- SLPP, SLFP, UNP favour wanes
The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) is taking a clear lead among voters from among Opposition political parties, while electors are also consolidating around the main Parliamentary Opposition, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), and the Illankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK), according to the Institute of Health Policy’s (IHP) multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) voting intentions estimates polled for last month (February) – the Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS).
However, according to the same poll, support for the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and the United National Party (UNP), and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) is on the wane.
Overall, support for the JVP-led NPP surged in February, giving it a clear lead with 43% of likely General Election voters, compared with 30% for the SJB. The SLPP, the UNP, and the ITAK were far behind with the support of 4% of likely voters each, while support for the SLFP remained at 2%.
The JVP-led NPP lead in February would have been larger if not for a gap in voter enthusiasm with its supporters saying that they are less likely to vote. The IHP estimates that this reduced its lead over the SJB from 15 points amongst all adults (44% versus 29%) to 13% amongst likely voters. The surge in favour of the JVP-led NPP follows three months during which it ran neck and neck with the SJB.
In contrast, support for the SJB did not increase in February. The IHP’s latest analysis indicates that in the 12 months since February of last year (2022) when support for the SLPP last peaked, the JVP-led NPP has gained 30 points while the SJB has gained 11 points. Meanwhile, the SLPP and the SLFP have lost 28 and 15 points respectively, and the UNP has seen its support fluctuate but end only two points higher.
At the provincial level, the JVP-led NPP and the SJB split the leads, with the ITAK leading in the Northern Province. Further, in the Northern Province, voters are also gathering around the SJB. During the last four months, the JVP-led NPP has led in the Western, Southern, North Central, and North Western Provinces, whilst the SJB has led in the Central, Eastern, Uva and Sabaragamuwa Provinces.
SLOTS Lead Investigator and HP Executive Director Dr. Ravi Rannan-Eliya pointed out that based on these trends, the SLPP, SLFP, and UNP would fail to win seats in many districts if a Parliamentary Election was held today, as they would win insufficient votes to meet the thresholds. He added that the latest poll indicates that the electorate appears to be moving on from the confusion that followed the collapse of the administration led by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, when voters switched repeatedly between parties, with no set of parties dominating.
The IHP is a research centre based in Colombo. The SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults (aged 18 years and over) reached by the random digit dialling of mobile numbers, with the others coming from a national panel of respondents who were previously recruited through random selection. The IHP estimates voting intent using an adaptation of the MRP, which exploits data from all the SLOTS interviews to estimate voting in a particular month. The February 2023 MRP estimates are based on 421 interviews conducted in February, and 10,050 interviews conducted overall from 31 August 2021 and 12 March 2023, with a margin of error assessed as 2-5% for leading parties. All estimates are adjusted to ensure that the sample matches the national population with respect to age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, geographical location, and voting in the 2019 Presidential and 2020 General Elections. The SLOTS has been funded by the Neelan Tiruchelvam Trust, the United Kingdom’s National Institute for Health and Care Research, The Asia Foundation in Sri Lanka, and others.