Despite the lifting of the Government’s 2021 ban on the import of synthetic fertilisers and pesticides, imposed with the objective of making agricultural systems more financially and environmentally sustainable, the dynamics of farming practices and production outcomes in the paddy sector have been significantly impacted.
The swiftness of the change to organic farming and banning agrochemicals have had far-reaching negative consequences.
Production patterns in paddy cultivation prior to the import ban (2020/’21 Maha season) and after the import ban (2021/’22 Maha season) demonstrate a marked shift, according to the official data.
Production decline of 1.7 MT
According to the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), in the harvesting seasons following the import ban, the 2021/’22 Maha and 2022 Yala seasons saw production drop by 1,756,691 Metric Tonnes (MT) from 2021 to 3,392,905 MT, despite climbing in the 2022/’23 Maha and 2023 Yala seasons to 4,513,431 MT.
In contrast, in the period before the ban, the total paddy production for the 2019/’20 Maha and 2020 Yala seasons and for the 2020/’21 Maha and 2021 Yala seasons stood at 5,120,924 MT and 5,149,596 MT, respectively.
A 2023 study by the Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research and Training Institute (HARTI) assessing the short-term impacts on the paddy sector from the 2021 import ban on fertiliser and other agrochemicals reveals a 5% decrease in the total paddy cultivated extent in the 2021/’22 Maha season, the main cultivation season after the import ban, compared to that of the 2020/’21 Maha season.
According to the study, this reduction was reported by 8% of farmers, who either cultivated a lower extent or temporarily suspended paddy cultivation in certain land plots. It does however note that the decrease in cultivation was observed amidst the dual challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic and the ban on fertilisers.
Further, this also led to a productivity change, impacting yield. HARTI data indicates that overall, the average paddy yield obtained in the surveyed districts was 1,818 kg/acre (7,272 kg/ha) in the 2020/’21 Maha season, which declined to 847 kg/acre (3,388 kg/ha) in the following 2021/’22 Maha season.
It also reveals a significant reduction of over 50% in paddy yield following the import ban on fertiliser and other agrochemicals, exceeding the figures predicted by many experts when the fertiliser ban policy was implemented.
However, data released by the DCS showed a 36% decrease in paddy yield during the 2021/’22 Maha season, with the report attributing the difference in percentage to the larger sample size and the inclusion of data from all paddy-growing districts.
Accordingly, the majority (62%) of farmers in the 11 paddy-growing districts surveyed recorded an average yield loss of over 50%, primarily due to the unavailability and delayed application of chemical fertilisers.
Moreover, yield per nett hectare is yet to recover to levels before the agrochemical ban, dropping from 4,307 MT and 4,309 MT in the 2020/’21 Maha and 2021 Yala seasons to 3,554 MT and 3,822 MT in the 2022/’23 Maha and 2023 Yala seasons, respectively.
Conditions normalising?
Nevertheless, speaking to The Sunday Morning, HARTI Senior Research Officer and Acting Additional Director Dr. N.P.G. Samantha said that paddy yields were gradually normalising after the policy shift of 2021, noting that the immediate impacts on yield had been during the first few seasons following the agrochemical ban.
“We have cultivated for several seasons after 2021 and there have been no issues since then. This issue has not been prevalent during the recent cultivation seasons,” Dr. Samantha stressed, attributing this to the resolution of the compound crisis of the fertiliser import ban and the economic downturn that prevailed at the time.
Meanwhile, a senior official at the Agriculture Department Rice Research and Development Institute (RRDI), speaking to The Sunday Morning on condition of anonymity, said that the department’s current recommendation was to follow Integrated Plant Nutrient Management (IPNM) practices, along with the use of both inorganic and organic fertiliser. She directed further queries to HARTI.
According to University of Peradeniya (UOP) Faculty of Agriculture Senior Professor of Agricultural Economics Jeevika Weerahewa, the impact of inadequate fertiliser is temporary as it can be remedied through proper application.
“There was a period of about seven months (May to November 2021) when no fertiliser was available due to the stoppage of formal imports, although there were smuggled fertilisers and those that were already in stock. This led to a sharp reduction in the application of fertilisers, causing yields to decline,” she said.
Despite lifting of the ban on 30 November 2021, fertiliser importation did not resume in full force, likely due to restrictions in foreign exchange outflow and the soaring global market prices of fertiliser.
Moreover, the fertiliser subsidy did not resume. “Although the Government lifted the import ban, it did not provide the fertiliser subsidy. Given that international market prices had increased at the time, fertiliser costs were high after the ban. Therefore, farmers did not apply sufficient quantities of fertiliser, so yields did not recover fully,” Prof. Weerahewa said.
With the economic situation stabilising and farmers receiving assistance, farmers have restarted application of fertilisers, leading to sufficient production at present.
While the policy change in terms of the import of fertilisers and other agrochemicals came under heavy criticism, Prof. Weerahewa pointed out that the elimination of fertiliser subsidies to paddy farmers was beneficial for the economy, since the long-lasting subsidy programme initiated in 1962 was a significant economic burden for the State.
The way forward
Nevertheless, Prof. Weerahewa believes that recovery to former levels of production is a possibility. “Production is more or less similar to what it was previously in terms of the total numbers, although there can be fluctuations in individual fields. However, we did not expect a rice shortage this season due to the actions of the millers.”
Addressing the present shortage of rice, she said that the lack of a comprehensive database meant that there was no data on the extent of cultivation and yields of paddy in different locations, noting that the quality of existing data was also questionable.
“The Government will have to make a conscious effort to monitor what is happening on the ground in terms of farmer behaviour, which will enable researchers to devise meaningful suggestions for policy reform,” she said.
As things currently stand, she observed that it was likely that the smaller and less productive farmers would leave the industry while the commercial farmers would continue, eventually leading to farming being undertaken by more entrepreneurial farmers who could face the vagaries of weather and other policy shocks.
Multiple attempts to contact Deputy Minister of Agriculture Namal Karunaratne for comment proved futile.