Sometimes, a simple coffee catch-up can turn into an unexpected journey through recent history. 

Last week, I met two old friends at a cosy café in Colombo 7. Three of us hadn’t gathered since 5 December 2018. With an Americano and avocado juice, we chatted about the changes in our lives, laughing and reflecting. 

One common thing was that we all had gained weight and grey hair. My friends, too, have been involved in politics for years, with one starting with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) before the difficult  ’88/’89 period and the other joining after the JVP’s resurgence in 1994. 

Both are not affiliated with the party anymore, like many others. They’ve faced their share of dangers, from threats to assassination attempts, all in the name of making Sri Lanka a better place. I admire them for their courage, foresight and their abilities to listen to whispers.

Ranil’s seductions

As we talked, another meeting was taking place nearby. The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) politburo was deciding whether to support President Ranil Wickremesinghe. By the end of their session, news broke that the majority had voted against backing him, opting instead to put forward their candidate. This decision, made by all but 11 members, was a significant moment. At the same time, over at the United National Party (UNP) headquarters, Sirikotha, there was a sense of unease about the SLPP’s vote. 

The aftermath was equally intriguing. Many prominent SLPP members publicly criticised the politburo’s decision and declared their support for Wickremesinghe. It’s a rare sight for the SLPP, a party closely associated with the Rajapaksa family, where the decisions typically come from the top rather than a formal committee. This time, however, the party faced a split.

It’s a curious twist; two years ago, Wickremesinghe and his new allies were on opposite sides, often bitterly so. In simple words, Wickremesinghe was their enemy No.1. 

It was Wickremesinghe’s time to seduce them further; uncharacteristically he thanked the “team” for supporting him to salvage the country in the last two years. He did not stop, and revealed that this “team” reminded him of his uncle President J.R Jayewardene’s team, where he was a key member. 

Even to the last moment, some of the key members of the Wickremesinghe administration expected SLPP patriarch, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa to support Wickremesinghe. However, the decision was the opposite. Despite the fact, Wickremesinghe thanked his friend Mahinda for his support since 2022. 

Previously, I had written about how the SLPP young brigade in the Cabinet found their own space with Wickremesinghe. They stepped up and there were no surprises. 

Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, a classmate of Wickremesinghe at Royal College, ditched his long-standing allegiance to Mahinda and sided with his current boss, the President. Though they were classmates and with aristocratic family pedigree, for decades they were political enemies. In fact Prime Minister Gunawardene was one of the biggest critics of Wickremesinghe in the period of 1994 to 2022. 

The biggest surprise was Anuradhapura District SLPP numero uno S.M. Chandrasena. Who would have thought Chandrasena would side with Wickremesinghe, moving the Anuradhapura District political machinery? Perhaps not many. He was one of the most loyal servants of the Rajapaksa family.

This situation is a reminder of how unpredictable politics can be. Alliances change and former adversaries can become allies. The SLPP defectors’ decision to follow a more collective approach, rather than relying solely on the Rajapaksas, shows a shift in their internal dynamics. But, as always in politics, nothing is set in stone, and what seems certain one day can quickly change the next. 

Safeguarded secret

It was a week in which I had an unprecedented number of calls from my friends from different parts of the world, who were keenly watching the unfolding drama in Sri Lanka. There was one more reason, because I had written last week that there was a minimum of 40% undecided voters in the country. I stand by this again and any experienced pollsters in the country could verify the same for anyone, privately. 

In the last six months, I appealed to at least four pollsters to explain to the public how polling was conducted, the methodologies used, and the reasons why polling was not being discussed in the public domain. Polling is not like market research for a brand or a product. Politics is fragile, unexplainable, flexible, fluid, situational, and most importantly, until people really vote, you don’t exactly know the result. 

The reputation of a pollster is how well and how closely they can predict a result, one that can only be known after an election. An experienced pollster will have past Presidential, Parliamentary, Provincial Council, and Local Government election data and results. 

The political masters, Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa, Basil Rajapaksa, and even new-kid-in-town (although not a rookie to politics) candidate Dilith Jayaweera, know the position they are in and who is leading. The numbers are the reason for defections, deal-making, back-channelling, and evolving campaign narratives. 

The best political masters all over the world keep polling privately and manoeuvre accordingly. Polling numbers in wrong hands could even engineer defections, affect campaign funding and international support, and create disharmony within ranks leading to revolts. Polling is the most safeguarded secret in a life-changing Presidential Election. 

Whilst en masse defections took place from the Rajapaksas to Wickremesinghe, Wickremesinghe is expecting defections from Premadasa, and in the same way, Premadasa is expecting defections from the Rajapaksas and Wickremesinghe too. Don’t hold your guns; some who defected from the Rajapaksas can be back with them too. 

Dilith Jayaweera is flirting with the JVPers and Rajapaksa followers after wooing Wimal Weerawansa and Udaya Gammanpila to his camp. The only candidate in the race who cannot afford to engineer crossovers is Anura Kumara Dissanayake, as he is running a tight campaign with an ‘everyone else is a rogue’ anti-corruption narrative. As per the JVP’s founding socialist principles, it won’t be able to bed with racists and capitalists.

