• No focus on implementing critical short-term solutions to prevent blackouts 
• Govt. to look at transmission line upgrades, new power generation facilities 
• Push for ground-mounted solar generation rather than rooftop solar sans centralised system
• Govt. to introduce new energy policy, 5-year action plan for electricity sector: Prof. Hemapala

Despite repeated warnings from energy experts about Sri Lanka’s fragile power grid, the Government is pushing forward with long-term grid expansion plans while neglecting the immediate crisis. 

Instead of implementing critical short-term solutions to stabilise the system, authorities have chosen to invest in costly infrastructure projects that do little to prevent imminent blackouts. This approach is set to increase electricity tariffs, placing an additional financial burden on already struggling consumers.

In the wake of the recent six-hour nationwide blackout and continued system instability, experts have repeatedly highlighted the urgent need for immediate mitigation measures. However, the Government has been reluctant to act, instead focusing on long-term expansion projects, such as transmission line upgrades and new power generation facilities, which will take years to complete. 

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s power grid remains vulnerable, with the risk of further blackouts looming large.

The costly burden

The Government has secured a $ 200 million loan from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to modernise the power sector, including transmission network upgrades and renewable energy integration. 

While these initiatives are necessary in the long run, they do not address the current crisis. Experts warn that the cost of these large-scale projects will ultimately be passed down to consumers in the form of higher electricity tariffs.

A senior engineer at the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), speaking on condition of anonymity, criticised the Government’s approach, stating: “We are facing an immediate crisis and yet the focus is on long-term expansion. The reality is that consumers will have to pay for these decisions while still suffering from frequent power outages.”

The inability to stabilise the grid in the short term will not only result in increased blackouts but also higher operational costs due to emergency power generation, most likely from expensive diesel-powered thermal plants. This means that while infrastructure projects are being developed, the immediate cost burden will be borne by ordinary Sri Lankans.

As learnt by The Sunday Morning, expanding the grid to support Renewable Energy (RE) is estimated to cost $ 9 billion, potentially increasing tariffs despite international funding support.

The Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan (LTGEP) 2023-2042 outlines the financial impact of the RE shift, estimating costs at $ 18.87 billion, rising slightly with cross-border interconnection or nuclear power integration. Aiming for 70% RE instead of 50% adds approximately $ 1 billion in costs.

Rooftop solar issues

One of the biggest contributors to Sri Lanka’s power instability is the rapid and unregulated expansion of rooftop solar energy. 

While renewable energy is a crucial component of the country’s energy future, experts have warned that the increasing penetration of inverter-based Non-Conventional Renewable Energy (NCRE) sources, especially rooftop solar, is destabilising the grid. Despite these warnings, the Government has done little to address the issue. 

The core problem with rooftop solar is that it lacks centralised control, leading to frequency fluctuations and reduced system inertia. On weekends and public holidays, when industrial and commercial power demand is low, the system struggles to balance generation and consumption. This issue was evident during the most recent blackout, where a voltage drop triggered a chain reaction, ultimately leading to a total system collapse.

Instead of taking corrective measures, the Government continues to promote rooftop solar installations without any regulations to mitigate their impact on grid stability. Experts have suggested shifting focus to ground-mounted solar farms, which provide better system control and integration. Unlike rooftop solar, ground-mounted projects can be designed with real-time monitoring, grid-friendly inverters, and energy storage solutions to enhance stability.

Speaking to The Sunday Morning, a senior CEB official explained: “We are not against solar energy. The problem is the way it is being integrated. Rooftop solar is uncontrolled and unpredictable, making it difficult to manage grid stability. Ground-mounted solar, on the other hand, allows for better grid management, but the Government is not prioritising this because it is politically less attractive.”

Push for immediate solutions

Several practical short-term solutions have been proposed by energy experts to mitigate the risk of further blackouts, yet none have been implemented by the Government. 

One critical measure is operating thermal power plants at a minimal load, particularly on Sundays and public holidays, in order to provide system inertia and stability. For example, running the Kelanitissa combined cycle plant at a reduced capacity could help stabilise fluctuations without significantly increasing costs.

Another essential step is adjusting solar inverter settings to remain connected for longer periods during voltage drops, preventing sudden power losses that exacerbate grid instability. 

Additionally, experts recommend introducing weekend industrial tariffs to encourage industries to shift production to weekends. Offering reduced electricity rates during these periods would help increase demand and stabilise the grid, particularly during the ‘sunny Sunday’ effect when solar generation peaks but industrial activity remains low.

Investing in fast-response storage solutions, such as Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and flywheel energy storage, is another critical recommendation. These systems can quickly inject power into the grid during disturbances, mitigating frequency fluctuations and improving overall resilience. 

Strengthening grid monitoring and control by establishing an NCRE Control Desk at the National System Control Centre would also allow for real-time forecasting and faster responses to grid disturbances, further enhancing stability.

Despite these viable and cost-effective solutions, the Government has shown little interest in implementing them. Instead, authorities remain focused on large-scale expansion projects that will take years to complete and offer no immediate relief.

Political motive behind inaction?

There is growing speculation that the Government’s reluctance to act on rooftop solar regulations and short-term solutions is politically motivated. 

With elections approaching, imposing restrictions on rooftop solar or increasing electricity tariffs could be unpopular decisions that impact voter sentiment. As a result, authorities are prioritising politically safe options, even if it means prolonging the power crisis.

The senior official of the CEB said: “The Government does not want to take any action that might be perceived as unfavourable before the elections. Addressing the rooftop solar issue would require implementing regulations that could upset certain interest groups, so it is choosing to ignore the matter.”

The long-term grid expansion plans, while necessary, serve as a convenient political tool to showcase development efforts. However, they fail to address the urgent crisis at hand, leaving consumers vulnerable to continued power outages and rising electricity costs.

In this context, Energy Ministry Secretary Prof. Udayanga Hemapala told The Sunday Morning that the Government was preparing to introduce a new energy policy and a five-year action plan for the electricity sector.

“The CEB has identified that the existing grid’s capacity restraining the allocation of RE generation is one of the reasons for the recent blackout. Therefore, action will be taken to expand the grid, starting with the ADB funds already received. Further, the grid expansion cost will be added to the tariffs,” he stated.

Additionally, he stressed: “The digitalisation of the country’s grid would be a solution to identify immediate risks such as the recent blackout and to avoid such occurrences in the future.”