Yesterday (20) marked a remarkable moment in global history. Donald Trump is back in the Oval Office, and the world takes a deep breath with anxiety and confusion, wondering what tomorrow holds. The global implications of leadership change in the United States is not a trivial matter. Many still struggle to grasp how Trump managed to return to office, and will view the change with apprehension and extreme optimism.
Sri Lanka, were we too have seen a major political upheaval with the landslide rejection of the old political class, and the rise of the National People’s Power (NPP), will watch what unravels in Washington over the coming days and months, as the island nation too can be impacted by the butterfly effect.
Roll back a few years, a nd few would have predicted Donald Trump’s career could recover from the fallout of 6 January 2021 mob assault on the US Capitol, in protest at the change of government. However, much has happened since, and the US politics has been complicated. Trump will be the first person convicted of a felony in the United States to serve as President. He will pledge to “preserve, protect and defend” the Constitution from the same spot that was overrun by his supporters nearly four years ago in 2021. Trump has stated that one of his first acts in office will be to pardon many of those who participated in the riot. What message that sends to the democratic world, remains to be seen through many eyes in the coming years.
Irrespective of how others feel about Trumps’ return, Americans overwhelmingly voted for his return to office. Today, a triumphant Trump and his hordes of supporters return to the Capitol and the city he was forced to leave four years ago. But when you strip out the exaggeration, the boasting and theatrics, a politician that is Trump, is making a return to the domestic issues of security, identity, economy and family. Going by how the voting happened, it is clear that this approach has resonated strongly with Americans, who have learned from experience that sometimes institutions, industry and lawmakers become preoccupied with their own priorities and by trivialities while their nation slides into crisis. A lesson, seen in Sri Lanka’s past as well.
Even the Pope, who had been critical of him in the past had offered congratulation to him. It is reported that the Pope, who was earlier critical of Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric, said he would pray that God grants Trump "wisdom, strength and protection" as he takes up the Presidency again. "It is my hope that under your leadership the American people will prosper and always strive to build a more just society, where there is no room for hatred, discrimination or exclusion."
Trump will likely act quickly after he takes over duties, with executive orders already prepared for his signature to jumpstart deportations, increase fossil fuel development and reduce civil service protections for government workers, and a myriad of other actions which can have global impact. Conflict’s such as the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, Ukraine-Russian war, and heightened tensions with Iran, Yemen, North Korea, and in areas like the Nordic region, the Baltic, South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits will likely be impacted. The US’s Indo-Pacific strategy will likely remain less altered with Trump, some observers believe. With the US being one of Sri Lanka’s major markets, how Trump’s new policies impact Sri Lanka exports and industry remains to be seen.
It is too early to accurately predict anything about Trump's second term as President. Many have tried to crystal-ball gaze, but with an unpredictable personality like that of Donald Trump’s, anything is possible. Unlike the post-World War 2 era, and the 90’s after the fall of the Soviet Union, where the rest of the world was dependent on the US for stability, much has changed over the last two decades, where US influence has declined. So, has the imagined moral high-ground the US thought it had. Those still in denial about US moral standing, need only to look at their support of Israel over the decades and specifically over the last two years to make a good appraisal. As such, the world watches with much uncertainty on how this change in US leadership will impact the rest of the world.