President Ranil Wickremesinghe announced for the first time at the last Cabinet meeting that he would contest the next Presidential Election. Many in the inner political circles believed that he would gracefully retire from politics, and some politicians, including Wimal Weerawansa, openly predicted the end of Wickremesinghe’s political career.
We have seen the ‘common candidacy’ narrative in 2010 and 2015, courtesy of Fonseka and Sirisena, and this time, it is likely to be an ‘independent candidate’ forging a massive alliance of unlikely bedfellows.
On 15 December, the wiley Mahinda Rajapaksa made one of his best ‘political speeches’ at the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) convention at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium. He looked both tired and angry. The speech was curated, but the supremo delivered a speech to ignite his followers. His speech pivoted on the ‘war victory’ to reinforce his contribution to the nation.
He attacked Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) without naming them. There was a fire in his eyes and anger on his face. The JVP, which played a significant role in making the senior Rajapaksa the President in 2005, is now clearly the enemy.
The Rajapaksa speech was good for his ardent followers, but for no one else. Monitoring 6,700 digital conversations for various imagery and content, the overwhelming majority attacked Rajapaksa by quickly pointing out assassinations under his presidency to counter his narrative of “we don’t have blood on our hands”. On digital media, there were hardly any defenders, which reflects the shyness of the Rajapaksa fan base.
However, the hardcore fans had a boost in morale to see their patriarch being back. Mahinda Rajapaksa is the party, and without him, it will be obsolete. Two weeks ago, I wrote that the SLPP would turn its guns to the JVP, as its rise in public opinion was mainly from the SLPP bloc and the floating vote.
If Mahinda was vague, Basil Rajapaksa was clear, even threatening the “don’t play with us” narrative in a hard-hitting speech. Inside the SLPP, the flock is satisfied that they are back in the saddle, and the grassroots is igniting after months of self-exile from politics.
The JVP campaign
AKD chose the Borella and Kelaniya events to lambast the Rajapaksas with the usual narrative of corruption, nepotism, and manipulation. The Rajapaksas used a teleprompter to attack, and AKD used his signature style of impromptu speeches with an engaged audience.
This time, AKD shot at the ‘VVIP culture’ and vowed to punish the elite society once they were in power. Punishing the rich is a popular narrative in Sri Lanka; it resonates well with the middle and lower-middle class. The AKD/JVP narrative is a chilling threat to the privileged 1% of the country. It’s easier said than done, but any punishment should follow due process, and it will be interesting to see the action plan for punishing the corrupt.
In a country like Sri Lanka, where corruption is top to bottom and bottom to top, this will be an arduous task for any leader. The 2015 presidential campaign was run on the same narrative; everyone knows how it ended. Expectations were high that the corrupt would be punished, but it ended up in an anticlimax, enabling a return to the Rajapaksas from 2018 onward and a resounding win for Gotabaya Rajapaksa, courtesy of national security.
Whether AKD can walk the talk will be an epic case study. The JVP has many digital assets to communicate its message to the public; the anti-VVIP threat was given using a proxy YouTube channel with 207,000 followers. The JVP social media activation is brilliant, with some form of AI and quality but low-cost productions with many new faces. It’s the same message delivered in different tones and by different messengers.
The JVP’s trouble primarily comes from within the hardcore cadre. The new fame game of a possible ascendency to power is virgin ground for the hardcore. These hardcore JVPers are simple, with frugal lifestyles and strong Marxist ideology engraved into their brains.
Since the formation of the JVP in 1965, due to two rebellions and the surrounding circumstances, by choice, they have been living a life avoiding any limelight. AKD may have changed his attire, but the hardcore JVPer has not changed. They are what they are. Nothing wrong with it.
The JVP’s real trouble
The real trouble for the JVP in the public is their own K.D. Lalkantha. He is free-spirited and uncontrollable. Lal always speaks his mind and lives his way. He is the outlier within the party. He defies rules and is now more outspoken about it.
Lal faced two YouTube interviews in the last couple of weeks and narrated his free-spirited ideology of life. He spoke about the importance of the JVP becoming an inclusive party if it were to govern the country. He talked like a true liberal, even about sexuality and gender issues. Also, he squashed the idea of people paying him to live, a popular notion that the JVP has narrated for an extended period.
Lal’s name had surfaced many times in claims that he would leave the JVP to join another party like many others, as Weerawansa did. Critics on social media have questioned whether Lalkantha is deliberately damaging AKD/the JVP. A militant in his admission, Lal served the JVP for 42 years. It’s a known secret that no one can control him inside the party. Watch him closely; a man of his vintage is an asset to anyone.
