With Sri Lanka under new management, the island nation will likely face its first geopolitical test following the formulation of a new government post General Election, which is scheduled to be held on 14 November.
One of the first tests of a new government may come from China, who has been patiently waiting to ‘test the waters’ with another request for a marine scientific research (MSR) vessel survey in early 2025. Multiple visits of Chinese MSR’s to Sri Lanka and its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) raised tension between Colombo, New Delhi, Washington, Tokyo, Canberra and Beijing between 2021 and 2023. Sri Lanka, caught in a bind between need for foreign assistance to sustain the island, negotiate an agreement with the IMF for a bailout package and to further debt restructuring, required a breathing space, and declared a one-year long moratorium on foreign MSR survey requests in December 2023, with effect from January 2024. This moratorium, if not extended, ends on 31 December.
While the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) caretaker Government has not taken any drastic ‘U-turns’ regarding Sri Lanka’s foreign policy, eyes of global powers and of regional powers are now on Colombo, with analyst and diplomats trying to predict how a possible NPP government post November, will behave? Even though there has been a flurry of ‘meet the Colombo diplomatic circuit’ after President Anura Kurmara Dissanayake, there is little to go by what a future NPP government/JVP core-led government may do in terms of foreign policy. At present, it is learnt that the Government has sought assistance from several foreign nations to investigate corruption, and introduce anti-corruption measures. With the caretaker Government’s decision to continue the Sri Lankan State's long standing position to oppose UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) resolutions against the island, it is evident that the NPP is rushing to fill the vacuum left in the island’s majority Sinhalese nationalist space before the General Election.
It is learnt that some diplomatic missions have already reached out to the caretaker Government seeking clarification on if Sri Lanka will change its stance on the foreign MSR survey moratorium by the end of the year. However, a decision will likely be taken post General Election, and once a new government will be formed. The Daily Morning learns that the matter has already been discussed in the caretaker Government’s foreign and defence policy circles. Some government officials favour extending the survey moratorium till mid-2025, to allow a new government to find its feet and focus on domestic concerns, which has been the NPP’s approach thus far. However, some government officials have expressed concern that anxiety in New Delhi and Washington regarding Chinese MSR’s frequenting Sri Lankan waters are also based on concerns based on preserved links between the NPP’s core element, the JVP and China.
It must be noted, that despite the moratorium enforced by Sri Lanka, Chinese MSR’s did visit the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) frequently in 2023 and up-to-date. In July and August of this year, three Chinese MSR’s (which India, the US, Japan and Australia believe are in the IOR not only with scientific designs, raising concerns about them collecting data needed for warfare) the Xiang Yang Hong 3, the Hai Yang Shi You 718 and Bei Diao 996 carried out extensive surveys in the South Eastern Indian Ocean and within the Bay of Bengal. Some dates of their presence in the Bay of Bengal coincided with India’s planned test of spacecraft and long-range ballistic missiles.
How the next government navigates such a complex geopolitical issue, will likely give insight into how they will approach foreign policy. Sri Lanka has already reviewed its standard operational procedure (SOP) to grant diplomatic approval for foreign warships, aircraft, and research vessels to traverse Sri Lankan waters, airspace, and to call at local ports. The revised SOP has been disseminated to foreign missions in Colombo in 2023, and the SOP has strict controls put in place for a foreign MSR to seek permission for a survey, how approval will be granted or denied, and if granted, how the new compliance regulatory framework will work. It is prudent for the next government to seek foreign policy and subject matter expert opinions and come up with an approach which best suits Sri Lanka in navigating thorny geopolitical issues such as foreign MSR survey’s in our waters. This is not the time for ad hoc decisions.