Ruthless decision

Whilst writing this, my memory takes me back to a political lesson shared by my grandfather about a ruthless decision taken by former President Jayewardene as the Leader of the UNP. I quote Prof. K.M. de Silva and Howard Wriggins from JR’s political biography. 

“In March and April 1976, the UNP was presented with another opportunity to test its strength at a by-election, this time at Ja-Ela, just north of Colombo, a largely Roman Catholic seat, made necessary by the death of G.J. Paris Perera, the UNP parliamentarian who had done much to help heal the rift between JR and Dudley Senanayake in 1972.

“The candidate chosen was a representative of the new UNP, a man of lower-middle-class origins and status unlike the man he replaced. As was not so unusual for UNP candidates at the time, he had been marked by the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and Felix Dias Bandaranaike in particular, for special treatment and was arrested on a trumped-up charge of murder. JR hesitated for a moment to choose him, but an eloquent plea on his behalf by R. Premadasa and the assessment by several leading criminal lawyers that there was nothing in the charges against him helped convert JR to the views of the bulk of the working committee. 

“The campaign itself went as smoothly as JR predicted it would go, but throughout it he faced some difficulties from dissident UNPers associated with Dudley Senanayake, in particular, Rukman Senanayake himself. A statement from Rukman Senanayake criticising the UNP was carried prominently a day or two before the Ja-Ela campaign closed by a Sinhala newspaper of the Times Group. 

“JR bided his time till the campaign was over. The UNP secured a very large margin of victory at Ja-Ela on 23 April. He now moved swiftly to deal with Rukman Senanayake’s challenge. He called a meeting of the party’s Executive Committee for 30 April (the meeting was held at the Ramakrishna Mission Hall in Colombo, not at Sirikotha). UNP MP S.B. Herath was asked by him to move a resolution calling for Rukman Senanayake’s expulsion. Walking up the steps of the Ramakrishna Hall, JR muttered to Lalith Athulathmudali who was with him, ‘Get ready for the high jump.’ At the meeting itself, Herath’s motion was readily seconded. There were many who were fearful of the consequences of the step JR was about to take, but knowing that JR was intent on taking it, they went along in a unanimous decision to expel the last of the Senanayake clan in the UNP.”

JR fired Rukman, a Senanayake. JR went on to win the 1977 Parliamentary Election with a five-sixth majority, changed the Constitution, and became the first Executive President of Sri Lanka. Until the end of his tenure in 1988, not many crossed him and people who crossed him, like Gamini Jayasuriya, crossed him gracefully. However, Rukman returned to the UNP in 1994 and served in the Cabinet under then Premier Wickremesinghe in 2001.

Impeachment and resignations

The second case in point is a famous story, again from the UNP. This time under former President Premadasa in the midst of facing an impeachment motion moved by his own people in partnership with the Opposition. I quote Evans Gunalal Cooray from his memoir ‘In the Shadow of a People’s President’:

“People then realised that the President was not as helpless as they were made to believe. Only the movers of the impeachment motion could be helpless at the end. Lalith Athulathmudali had won the affection of the people more than Gamini Dissanayake. He was also like Premadasa in many ways. Efficient with no pretension. He did not squander public money. People placed their faith in Athulathmudali the same way they relied on Premadasa. Many believed that he could develop the country. 

“Those who were against Premadasa felt that he was an autocrat. People regretted Athulathmudali’s involvement in the impeachment exercise as it could spell disaster for him. One newspaper reporter informed me over the phone that Athulathmudali was due to meet the President in the President’s Office. I was astonished as I was not aware of any such move. How did he know about such a meeting? Everything I heard proved correct. According to him, after the meeting with the President, he will resign from the Cabinet. He will then hold a press briefing in Parliament on the 31st. Minister Premachandra also will join the press briefing. There will be another press meeting the same day presided over by Sirimavo Bandaranaike. 

“Athulathmudali arrived at the President’s Office at the appointed time. It was a meeting of two Sri Lankan political strongmen of the 20th century. If they join hands, it could be for the good of the country and for themselves. Otherwise it could spell doom for both of them and the country. Prime Minister Wijetunga, Weerasinghe Mallimarachchi, A.C.S. Hameed, and Ranil Wickremesinghe were engrossed in a discussion outside the office. 

“When Athulathmudali entered the President’s Office, I was there with the President’s son Sajith. The meeting was very cordial. Athulathmudali was speaking very softly to prevent us from hearing what he said. I could feel that he did not like our presence from the way he glanced at us. He said the dispute could be resolved by taking Gamini Dissanayake back into the Cabinet. ‘Now the two of you patched up. If there was no dispute between the two of you there would not have been any problem,’ said the President. ‘Actually there was no serious dispute between the two of us,’ replied Lalith. ‘Why not? I asked both of you to come to an agreement on the premiership. You could not come to an understanding. Both of you wanted to be the prime minister. That was the problem.’ ‘Those are bygone things. Now the problem is the impeachment. As a compromise, may I suggest that Gamini be taken back to the Cabinet? Then the problem is over.’ 

