One of the key issues raised by the collective Opposition as well as the Ranil Wickremesinghe-led Government during campaigning for the Presidential Election in September last year as well as the General Elections two months later was the so-called ‘inexperience’ of the National People’s Power (NPP) to take on the role of governing Sri Lanka. They pointed to the fragile state of the nation’s economy and the rapidly changing global order, where Sri Lanka’s fate depended on skillful navigation of those rough seas, as key points for adopting that stance.
These Opposition parties kept harping on the fact that the economic gains made up to that point could potentially be compromised due to ‘inexperience’ as the critical state of the nation’s economy did not allow space for ‘learning on the job.’ Now six months down the line, some of those concerns, which at the time were dismissed as mere election rhetoric, appear to be making sense – at least in the area of foreign affairs.
The NPP regime arguably started off on the wrong foot by giving a crucial BRICS meeting a miss. The 16th summit of the grouping that was held in Kazan, Russia last October was significant for many reasons, including the inclusion of four new members. Sri Lanka being extended an invitation to this meeting was an opportunity that should have been seized, given the West’s increasing disinterest in the Global South. Participation would, at the very least, have provided an excellent networking opportunity, especially for those new to the game.
Be that as it may, the first real test of the NPP’s foreign affairs expertise has been put to the test by the nation’s former colonial ruler, the United Kingdom, deciding to arbitrarily declare sanctions against four Sri Lankan nationals – three of whom happen to be former military commanders while the other is an LTTE deserter who decamped long before the war ended. Interestingly, not a single LTTE member has been sanctioned.
Given this lopsided treatment, it was reasonable to expect the Government of Sri Lanka to come out firing on all cylinders. However, even its seemingly jaded reaction to the unilateral action only came about following growing pressure from Opposition parties as well as civil society groups to express its stance on the matter. Having taken its time on the matter, the Government finally came out with what seemed an innocuous statement, leaving those at the receiving end to fend for themselves.
The statement failed to question what due process had been followed in arriving at the decision and what exactly the allegations were against the military personnel. No information has been forthcoming on the charges against the men, the manner in which an investigation was carried out, and as to who conducted it, if any. It is in this vacuum that sanctions have been imposed on the trio, raising more questions than answers on the matter. Instead, the statement took up the position that unilateral action would undermine the ongoing national reconciliation process.
In contrast, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa pounced on the opportunity to fill the vacuum created by the regime. He asserted in a statement of his own that it was he who declared war and that the commanders were merely following orders. What raised many an eyebrow is that it was ultimately left to the former President to defend the military trio, while the Government appeared to be attempting to distance itself from the issue. This seemingly indifferent attitude of the Government appears to have galvanised the fractured Opposition to unite in their demand for more tangible action, but all such calls appear to have fallen on deaf ears.
Incidentally, this is not the first time that there has been occasion for controversy over British diplomacy. Back in 1991, former President Ranasinghe Premadasa took the unprecedented step of declaring then British High Commissioner in Colombo David Gladstone persona non grata. The marching orders were issued over the High Commissioner’s ‘high-handed conduct’ during the Local Government Elections on 10 May 1991. Even though much water has flown under the bridge since those tumultuous days, there is a palpable sense of irony in these events that have taken place decades apart.
In 1990, Mahinda Rajapaksa went to Geneva seeking the intervention of the UN Human Rights Council over alleged violation of human rights by the security forces in battling the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) insurrection at the time. Now, for the first time, that same JVP rebranded as the NPP is the elected Government, while the same Mahinda Rajapaksa is now defending three commanders against alleged human rights violations. But the irony does not end there. Next week, the JVP, which staged the deadly insurrection against the Government over the Indo-Lanka agreement in 1987 and violently campaigned against what it termed Indian expansionism, will lay out the red carpet to welcome Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the island and then proceed to ink a raft of new bilateral agreements.
Be that as it may, it is the general consensus that the unilateral British action is a result of pressure politics brought on by the powerful Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora lobby in the UK, which wields considerable political clout. One big giveaway of an alternate agenda at play is the lopsided imposition of sanctions, with none of the hardcore LTTE members, who in fact have made the UK their home, attracting any. It is not that the LTTE members have been saints, with the list of offences laid at the LTTE’s doorstep being way longer – among them the recruitment of child soldiers and female suicide bombers.
Following the unilateral imposition of sanctions, questions have also been raised as to whether the fundamental principles of natural justice have been followed, in which event those accused should have had the courtesy of a fair hearing. It is for these reasons that the collective Opposition has termed the Government’s response as lukewarm and inadequate. It has also raised speculation on whether the Government was beholden to the British diaspora for the electoral support it received in the north and east. Meanwhile, the Tamil National Alliance, which has traditionally represented the citizens of the north but lost out the last time, has welcomed the sanctions, pointing to the ongoing turf battle to reclaim the support of the diaspora community.
The UK sanctions issue is only one of many currently ongoing that will test the NPP’s foreign affairs acumen and competence. With a zero margin for error, inexperience is no excuse for failure as it is the country’s future that is at stake.
With the isolationist ‘America First’ policy being implemented by the Donald Trump administration to the exclusion of its traditional trading partners, there is a tectonic shift in the manner in which global trade is conducted. American dominance is on the wane by its own choosing and countries are learning to do things on their own. Trading dominance is shifting towards Asia and strategic alliances like BRICS will play a key role in that shift.
While Sri Lanka stands to gain from its geological positioning, that alone will not suffice to bring home the bacon. It will have to strategically work its way into the global trading system through partnerships by leveraging its hub status. In a fiercely competitive global environment supercharged by a trade war, geopolitical tensions in the race to secure market share need to be handled with care.
Towards this end, India should not be seen as steamrolling its way in Sri Lanka. The Adani issue is turning out to be a litmus test of the level of engagement the NPP regime is prepared to endure. In doing so, the regime must not be seen as reckless, because if that were to be the general perception that is created, then it is the nation’s image that will be dented.
Meanwhile, as predicted last week, the US appears to be drawing attention to the trade balance between the two nations, pushing Sri Lanka to import more from the US. In a backdrop where forex reserves are not at a satisfactory level yet, and in fact dipped marginally over the last few months, the regime needs to figure out a way to sort things out: a tall order for the delegation that is currently in Washington.