a fairly large proportion of couples and unmarried young people using contraception. All this is in addition to the presence of subfertility as well.
The UNFPA notes that Sri Lanka has witnessed a marked decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), dropping from 5.3 children per woman in 1953 to an estimated 1.97 children per woman in 2023, which is below the replacement level of 2.1.
Mortality and changing age structure
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s Crude Death Rate has shown a spike in recent years from a rate of 6.7 deaths per 1,000 of the population in 2019 to a rate of 8.2 deaths per 1,000 of the population in 2023, according to the UNFPA.
Prof. De Silva pointed out that all indicators of mortality, measured through the total number of deaths or Crude Death Rate, were showing significant changes. In 2019, Sri Lanka reported 146,000 deaths, while 2023 saw 181,000 deaths, which is an increase of over 30% in the volume of deaths.
“One may argue that the higher volume of deaths is due to the Sri Lankan population ageing. However, population ageing in such a short period cannot contribute to this extent of increase in the total number of deaths. From over 30%, perhaps 5% could be attributed to ageing. The remainder is due to factors which are yet to be investigated.”
Accordingly, he pointed out that this issue was likely to have been exacerbated by the long-term health implications of pandemic-related matters, coupled with Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) afflicting the majority of the population aged 50 years or older – even before the pandemic – and the economic crisis.
The population age structure is transitioning with the ‘youth bulge’ and ‘population ageing’ phenomena, the UNFPA shows. Sri Lanka’s population is ageing rapidly, with one in four Sri Lankans projected to be over the age of 60 by 2041, a significant increase from the 12.4% reported in 2012.
According to the UNFPA, in 2023, the age dependency ratio was estimated to be 52 dependent persons for every 100 working age persons, of which 34 were child dependents (younger than 15 years) and 18 were old-age dependents (older than 64 years). Projections estimate that the total dependency ratio will grow significantly after 2041 due to a rapid increase in old-age dependency.
Coupled with declining fertility, rapid ageing of the population will exert greater demands on Sri Lanka’s social protection system in the coming years.
As UoC Emeritus Professor of Demography K.A.P. Siddhisena explained to The Sunday Morning, the ageing of the population poses several profound impacts on every aspect of life, especially as the health system, which is already challenged by resource constraints brought on by the economic crisis, is likely to face additional pressure due to rapid population ageing.
In previous research, Prof. Siddhisena has noted that the ageing of the population generates a series of social and economic implications which are mostly negative. He writes: “Although the demographic transitions that lead to the ageing process in developed countries was parallel with industrialisation and economic growth, Sri Lanka’s demographic transition and population ageing has occurred despite slow economic growth.
“Thus when we compare the ageing of the Sri Lankan population with that of developed countries, it is inevitable that the relative poverty associated with ageing in Sri Lanka creates special challenges.”
He points out that socially, with a diminishing trend of home-based support, care, and security, coupled with increasing life expectancy, the elderly population will be more vulnerable. Economically, income support for the extended retirement period is a significant challenge, with the ageing of the population posing serious problems in relation to adequate income for later life.
Prof. Siddhisena further highlighted the increased expenditure on pension schemes and long-term healthcare, alongside the ageing population becoming a burden to the working age population.
Migration
Sri Lanka’s demographic and economic landscape has also been profoundly affected by migration. The shrinking workforce stemming from declining birth rates and outmigration of workers hinder productivity and affect Sri Lanka’s development goals such as ending poverty.
Prof. Siddhisena pointed out that the economic crisis had affected youth outmigration significantly, with youths leaving for purposes of education, well-being, employment, and security, with the international migration movement being one of the primary events in the changing population structure of Sri Lanka.
He noted that manpower planning was required to improve the quality of the labour force, since qualified people leaving the country had a strong impact on the economy. “If this continues, without any Government remedy to keep these people in the country, it will lead to further economic problems since we will be unable to improve our productivity.”
He thus pointed out that Sri Lanka had failed to make use of its demographic transition unlike other nations.
“With demographic transition, the economies of many countries advanced. However, in Sri Lanka, given our economic issues such as a dearth of exports, import dependency, lack of manufacturing, and poor agricultural performance, demographic transition failed to boost the economy,” he said.