- Substantial gap in RE capacity, delay in key projects, base power shortfall
- CEB to follow original 2023-2042 LTGEP to increase RE generation
- PUCSL concerned over proposed 2025-2044 LTGEP submitted by CEB last year
The new Government has committed to advancing the Renewable Energy (RE) plan introduced by former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, aiming to meet 70% of Sri Lanka’s electricity demand through renewable resources.
However, this commitment comes at a time when the country faces significant challenges in the energy sector. Despite the ambitious target of 70% RE by 2030, there are issues such as a substantial gap in RE capacity, delays in key projects, and a shortfall in base power that remain unresolved.
Adding to the complexity is the reliance on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plants to meet base load requirements, compounded by delays in LNG infrastructure development and uncertainty over the conversion of existing plants to natural gas.
Furthermore, the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) has raised concerns about discrepancies in the Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan (LTGEP), including rising costs and inconsistencies in project timelines.
With these ongoing issues, questions arise about the Government’s ability to meet its energy targets. Is it truly prepared to overcome these challenges and successfully transition to an RE future?
70% target challenges
Speaking to The Sunday Morning, Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) Spokesman Eng. Dhanushka Parakramasinghe emphasised that the previous administration had extracted the plan laid out in the 2023-2042 LTGEP and enhanced it slightly to present it as a new plan.
“We will not follow that plan. Since there is a plan stated in the LTGEP, the CEB will proceed with that plan to meet RE targets,” he explained.
As per CEB generation statistics on Thursday (21), the combined output from the Laxapana, Mahaweli, and Samanala hydro complexes, along with CEB and Small Power Producer (SPP) wind energy and SPP solar, biomass, and mini-hydro sources, amounted to 27.22 GWh. This accounted for a substantial portion of the total energy generated, which was 47.47 GWh.
Based on calculations, total RE constituted approximately 57.35% of total energy generation as of last Thursday. Therefore, to achieve the 70% target by 2030, Sri Lanka needs to increase its RE contribution by 12.65% within the next five years.
The current policy for the electricity industry is outlined in the document titled ‘General Policy Guidelines in Respect of the Electricity Industry,’ approved by the Cabinet of Ministers in November 2021 and issued by the Ministry of Power in January 2022. The Government policy contains four clauses directly related to the future generating mix proposed in the LTGEP report.
According to the CEB’s LTGEP, the energy mix proposed through the Base Case Plan of the LTGEP 2023-2042 aligns with all policy requirements to achieve 70% of electricity generation in the country using RE sources by 2030, achieve carbon neutrality in power generation by 2050, cease building new coal-fired power plants, and ensure that new additions of firm capacity come from clean energy sources such as Regasified LNG (RLNG).
This latest general policy guideline must be read alongside the National Energy Policy and Strategies of Sri Lanka, published in 2019. The LTGEP stated that the general policy guidelines of the Government issued in April 2019 suggested an RE target of 50% to be met by 2030. This target was later enhanced to 70% with the 2022 policy.
This policy target effectively mandates RE sources, limiting the scope for optimisation typically carried out during generation planning. RE is now prioritised as a policy directive. Optimisation is possible only within the limited space allowed by the policy, which also specifies the preferred fuel for thermal generation and prohibits coal as a fuel.
The planning approach now revolves around facilitating the absorption of a high percentage of RE into the system as dictated by policy.
The LTGEP projects that indigenous RE-based generation will dominate in both capacity and energy terms throughout the planning period, with 5,646 MW of capacity additions planned for 2023-2030 and 8,180 MW for 2031-2042. The total RE capacity was expected to increase from 2,711 MW at the beginning of 2022 to 8,783 MW by the end of 2030 and to 16,963 MW by 2042.
After the expiration of plant life or the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) of RE plants, they will either be refurbished or replaced with similar capacity using the same RE technology. Consequently, the retirement of renewable plants is not separately indicated.
Base load gaps
Despite these RE plans, the country is currently experiencing a shortfall of nearly 300-500 MW of base power. According to Parakramasinghe, the board’s primary focus is on adding LNG power plants to the national grid in the coming years to meet the increasing base load requirement.
As per the LTGEP, natural gas-based power plants are expected to operate on diesel until 2025, after which they will transition to natural gas, contingent on the availability of the necessary infrastructure. However, the Government is yet to finalise the required LNG infrastructure and associated natural gas distribution network.
The LTGEP highlights that the first two 350 MW natural gas-based combined cycle power plants, currently in the construction and project development phases, should be commissioned to operate in combined cycle mode by 2024 and 2025, respectively. These power plants must be technically, operationally, and contractually capable of alternating between open cycle and combined cycle modes.
The LTGEP further notes that conversion of fuel capability to natural gas for the Kelanitissa Combined Cycle Power Plant, Sojitz Kelanitissa Power Plant, and West Coast Power Plant must be completed by 2025. All necessary activities to enable this conversion should be initiated immediately.
“The current administration is trying to revisit the previous LNG tender. The new Minister will submit the required Cabinet memo next week,” Parakramasinghe stated, adding: “There are several hydropower plants as well. With all these plans, we hope to address the base power shortfall.”
The Base Case Plan 2023-2042 identifies committed hydropower plants, including the 122 MW Uma Oya project, which should have been commissioned by 2022, and the 31 MW Moragolla project, expected to be operational by 2024.
Due to delays in implementing major power projects, a capacity shortage is projected from 2023 to 2025. A supplementary power capacity ranging from 320 MW to 120 MW is required to maintain minimum reliability criteria during this period.
Conflicting plans
Despite projections for Sri Lanka’s energy future, the PUCSL has stated it was unaware of any power shortfall. The commission has already approved the LTGEP 2023-2042, and the CEB has been moving forward with the execution of RE plans based on this framework.
However, last year, the CEB submitted an updated version of the LTGEP, covering the period of 2025-2044, which has been delayed for nearly a year while awaiting approval from the PUCSL.
PUCSL Corporate Communications Director Jayanath Herath confirmed that public consultations were currently underway for the LTGEP 2025-2044. The request for approval was submitted by CEB General Manager Eng. Dr. Narendra De Silva on 17 November 2023.
In its recent communications, the PUCSL has raised several concerns regarding the LTGEP 2025-2044, including discrepancies and delays. These concerns encompass inconsistencies in the costs for various technologies, increased costs for battery energy storage systems despite a global decrease in prices, and delays in key projects such as the pumped storage power plant and High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) interconnections.
The PUCSL has also questioned the exclusion of the Wewathenna Pumped Storage Plant, significant cost escalations for other projects, and the overly ambitious net generation forecast in light of recent negative growth trends. Additionally, the PUCSL has sought clarification on nuclear power plant site selection, infrastructure requirements, and the omission of integrated solar PV and storage solutions from the plan.
In such a backdrop, questions remain regarding which version of the LTGEP the CEB will adhere to in its future generation planning. With discrepancies, delays, and rising costs surrounding the proposed LTGEP 2025-2044 as well as the ongoing approval process, it remains uncertain how the country will direct its energy transition.
Several attempts made by The Sunday Morning to contact Energy Minister Eng. Kumara Jayakody and Energy Ministry Secretary Prof. Udayanga Hemapala were futile.