‘One-man show’
Last week, I wrote about the importance of moving away from the ‘one-man show’ theory. A flurry of messengers in the form of Kanchana Wijesekera, Shehan Semasinghe, Premitha Bandara Tennakoon, Dilum Amunugama, and Prasanna Ranatunga batted for Wickremesinghe in unison.
The star was Wijesekera, who speaks and acts fearlessly despite the flack he is receiving. He labelled the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) engineers union as a “terrorist organisation” and was bold enough to declare that CEB employees would not get bonuses and the customary 25% increment. Also, in and out of Parliament, he fiercely challenged AKD to public debate and called his bluff. Semasinghe narrated the IMF story well and sided with Wickremesinghe publicly. Tennakoon did the unthinkable, cutting off the Army deployment from the Mihintale temple.
All the above politicians are from politically-solid families, and, under Wickremesinghe, they have found the mojo. Common to all is that they were Rajapaksa loyalists now openly siding with President Wickremesinghe. Nothing new; when you are in power, even your enemies will get into bed with you, and when you lose control, even loyal friends will leave your house.
While Kanchana Wijesekera took on the CEB trade unions, it will be interesting to see the reaction from the JVP-controlled trade unions. If electricity is interrupted, AKD will be the fall guy. Is this a strategic political play?
‘Restructuring’ SOEs
A few days ago, President Wickremesinghe kept reminding the audience that he brought stability to the country when everyone ran away from the responsibility. He said, do it my way or let’s continue bankruptcy to 2024. He coined the word restructuring and moved away from the famous word that is reforms.
Many State enterprises are up for sale, including SriLankan Airlines and Sri Lanka Telecom. The restructuring or reforms within the next eight months ahead of the Presidential Elections is a mammoth political risk no one has taken up so far. One of the listed State enterprises (group) made a cumulative loss of Rs. 2.7 billion while generating Rs. 80 billion in revenue for YTD 2023. The interest expense and financial costs were a whopping Rs. 8.3 billion.
Trade unions are up in arms against the privatisation/restructuring and street protests are underway. It will be politically suicidal for the JVP to lead protests, which will create a fear psychosis among the business community and the top executives in the country. Today, businesses and the public are paying for the mismanagement of loss-making State enterprises. The heavy taxation is crippling any competitive advantage the country’s corporates and SMEs have and senior professionals have to pay one-third of their salaries in tax. ‘For what?’ they ask.
Religious leaders in the news
Two religious leaders created news last week. First one was Ven. Mihintale Dhammarathana Thera, who continues to attack politicians but with a soft corner for Premadasa. This week, he made news for attacking AKD for being an atheist and stated that JVPers were atheists. JVP social media followers could be very nasty, too. They did what was expected of them. Brute narrative was in play.
The other was Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith singing the evergreen ‘Mango Kalu Nande’. Archbishops have sung plenty of hymns, but a song in public? This is the first time. Some applauded his singing skills. The other was when he made a statement that he had informed former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to avoid appointing Ali Sabry as the minister of justice in wake of the Easter attacks. The Cardinal went on to say that he had changed his mind after learning that there was another conspiracy behind the attack.
Next 21 April, it will be five years since the Easter attacks and many are looking for justice, irrespective of their religious views. Just after the Easter attacks, Cardinal Ranjith was the most loved person in Sri Lanka for preventing a possible religious war. In fact, he healed the nation from 21 April 2019 onward and many took to social media to wish him to get the next Nobel Prize. No religious leader in the country’s contemporary history had received so much love. However, his statements and actions now are always seen from a political lens, especially in an election cycle, and it’s inevitable given the country’s history.
Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha Thera was the prime mover of the Yahapalana campaign in 2015. The wrath he got from Rajapaksa fans until his demise was brutal. Politics and religion are two extremes. There is no middle path.
Presidential Election
AKD will be the enemy of all. That’s precisely what AKD wants as well. That’s the only way AKD will have currency in the campaign. Again, if it’s a three-horse race, it will most likely be a second vote for the first time. Sajith Premadasa is the man to watch now.
Will it be Wickremesinghe, Premadasa, and AKD with some outliers in 2024? Or will there be an emergence of a superwoman in the race? Will we have six powerful candidates on the ballot list? The last two Presidential Elections had over 80% voter turnout.
People are tired and hopeless and have given up right now. How many will stay away from voting as a mark of protest? Adults may vote, but the youth stay away from the political discourse. The modern-day youth are impatient and quick to decide, but they are firm. Their parents’ political colour does not bind them. The world over, party affiliations are crumbling and political rallies are confined to indoor stadiums. The scrutiny on leaders is increasing.
The winner in the Presidential Election needs 50% + one vote to win and advance the country. Whoever takes the mantle will have sleepless nights, trouble, criticism, extreme geopolitical power play, and disgruntled people to look after.