Having completed the first full week of campaigning since the official announcement of the 2024 Presidential Poll by the Election Commission, the contours of the campaigns of main contenders are beginning to surface, and, for the most part, they appear to lack imagination and are predictably anchored on the issue of the country’s bankruptcy; who did what, or did not, thereafter. While the Government appears to be going all out, even disregarding Election Commission directives on the use and abuse of State resources, the collective Opposition appears to be playing by the book and winning over support in the process as evidenced by the latest opinion polls.
The Government’s campaign seems to be founded on the notion that Sri Lanka’s economy had automatically ‘crashed’ and only Ranil Wickremesinghe had ‘dared’ to take on the ‘challenge’ to get things back on track. While this contention appears ‘marketable’ to an electorate where the majority will buy into anything on face value, it is one that is full of holes and could easily be hit out of the park should the Opposition choose to do so. What the campaign managers must keep in mind this time around is that whatever is said on election platforms must necessarily tally with people’s personal experience on the ground as it is they who endured the worst of the crisis and are well aware of the details – including who and what caused it.
Going by credible accounts of what actually transpired in early May 2022, leading to the transfer of power, the regime’s narrative of events is essentially rooted in deception and could literally open a can of worms should it be challenged in open fora – and there is no reason why the Opposition should not, for its own good and for the more noble reason of setting the record straight for the sake of posterity.
For instance, the notion of the country having ‘fallen’ into bankruptcy is essentially artful deception designed to shield those responsible and absolve them from blame. However, the truth of the matter is that bankruptcy was not something that Mother Nature decided to throw at Sri Lanka one fine morning in April 2022, but something that was a direct consequence of irresponsible and reckless governance, made worse by executive arrogance over a considerable period of time.
For all intents and purposes, the crisis did not take place overnight due to the pandemic – the foundation for it was laid just one month after Gotabaya Rajapaksa was sworn in as President in November 2019, when he decided to arbitrarily wipe out Rs. 600 billion in tax revenue. Therefore, the crisis had a gestation period of approximately two years and five months during which period the main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), to its credit, kept sounding the alarm almost on a daily basis of the impending calamity to no avail, while, interestingly enough, Wickremesinghe and his United National Party (UNP) maintained a deafening silence.
Subsequent Executive decisions like the overnight ban on chemical fertiliser – something that was proposed to be done gradually over a 10-year period, the reluctance to seek International Monetary Fund (IMF) intervention until it was way too late, and overnight devaluation of the rupee against the dollar thereafter contributed to making a bad case worse, but while the Opposition cried foul over every such decision, Wickremesinghe maintained a studied silence through it all. And when the Opposition’s prediction of bankruptcy became real, as history would recall, it was then that Wickremesinghe entered the picture. The rest, as they say, is history.
Therefore, the bottom line is that had the then regime heeded the Opposition’s constant warnings and advice, most notably on the need to seek IMF intervention as far back as 2021, the crisis in its current form could have been avoided and there would not have been a necessity for a rescue act in the absence of bankruptcy. What is clear is that the country did not ‘fall’ into the crisis it finds itself in, as made out to be, but was rather pushed into it by the actions and inaction of the former President, ably aided and abetted by his Cabinet and parliamentary cohorts – none of whom thought it fit to oppose those actions even when the writing was on the wall.
By default, those Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) MPs in Government today cannot absolve themselves of culpability for the crisis. Interestingly, these same MPs have now decided to ‘extend support’ to the incumbent President, who appears to be allowing desperation to get the better of him. As to how economic recovery can be achieved with the same set of individuals responsible for creating the crisis is the billion-dollar question.
One cannot discount the fact that the IMF, World Bank, United Nations Human Rights Council, and Sri Lanka’s own Supreme Court have all clearly spelt out that the crisis was brought upon the people of this nation by the actions of the previous regime. Therefore, to count those very same members as the bedrock on which the recovery effort is to be carried out defies logic unless the electors of this nation who go to the polls on 21 September wish to do just that: defy logic.
True enough, the former President is no longer in the job, but it is those who enabled him who are now enabling Wickremesinghe as well; a group he proudly described as the “best” when some 90 plus SLPP members decided to extend support to him last week. Just as these MPs cannot escape culpability for the former President’s disastrous actions that led to the economic crisis, they cannot do so a second time with the incumbent, whose arrogant actions appear to be no better than his predecessor, pushing the nation towards a new and more dangerous governance crisis where even Supreme Court decisions go unheeded. The fact that the President is continuing to resist appointing an acting IGP despite there being no barrier to do so and it being well within his ambit is not likely to inspire confidence at a time the regime can least afford to do so.
The President continuing to anchor his campaign on the economic crisis and harping about it while conveniently ignoring its causes is unlikely to go unnoticed among the increasingly astute youth electorate that roughly accounts for one-third of eligible voters and therefore could prove to be counterproductive. Instead, the UNP should engage in some soul-searching and recall why it was reduced to zero at the last General Election when the economy was in relatively better shape. Analysts have pointed out that the primary cause for voter dissatisfaction was non-fulfilment of the primary promise of going behind those accused of high crimes and corruption while the Easter attacks no doubt tilted the scales.
Just to jog the nation’s memory, 15 years after the event, journalist Lasantha Wickrematunge’s killers still roam free, the masterminds of the Easter attacks that snuffed out 270 innocent souls still roam free, and those responsible for mega scams that continue unabated are ignored with a nod and wink, while the IMF’s much-hyped Governance Diagnostic that outlined 16 serious governance deficiencies appear to be destined for cold storage, while promises are being made of a glorious future. Whether voters will be less unforgiving this time around, having given a clear message the last time, is worth watching.
It is apparent that the regime has taken for granted what the people wanted in 2022, especially when it had everything going for it at the time. Now, two years down the road, with an all-important election at hand, the regime will be hard-pressed to explain as to why there is no closure to any of the old festering wounds while new ones are being added on a daily basis.
Whether the reduction of prices of consumer essentials from bread to electricity to fuel to eggs will stop the questions from coming and lull the electorate into yet another state of complacency or stifle the main Opposition’s rapid gains in opinion polls, we will have to wait and see.