A total of 39 candidates are contesting in Sri Lanka’s ninth Presidential Election scheduled to be held on 21 September. This is a record number of candidates contesting in an election in the history of Presidential Elections of the country.
Until now, the Presidential Election has been a direct contest between candidates of two main political parties or alliances led by them. But this time the election will be a three-way contest between incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) Leader Sajith Premadasa, and National People’s Power (NPP) Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake.
Some political observers are making disturbing comments, questioning whether there is a chance of a change in the scenario of a three-way contest after the entry of Namal Rajapaksa, the National Organiser of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and the eldest son and political heir of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa into the fray.
This time, the Presidential Election is taking place in an entirely different situation. Two years ago the severe economic crisis during the reign of the Rajapaksas sparked an unprecedented popular uprising in Sri Lanka’s history. Sri Lankan voters are going to get the opportunity to exercise their right to vote for the first time since the uprising that ousted the Rajapaksas from power. If there has been any perceptible change in the political thinking of the people as a result of the uprising, this election should definitely reflect that.
Unlike the previous Presidential Elections, this time the campaigns started several months before the formal announcement of the election by the Election Commission. Premadasa and Dissanayake announced their candidature last year and started campaigning vigorously.
RW’s independent candidacy
As for President Wickremesinghe, he announced late last month that he would contest the election. With his United National Party (UNP) severely weakened, he had to focus on building a broader alliance that could support him in the election.
He is contesting not as a candidate of his party but as an independent candidate with the support of a peculiar alliance comprising defectors from various political parties. An agreement on the alliance comprising 32 political parties and groups was signed on Friday (16).
This is the first-ever time that a leader of a main political party in Sri Lanka is running as an independent candidate at a national election.
After the Rajapaksas decided to field a separate candidate on behalf of the SLPP, most of the parliamentarians of that party abandoned them and came to the side of the President. Therefore, even if the President is happy about the developments, he needs to really think about the number of votes each of them can bring him.
Some observers say that because of the growing support for the President among the people in their constituencies, those Members of Parliament (MPs) are abandoning the Rajapaksas and scrambling to support him. Even politicians who were staunch Rajapaksa loyalists say publicly that they have decided to back Wickremesinghe at the behest of their supporters who are increasingly turning towards him.
A different strategy
It seems that the President is conducting his campaign with an entirely different strategy, declaring that he will campaign among the people by promoting the nation and not himself. He says that he is not contesting the election against anyone and, unlike other candidates, he is not contesting for his own political future but for the future of the country. He has announced that he is ready to work with all parties if he wins the election.
“Earlier I invited Premadasa and Anura Kumara to come forward to work with me. But they turned it down. They may be worried about that now. Next time, I will bring them into the Government without any objection. Not only them but also Namal Rajapaksa, the candidate of the SLPP,” he told newspaper editors and heads of media houses last week.
It seems certain that he is not going to attack any candidate on the election platform. Saying that the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the only way to bring Sri Lanka out of the economic crisis and lead it towards prosperity, he asks the people to give him a mandate for the next five years to continue with the economic restructuring measures that his Government has been taking forward for the last two years.
The President also points out that the other main presidential candidates are also not opposed to the agreement with the IMF and that they have openly said they will continue with it. He is not making any new promises and is seeking the mandate of the people to continue the same economic restructuring programme.
In addition, Wickremesinghe, who has presented himself as an independent candidate who can be supported by all parties without showing interest in party politics like in the past, portrays himself as a new ‘avatar’ beyond party politics. If he wins, perhaps he may be the first non-party president in Sri Lanka. An important question is what impact the President’s current approach will have on Sri Lankan society, which has a political culture characterised by deep party political rivalries and ethnic animosity.
Pledges by RW, SP and AKD
After submitting their nomination papers at the Election Commission office last Thursday (15), the three main candidates made remarks to supporters and media.
“I seek the people’s mandate to create a bright future for the people of Sri Lanka. We took charge of the country and brought stability. You now have access to food, fuel, and other essentials.
“This is just the beginning. There is a lot of work to be done to make Sri Lanka a stable nation. I request people to give me a mandate to carry out these tasks. When asked to take charge of the country at a time of crisis, members of the Opposition ran away. Decide whether you are going to hand over the country to such people or not,” the President said.