“‘I had Gamini in my Cabinet with you all. He was just there. Not happy at all. He wanted one year’s leave to proceed to England for further studies. Who was asking for leave? A person who was aspiring to be the prime minister. I had to wait one year for him to return. It could be two. He found it difficult to work under me. I knew what his problem was. It was class difference. He could wok obediently and cordially with President Jayewardene. But not with Premadasa. Why? Class distinction. When he was working with President Jayewardene the Constitution was good. But with Premadasa it was bad. More powers needed to be devolved to Parliament. He wanted to cut off the President’s powers. It can be anyone. But at present I am the President elected by the people. What he should have done was to work with me disregarding class and creed. Lalith, you know how I worked with the former President. I was only a nominal prime minister. I had no powers. Everything was with the President. Somehow I managed to give my position some dignity. It was not something given. It was something I achieved. I never did anything without asking him but I continued unabated. That is what Gamini also should have done.’

“‘You are right sir. Can we give him another chance?’ ’Gamini is the leader of this move. I don’t like to stab anyone in the back. Ask him to withdraw his signature from the impeachment motion against me. After that ask him to get involved with the work of the party as usual. If he does that, I can make him a minister. Without that I won’t give into any threats.’

“The discussion was getting heated up. Lalith glanced at us again. ‘Sir, can we ask Sajith and Evans to leave the room for a while? This discussion should be only between the two of us.’ ‘I agree,’ said the President. His face had changed. The friendliness had vanished. The eyes were red. He was agitated. Authlathmudali had come not to plead. He wanted to make a final decision. If the information I received was correct, he had come ready to resign. We left the room and the door was closed. We slipped into the inner room set aside for the President. We could hear raised voices from outside despite the closed doors. It was very unfortunate. After a short while the door opened. Lalith Athulathmudali came out. He waved to us all as if saying ‘goodbye’. He went without speaking to anyone.”

Lalith and Gamini defected from President Premadasa. The impeachment motion was launched but defeated and Premadasa emerged victorious. Many expected Wickremesinghe to walk with Lalith and Gamini to form the Democratic United National Front (DUNF). It broke the backbone of the UNP. Wickremesinghe chose Premadasa and became the Leader of the House in Parliament and then went on to become the Prime Minister after the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam’s (LTTE) assassination of President Premadasa. 

I was in my youth and I remember well; Lalith Athulathmudali was assassinated on 23 April 1993 in Kirulapone. On 1 May 1993, President Premadasa was assassinated by the LTTE. When the news broke of Premadasa’s assassination, I was in the middle of batting in a six-a-side cricket tournament. We were immediately asked to vacate the grounds. 

In October 1994, Gamini was assassinated by the LTTE during the Presidential Election campaign. He was the UNP presidential candidate. Within 18 months, Sri Lanka had lost three political leaders who could have shaped the country.

Defections and betrayals 

Fast forward to 2024. Defections and betrayals form the nature of politics. When President Mahinda Rajapaksa was in power, he engineered defections from the UNP. In November 2014, his party’s General Secretary and powerful Cabinet Minister, Maithripala Sirisena famously had dinner with him and next day declared his candidacy and beat him on 8 January 2015 to become the President with the support of Wickremesinghe. On 26 October 2018, Sirisena betrayed Wickremesinghe and appointed Mahinda as the Prime Minister until the seven-bench Supreme Court judgment reinstated Wickremesinghe. 

This week, SLPP patriarch Mahinda has to make a decision – either to sack the defectors or reunite. This could be one his toughest decisions in his over five decades in politics. Based on his decision, the complexity of the 21 September Presidential Election will take a decisive turn. 

From 16 August, it will be a brute-force presidential campaign and fake news will dominate. It will make strange bedfellows and dirty linen will be washed in public, shamelessly. In the midst of this, politicians will forget the real issues of people. The country will be at a standstill, watching another ‘House of Cards’. A much better one than the Netflix series. Frank Underwood, Claire Underwood, and the ‘House of Cards’ script is kids’ play when compared to Sri Lankan politics. 

Crucial juncture

At six on that Monday evening, when the three of us left the café, we were not amused by what was taking place. It’s deja vu. History is repeating. For a moment, I felt that the three of us lost our emotions. We had lost curiosity. We were still with poker faces. 

Sri Lanka is at a crucial juncture. That’s what we have been saying with every Presidential Election. Sri Lanka needs a president who is not afraid to lose but to be honest to people; who could provide an executable plan rather than a 33,000-foot policy booklet which the majority of the people does not understand; who could unite the people of this blessed land; who could be ruthless when needed but win the admiration of the people to navigate the next five years. 

Dudley Senanayake, former Prime Minister, the famous son of the soil, darling of the people, once said: “Millions have strived to serve their fellow beings; lesser still are those who leave their footprints in the sands of time, of whom only a handful have managed to change the destiny of mankind.” 

With all due respect, the great Dudley Senanayake would not have survived a week in this crude political power play. However, this is not only in Sri Lanka; look at the world, the complexity is beyond measure. It’s tough to be a president of a country anywhere, but Sri Lanka needs a leader who could leave footprints in the sands of time.