SJB Leader Premadasa said that he would usher in an era of the common masses in the style of his father, late President Ranasinghe Premadasa. “I promise to create an era of the common masses. I will create a situation where everyone living in the country can enjoy the benefits of development. I call upon the people to rally behind me,” he stated.
NPP Leader Dissanayake said that the people needed a change and that only their camp had the ability to bring about such a change. “Despite the number of elections held in the past, the people suffered untold hardships for years. We can win this election. People want a change in the situation of suffering. We can turn this election to rescue people and the country from hardships. Only our camp can achieve that goal.”
Enter Namal Rajapaksa
For Namal Rajapaksa, he is contesting the Presidential Election as an attempt to rebuild the SLPP with his political future in mind. A significant aspect of Namal’s entry is that a prominent member of the Rajapaksa family has entered the electoral fray after a popular uprising ousted it from power.
No member of the Rajapaksa family had any intention of contesting the Presidential Election this time. At one point it was widely believed that supporting President Wickremesinghe was their best option. But after the President flatly refused to comply with their demands and conditions to secure their future political prospects, they decided to field a separate candidate on behalf of their party.
Before falling out with the President, it seemed that the Rajapaksas were subtly intimidating the President with the prospect of nominating casino owner and leading businessman Dhammika Perera as their party’s potential candidate. The Rajapaksas’ attempt to use Perera and his money as a touchstone to test their current support among the people ultimately proved futile. Perera announced at the last minute that he did not want to contest the election due to personal reasons.
Therefore, the Rajapaksas were forced to field Namal without any other option. Fearing that the SLPP’s vote base would be scattered if they did not contest the election, the Rajapaksas have nominated Namal to protect the party. But are the people going to vote to elect a new president or are they going to vote to protect the Rajapaksas’ party?
The Rajapaksas have a perverse idea that the Sinhalese people should be forever loyal to them regardless of their mistakes for ending the war.
At the same time, there is no doubt that the Rajapaksas will be inclined to repeat majoritarian mobilisation against the political rights and aspirations of minority communities in order to garner as many votes as possible. But while all three main candidates, though may be for electoral purposes, are interested in reaching out to minority communities, it seems that the Rajapaksas’ communal rhetoric is unlikely to gain much traction with the Sinhalese this time around.
If Namal, a young political leader who is nursing an ambition to lead the country in the future chooses a non-communal path, unlike the elders of his family, it will augur well for him. Will he be willing to change himself? At least he can show a change in the thinking on ethnic relations by announcing in his election manifesto a progressive stance on the implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution.
Other candidates in the fray
Candidates of 23 political parties and 16 independent candidates are contesting the Presidential Election. Among them are leading politicians like former Army Chief Sarath Fonseka and former Justice Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe. There is no doubt that they are contesting for other purposes than to be elected as president. The same is the case with most of the independent candidates.
It is also noteworthy that Nuwan Bopage, a lawyer, is contesting the Presidential Election on behalf of the People’s Struggle Alliance, a movement formed by a faction of activists who were at the forefront of the ‘Aragalaya’ people’s uprising.
Fundamental issues
Meanwhile, some of the fundamental issues that usually dominate Presidential Elections seem unlikely to get the attention of the main candidates this time around. In particular, it is not known whether the long-standing popular demand to abolish the executive presidential system will find a place in their election manifestos.
Regarding the national problem, nothing else can be expected in the manifestos of the main candidates except for the declarations on implementing the 13th Amendment to the Constitution with vague positions on important powers such as Police and land.
There are also politicians in the north who say that they can consider supporting any candidate from the south if they promise that they are ready to accept the Sri Lankan Tamil people’s right to self-determination and find a solution to the national ethnic problem based on a federal system. So much is their understanding of today’s political situation around them.
On the north and east political front, Pakkiyaselvam Ariyanethiran, a former Batticaloa District MP of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), is contesting as a common Tamil candidate in the Presidential Election on behalf of some Tamil parties and a newly formed civil society, the Tamil National General Council.
His appointment was contrary to all the criteria defined by the Tamil National General Council from the beginning for a person who can be appointed as a Tamil common candidate.
Those who nominated Ariyanethiran say that he is nothing more than a symbol of Tamil nationalistic political aspirations. He also says that his symbolic duty will end on election day. So, there is no point in talking about him here. It seems that hereafter, the Tamil people will not have leaders but only symbols if and when elections come.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in Colombo)